Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

Regards the Arsenal v Man City game and the point made earlier about there being goals.  

That was my first thought too I then looked at the prices and I was less keen on that.  Man City need to win to keep alive having a shot at the title.  For that reason  I can see Mancini nitting up and tryng to contain Arsenal and nick one on the counter.  

Arsenal will play out a game that will see them launch wave of attack after attack but so often they try and score the perfect goal which results in less goals for them than there should be.  

Additionally, the super sunday games tend not to live up to expectations.

I'd tend to air on the side of caution though and back under 3.5 goals @ 4/9.  

A little late but in the Man United v QPR game I have backed under 2.5 goals at 3.0 on betfair with the intention of laying the bet off in play, this has been a bet that has worked quite well for me in TV games this season.  

Regardless if we know this person or not, the thoughts about Arsenal v Man City was spot on. Wp.

Well I'd agree if it wasn't for the fact that the post doesn't really make sense. He thought there would be goals. Then when he saw the price, he seems to be saying that he thought there wouldn't be goals.
I mean I can understand if he felt the price wasn't good but that's not really what he said. His analysis of the game seemed to play out but I think most people/pundits seemed pretty surprised at how unadventerous City were. Their actual lineup wasn't defensive on paper and I'm not sure that was Mancinis intention, it was just that Arsenal overran them, particularly in the 1st half. That may have been a result of the changes with Silva not being available, Aguero not being fit (?), Balotelli being a nutcase and Yaya going off injured early.
In any case, what he predicted is indeed what happened but if he believed it, he probably should have suggested the not many goals (under 2.5 goals) instead of suggesting a very short price on there not being a lot of goals (under 3.5) @ 4/9. A 4/9 shot? Who wants that unless it's really an absolute banker?
I thought it was a strange post.

Having said that, I think he was 4/4 on total goals bets so maybe he was shrewd enough?

[Bad Beat]

 Happy to take evs that it isn't me. Slightly curious as to why you guys thought it might be.

[Horneris]

I think Stoke are worth a punt tomorrow @ 13/5 (VC) in the tea time kick off.

If you don't already have a VC account you should get one as they often have best price football imo. How long they will let you bet it is another matter.

Anyway, Villa's line up is likely to include players like Baker in CB with Crouch and possibly Jerome to deal with, Lichaj out of position on the left with Pennant to deal with, Herd, Bannan (out of position on the right of midfield), Warnock (out of position in midfield) and the kid Weimann up front.

Chance N'Zogbia and Jenas could be rushed back but doubtful and even if they are then they won't be firing on all cylinders.

Imo this is a shocking premier league line up and the players will be tired after the heroic (but lucky) point at Liverpool.

Fancy Stoke to bully them in every position and am confident that they have enough experience to come away with a rare away victory. I make Stoke about 21/10 and would be happy to back them @ 9/4, 23/10+.

[pleno1]

lol why would you offer evens???

[pleno1]

wheres it at brent?  i assume away? Good price imo, but  stoke always seem useless away from home, part of stokes drive and never die mentality is from their 12th man and the fact their pitch is very narrow and short.

I would definitely be betting the unders on 2.5 though, neither team looks to have much creativity with keane/bent both not available for selection for different reasons.

[Horneris]

wheres it at brent?  i assume away? Good price imo, but  stoke always seem useless away from home, part of stokes drive and never die mentality is from their 12th man and the fact their pitch is very narrow and short.

I would definitely be betting the unders on 2.5 though, neither team looks to have much creativity with keane/bent both not available for selection for different reasons.

Yeah fair point, I've done 1-0 Stoke in my predictions league, doubtful to be a high scoring affair.

Could rest a few is the only worry, but I think even the likes of Palacios, K.Jones and Woodgate can cope with this Villa side.

[tikay]

Happy to take evs that it isn't me. Slightly curious as to why you guys thought it might be.

I have no idea why people thought it was you, Neil, & I hope it did not offend, apologies if it did. Anyone who knows you would instantly know that it is not something you'd do.

On with the thread.

[Josedinho]

Re: Bristol City tip -
1. Congrats for calling Forest Notts Forest - really is amazing how annoying this is for Forest fans, really makes me smile.
2. In the Forest - Bristol game there was some stat about how Bristol got their points this season, basically sounded if they do really well against bottom 5 teams and pretty poor against everyone else. Cov have been picking up points and Bristol still needed their keeper to be MOTM so I'll not be betting on it but have Cov and Pompey to go down so really want a Bristol win.

[Josedinho]

RE: Crawley - rumours that management team has walked and gone to Rotherham. Couldn't back them in those circumstances.

[tikay]

RE: Crawley - rumours that management team has walked and gone to Rotherham. Couldn't back them in those circumstances.

Thanks for this, & the other steer, all noted.

[tikay]

Update, 10am Monday April 9th

April Account  - 11am April 8th.

