Tips for Tikay

[Graham C]

to be honest I was uncomfortable enough accepting money from Tony, I really don't think more should be passed around.  I can take my own responsibilty for sending money, I'm pretty sure it's never going to be a great thing to do when you send a random stranger £200 even if Dubai and Tikay are involved

Lesson learned.

[tikay]

If we can't punt the Arsenal match, there is always the Elite Speedway (live on Sky Sports), HUGE meeting tonight, the Swindon whatsits v the Coventry so & so's. Unmissable, there's gotta be some value there......

[Graham C]

If we can't punt the Arsenal match, there is always the Elite Speedway (live on Sky Sports), HUGE meeting tonight, the Swindon whatsits v the Coventry so & so's. Unmissable, there's gotta be some value there......

What do we know about speedway?


That's bikes right

[RickBFA]

I have a question for Bobby1 or anyone with the knowledge.

Earlier in this thread you mentioned needing a larger sample of bets to cut out the effects of variance and to establish whether a strategy was really profitable.

Is there a timescale/number of bets where you can safely think variance can be discounted as a factor?

As an example, my spreadsheet since logging bets and betting on single football matches in a disciplined fashion has 191 entries. Would 500 bets or a 1000 bets give you a clear picture of real success or failure??

It depends on the odds and what you're doing. If you're betting short odds stuff, your winrate will converge in less bets, obv if you're betting 33/1+ shots all the time you're gonna need a massive sample. You can get a good idea of your true winrate if you're betting Asians/Totals by looking at closing price, but for others you're looking purely at your results. If you're betting the match odds, you could probably compare to Betfair close as well and get a good idea where you stand. If you're ahead of the moves on average, %-wise, you're probably good, if you're losing 1-2% each time, you're in for losing probably.

However, like my draw bet the amount to bet is important and  and I would hate to see Tikay investing more than £20 on a bet that like mine is more than likely going to be a loser. Is the bet value? Well on that " I haven't got a scooby!"

Kelly Stake. You need to be able to (roughly) define your edge under Kelly, but if you can't do that, well, you're probably not going to win anyway.

Horseplayer has a thread on here tipping up horses, I think his figs at the moment are losing, but he is putting up win bets on big priced horses that a lot of the time get shorter. Given he is going to back so few winners at those prices it needs a lot of bets to work thru to get a complete picture because 15 losers can be turned around in 1-2 bets.

If you are betting football teams then 191 is still a small sample but 500 just gives you more information and so on 1000. If you are winning after 191 bets tho, you are deffo doing good things. What might help too is if you split those bets into all different types. You will then see clearly where you are doing well and where you are doing so so. I had a light bulb moment years ago when I mined my own data and saw how completely clueless I was at cricket betting. I think its prob saved me a few quid since then by admitting I was just a bad judge and simply eliminating it.

Thanks guys. My bets are all football singles and the vast majority, 90% plus, are above even money. Part of my philosophy is to try to avoid backing odds on unless I think it's really great value - this might be a mistake BTW. I'm sure I've had a chunk of good fortune as my ROI is 10.06% and from your previous comments it seems this level of ROI is unlikely to continue.

I will take your comments on board and do an analysis of these bets and see where I have been successful or made mistakes.

[Sighmuns]

To continue the 'value' discussion, does anyone think that Van Persie to score at anytime should have been 1.57 tonight?

[Graham C]

Lol Wigan winning

[tikay]

1-0 Wigan!

[Sighmuns]

WOW.

[tikay]

2-0!

[outragous76]

pretty sure I am the only person on blonde wanting wigan to survive1!!

gogogogoooooo

[tikay]

I think Wigan should be backed tomorrow but I'm not sure the best way to do it. Maybe split it up?

£10 win dnb @ 9/1 generally available.
£25 win +1.5 goals @ 10/9 with 188Bet.

Wigans last 6 have been:
1-1 (a) Norwich. Should have won.
1-1 (h) West Brom. Should have won.
2-1 (a) Pool. Maybe somewhat fortunate but not overly so.
2-0 (h) Stoke. Comfortable.
1-2 (a) Chelsea. Both Chelsea goals were offside.
1-0 (h) Man Utd. Ferguson said they were the best side.

They are a pretty decent side when their tails are up and they are just flying at the moment. They could easily have won 5 and at least drawn with Chelsea in those 6. And they have lost just 2 of their last 10 Prem games.
Their problem is their lack of quality up front which is why they were unable to finish off both Norwich and West Brom but the defence is solid and if we take away those 2 Chelsea offside goals, they've just conceded 3 in those 6 games. Hugo Rodallega is back training and is to be assessed before the game after being out for a month. Although he has hardly played this year, he is their most talented striker and it would be a bonus if he could even make the bench. Even if he is fit, Martinez probably will keep the same starting lineup that beat United.
Their away record isn't stellar, W4 D 3 L9 but their current form is way better than those stats. In their 16 away games they've scored exactly 1 per game and conceded exactly 2 per game and a 1-2 defeat would suffice to make a small profit on the bet.

Now clearly Arsenal aren't the 'average' home side. They have been in excellent form since that 4-0 defeat in Milan. Their last 6 games have yielded 5 wins and 1 defeat, scoring 11 and conceding 3. They have won well against 2 weak sides (3-0 against both Wolves and Villa) and won narrow 1 goal victories over 3 good sides (Everton, City, Newcastle) and of course lost 2-1 to QPR in a surprisingly flat performance (which we'd like to see repeated!).
With Koscielny suspended Djourou is likely to play and he has looked far from assured this season. Gibbs is rated 50/50 and if he doesn't play, the inexperienced (in Prem terms) Santos is likely to fill in.
RVP is obviously the main goal threat for Arsenal but he has scored just once in the last 5 games. He's had an incredible season and he's not playing badly but he's played nearly every minute of every Arsenal game this season. He's already played nearly twice as many minutes as he's averaged in the past 5 seasons and is way over his previous personal high. Whisper it softly but is he suffering fatigue?
As both teams like to play possession football, it will hopefully lead to a lot of faffing and farting about and a low scoring game.

Anyway, an obviously difficult game but whilst Wigans recent form is decent, I think it's actually even better than the bare stats suggest and I think they can get us a result here (particularly with the +1.5).

Would appreciate some shrewdies views.

Enjoy that, Mr Dazzler. I think someone else tipped it, too - I'll take a look.

[claypole]

Never doubt the Dazzler lololol

[ACE2M]

Egg on my face at 10pm tomoro night

Remember laying Ace an inflated price on Newcastle to prove a point, obviously luckiest win in history proceeded

So nearly took you up on laying some Wigan tonight just for kicks.

[tikay]

Not over yet, by any means.

1-2

[doubleup]

To continue the 'value' discussion, does anyone think that Van Persie to score at anytime should have been 1.57 tonight?

think that is a bit short.