Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary

For the first time ever, I think, since we began, on March 1st, we had no action at all yesterday.

Hopefully, that signals selective betting, rather than betting for the sake of it. It might, of course, signal waning interest!

There was only one football match of note last night, & it really looked from the outset NOT to be a match to get involved in, & I'm glad we did not. There may have been value there somewhere, but not much, all things considered, so it was a good swerve imo.

We have nothing lined up today so far, either, but thats fine - less is more sometimes.

Tomorrow, the Grand National meeting commences. We will tread warily on that one, but I'm sure there will be some value there somewhere, if only we can find it. 

[geordieneil]

The relegation battle this season is getting interesting, and looking at the run in fixtures it could well be the lowest ever total to stop up. last year 40 points, and the previous 10 years are 35, 35, 36, 38, 35, 34, 34, 43, 37, 35.
  Wolves look dead and buried and Villa have a 7 point cushion, so the remaining 2 relegation spots are between Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan and QPR. The run ins for Wigan and QPR are both tough and just can't see them picking up enough points to avoid the drop. QPR are currently on 28 points and I just can't see them getting anymore than 33 or34 points they are 2.1 on BF to be relegated 5/6 best priced else where.


   Another interesting battle is "the top promoted side".....between QPR, Swansea and Norwich. with QPR out of it, Norwich are currently 4 points ahead of Swansea with Swansea playing 1 less, but the run ins are very different, Norwich have 5 tough games that I can't see them getting much from....Man Citeh(h) Blackburn(a) Liverpool(h) Arsenal(a) AstonVilla(h) if they got more than 4 points out of them I would be surprised. Swansea have IMO been a very good side this season but have recently slid down the table after 3 straight defeats Everton, Newcastle and Spurs (3 top 7 sides) but had great wins against Fulham (a) and Man Citeh(h) the previous 2......they have QPR(a) Blackburn(h) Bolton(a) Wolves(h) Manure (a) Liverpool (h) I would guess they need 8 or 9 points from them games to finish above Norwich but 2.4 on BF has got to be value

[tikay]

The relegation battle this season is getting interesting, and looking at the run in fixtures it could well be the lowest ever total to stop up. last year 40 points, and the previous 10 years are 35, 35, 36, 38, 35, 34, 34, 43, 37, 35.
  Wolves look dead and buried and Villa have a 7 point cushion, so the remaining 2 relegation spots are between Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan and QPR. The run ins for Wigan and QPR are both tough and just can't see them picking up enough points to avoid the drop. QPR are currently on 28 points and I just can't see them getting anymore than 33 or34 points they are 2.1 on BF to be relegated 5/6 best priced else where.


   Another interesting battle is "the top promoted side".....between QPR, Swansea and Norwich. with QPR out of it, Norwich are currently 4 points ahead of Swansea with Swansea playing 1 less, but the run ins are very different, Norwich have 5 tough games that I can't see them getting much from....Man Citeh(h) Blackburn(a) Liverpool(h) Arsenal(a) AstonVilla(h) if they got more than 4 points out of them I would be surprised. Swansea have IMO been a very good side this season but have recently slid down the table after 3 straight defeats Everton, Newcastle and Spurs (3 top 7 sides) but had great wins against Fulham (a) and Man Citeh(h) the previous 2......they have QPR(a) Blackburn(h) Bolton(a) Wolves(h) Manure (a) Liverpool (h) I would guess they need 8 or 9 points from them games to finish above Norwich but 2.4 on BF has got to be value

Two interesting ones there, thank you.

The relegation one - QPR @ 2.1 on Betfair, that seems reasonable to me.

Of the "top promoted side", I had Norwich in my mind as the better of the two - marginally - but I agree, that run-in of theirs is a bit daunting.

I'll have a look around - & a listen - but both bets are of the type I could enjoy, & have a decent medium term sweat on, assuming the price is right.

Thanks again, & well done if you got on Newcastle Top 4 @ 11/1

[redarmi]

Not so sure about the QPR bet.  I went to the Blackburn game last night and they are so, so poor and, worse, the fans are completely against Kean.  I would be amazed if they don't go down and on that basis alone I am not sure 11/10 is value on QPR to go down.

[tikay]

Not so sure about the QPR bet.  I went to the Blackburn game last night and they are so, so poor and, worse, the fans are completely against Kean.  I would be amazed if they don't go down and on that basis alone I am not sure 11/10 is value on QPR to go down.

Tx Red, feedback appreciated, as always.

"Sentiment" is a bad thing when punting, obv, but I really want Blackburn to survive, just because of the Kean factor. He showed, once again last night, such dignity. But that's no reason to bet one way or another, of course.

In contrast, Dalglish's post-match interview never impressed much.

[Sighmuns]

I am going to get shot down for after timing, but the Liverpool game too me was the sort of bet camel started the betting against the tide thread about imho in normal circumstances Liverpool would of been odds on but with the semi coming up resting players and recent form issues I think the market had swang 2 far against Liverpool

I think Liverpool odds on for that game would have been crazy pricing, but I took on board your earlier comments about the new players coming in and freshening up the squad. Coupled with the article that Tighty posted in the Liverpool FC thread (http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2012/apr/10/the-question-steven-gerrard-liverpool?CMP=twt_gu was enough for me to change my mind.