Investments

Fraser, Blackburn DNB, (lost, £40)

DoubleUp, Westwood, Masters, (£20, WON (placed), returned £60)

horseplayer, SL opening p'ship, (£30, WON, returned £56)

horseplayer, Masters Debut, Garrigus (£10 @ 16/1, BS, lost)

hummuspie, Swindon, Swindon, (WON, £50 @ 17/20, returned £92.50)

Dazzler, Bolton, (£25 @ 7/4, Bet365, lost)

Eso Kral, Walsall, (£25 @ Evens, BS, WON, returned £50)

Matt50, Mumbai Indians, IPL, (£25 @ 9/2, BS, unsettled)

Silo, Chelsea, CL, (£25 @ 1.75, Betfair, WON, returned £43.50)

Bobby, Cantlay, (£3 EW, LOST) (converted to £3 EW from $5 EW)

Bobby, Cantlay, £5 @ 960, Betfair, lost) 

ACE2M, Rose, (£25 @ 7/2, BetVictor, lost)

Fraser, Hull, (£50 @ 13/10, BetVictor, lost)

Tighty, LAY SL-Eng Draw (£49 to win £25, Betfair, WON, returned £74)

Henrik, 72 hole MB Carbera etc, (£25, lost)

tikay, 18 hole MB, Carbera (lost)

Fraser, Wigan, DNB (£10, lost)

Fraser, Norwich v Everton DNB (£25, Draw, returned £25)

Jennymar, Over 2.5 goals, Coventry (£25 @ 4/5, WON, returned £45)

ACE2M, Westwood Top 5 (£25, returned £52.88)

TOTAL Invested (April) = £521
________________________________

Returns

horseplayer, SL openers, £56

hummuspie, Swindon, £92.50

Silo, Chelsea, £43.50

Tighty, SL-England, £74

Fraser, Norwich, DNB, £25

Jennymar, Cov v Posh Goals, £45

Eso Kral, Walsall, £50

DoubleUp, Westwood, £60

ACE2M, Westwood Top 5, £52.88

Total returns £498.88

_________________________________


Profit/Loss April

£521 - £499= £22.00 loss, including £25 unsettled.

Unsettled bets carried forward - Anderson, Barnet (x2),£150, all of which has been accounted for in prev months accounts.

Unsettled bets April, Mumbai IPL, (1 bet, £25)

[tikay]

Daily Summary.


Well we are just about break even now, so we ain't gonna go busto yet, or be able to retire. Good fun for free, though.

Pretty pleased to escape fom the Masters without much damage, it is easy to get carried away with the euphoria, & all the potential "value" bets.

The DoubleUp Westwood bet was perfect, 4 days of fun, & always in with a chance of scooping, the ACE2M touch was a little icing on the cake. The Carbera 72 hole bet was good value, too, very uppy downy.

Have wiped all the other Masters bets from "unsettled" now, & we only have £25 in-running, being the IPL Mumbai Chaps, so we are near break-even as makes no difference.

Well done to Sandy on his "hole in one" nap.

Missed quite a few bets yesterday, for various reasons, hope you all got paid.

A few tips have been put up for today, but I will be offline for a goodly while, so may or may not get them all on. Will deffo be getting Horneris's bet on though, the rest I need to look at first.

Hope you all have an enjoyable & profitable Easter Monday.

[tikay]

I think Stoke are worth a punt tomorrow @ 13/5 (VC) in the tea time kick off.

If you don't already have a VC account you should get one as they often have best price football imo. How long they will let you bet it is another matter.

Anyway, Villa's line up is likely to include players like Baker in CB with Crouch and possibly Jerome to deal with, Lichaj out of position on the left with Pennant to deal with, Herd, Bannan (out of position on the right of midfield), Warnock (out of position in midfield) and the kid Weimann up front.

Chance N'Zogbia and Jenas could be rushed back but doubtful and even if they are then they won't be firing on all cylinders.

Imo this is a shocking premier league line up and the players will be tired after the heroic (but lucky) point at Liverpool.

Fancy Stoke to bully them in every position and am confident that they have enough experience to come away with a rare away victory. I make Stoke about 21/10 and would be happy to back them @ 9/4, 23/10+.

I missed your "best" price, but got 5/2, which is at the top end of your suggested value range, so seems fine to me as to price.

ON

£40, Betvictor, @ 5/2

Aston Villa v Stoke City
Stoke City
(Match Betting)
Odds:  5/2
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  140.00

[tikay]

Not sure this is a bet for Tikay but I like Wycombe at Chesterfield. They are 9/5 (bet victor) to win but I prefer 11/10 DNB with PP or ladbrokes (I've used Bobby 1's formula and DNB price is good).

Wycombe have been playing well, fighting for their League One lives and have had good results against teams like MK Dons and beaten some lower teams away comfortably. Chesterfield have conceded 11 goals in their last 3 games.

Perhaps a more seasoned member of this forum would give a view.

Thanks Rick.

ON

£40, Ladbrokes, DNB, @ 11/10.

Selection11/10 - Wycombe

EventChesterfield v Wycombe English

MarketDraw No Bet
 Your bets (1) Single - Wycombe
1 line at £40.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential Return: £84.00
Time: 09/04/12 10:27
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000007

[tikay]

if there are others I have missed, remind me please, I will be back Online later, gotta go now.