[horseplayer]

personally despite the fact they have a fairly tough run in i would not rule out Wigan. They have been here before and recovered from worse positions , they have an undeniable team spirit (not sure the same can be said of blackburn or qpr (though they seem to be improving slightly) and the management are under no pressure whatsoever in terms of job security (plus they are playing really well and picking up results)

Personally i would like to see them stay up anyway as i have a lot of time for martinez/whelan.

[tikay]

The Premiership relegation odds are below.

The prices look skinny, but that is presumably because it is effectively any 3 from 6, of which one is assumed down already, so any 2 from 5 in reality.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

[horseplayer]

recommended aintree special bet

bet suggestion £40 at 11-10 stan james

the bet is biggest winning sp 33-1 - 50-1 sp inclusive during the aintree festival.

This is a stats based bet , in the last ten years this bet would have landed in nine of these ten years. Interestingly the only year it failed was in 2009 were all 3 winners during this period of over 50-1 occured (possible freak year or just luck?). The ground is going to be good-good to soft which has been the normal going over this period.

Betfair have a market for this to of which i have managed to get a small amount matched at a slightly higher price than 11-10, however currently evens looks the very best available there. Stan james were laying 5-4 yesterday but i still feel anything above 4-5 is a very good price.

[tikay]

recommended aintree special bet

bet suggestion £40 at 11-10 stan james

the bet is biggest winning sp 33-1 - 50-1 sp inclusive during the aintree festival.

This is a stats based bet , in the last ten years this bet would have landed in nine of these ten years. Interestingly the only year it failed was in 2009 were all 3 winners during this period of over 50-1 occured (possible freak year or just luck?). The ground is going to be good-good to soft which has been the normal going over this period.

Betfair have a market for this to of which i have managed to get a small amount matched at a slightly higher price than 11-10, however currently evens looks the very best available there. Stan james were laying 5-4 yesterday but i still feel anything above 4-5 is a very good price.

Interesting, & unless some parameter has moved, 9 times in 10 years seems extraordinary.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/season-specials/aintree-festival/biggest-winning-sp

[ACE2M]

Not a bet for the thread but interesting for the punters

Marseille v Montpelier - Montpellier are very short away from home (ignoring league positions) because Marseille will not wish to win as it gives PSG a better chance for the french league title. Marseille hate PSG.

Doubt there is any value in it now but interesting to watch the outcome.

[The Camel]

The relegation battle this season is getting interesting, and looking at the run in fixtures it could well be the lowest ever total to stop up. last year 40 points, and the previous 10 years are 35, 35, 36, 38, 35, 34, 34, 43, 37, 35.
  Wolves look dead and buried and Villa have a 7 point cushion, so the remaining 2 relegation spots are between Bolton, Blackburn, Wigan and QPR. The run ins for Wigan and QPR are both tough and just can't see them picking up enough points to avoid the drop. QPR are currently on 28 points and I just can't see them getting anymore than 33 or34 points they are 2.1 on BF to be relegated 5/6 best priced else where.


   Another interesting battle is "the top promoted side".....between QPR, Swansea and Norwich. with QPR out of it, Norwich are currently 4 points ahead of Swansea with Swansea playing 1 less, but the run ins are very different, Norwich have 5 tough games that I can't see them getting much from....Man Citeh(h) Blackburn(a) Liverpool(h) Arsenal(a) AstonVilla(h) if they got more than 4 points out of them I would be surprised. Swansea have IMO been a very good side this season but have recently slid down the table after 3 straight defeats Everton, Newcastle and Spurs (3 top 7 sides) but had great wins against Fulham (a) and Man Citeh(h) the previous 2......they have QPR(a) Blackburn(h) Bolton(a) Wolves(h) Manure (a) Liverpool (h) I would guess they need 8 or 9 points from them games to finish above Norwich but 2.4 on BF has got to be value

Two interesting ones there, thank you.

The relegation one - QPR @ 2.1 on Betfair, that seems reasonable to me.

Of the "top promoted side", I had Norwich in my mind as the better of the two - marginally - but I agree, that run-in of theirs is a bit daunting.

I'll have a look around - & a listen - but both bets are of the type I could enjoy, & have a decent medium term sweat on, assuming the price is right.

Thanks again, & well done if you got on Newcastle Top 4 @ 11/1

'Reasonable' analysis does not = good analysis unless you can turn it into [accurate] prices. The phrase 'I just can't see' means 'I haven't taken into account the very real probability of...'

I've been getting with Bolton+Blackburn relegation this morning, so wouldn't be touching QPR there with a barge pole.

7/4 Bolton to be relegated looks very big to me.

[ForthThistle]

Not a bet for the thread but interesting for the punters

Marseille v Montpelier - Montpellier are very short away from home (ignoring league positions) because Marseille will not wish to win as it gives PSG a better chance for the french league title. Marseille hate PSG.

Doubt there is any value in it now but interesting to watch the outcome.

Top Tipping.
Many Thanks.

[Snowball]

Not a bet for the thread but interesting for the punters

Marseille v Montpelier - Montpellier are very short away from home (ignoring league positions) because Marseille will not wish to win as it gives PSG a better chance for the french league title. Marseille hate PSG.

Doubt there is any value in it now but interesting to watch the outcome.

The Marseille Fans were releasing statements saying under no circumstances should their Players wanT to win this match as is their hatred for PSG.

[horseplayer]

good shout with the french game

what a performance from wigan superb controlled football