Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

pretty sure I am the only person on blonde wanting wigan to survive1!!

gogogogoooooo

1-2

Gooooo Wigan.  

aftertiming FTW.  Cheers for pointing out the value Dazzler.  Was 12/1 on betfair earlier.

[Doobs]

pretty sure I am the only person on blonde wanting wigan to survive1!!

gogogogoooooo

I am firmly in the camp that Venky's and the Blackburn fans deserve relegation.  The former obviously and the latter for the abuse they have given Steve Kean.  Which links nicely to Wolves, the section of their fans that gave McCarthy so much grief deserve their fate too. 

Ofc I'd like Steve Kean to stay up!

[bobby1]

I have a question for Bobby1 or anyone with the knowledge.

Earlier in this thread you mentioned needing a larger sample of bets to cut out the effects of variance and to establish whether a strategy was really profitable.

Is there a timescale/number of bets where you can safely think variance can be discounted as a factor?

As an example, my spreadsheet since logging bets and betting on single football matches in a disciplined fashion has 191 entries. Would 500 bets or a 1000 bets give you a clear picture of real success or failure??

It depends on the odds and what you're doing. If you're betting short odds stuff, your winrate will converge in less bets, obv if you're betting 33/1+ shots all the time you're gonna need a massive sample. You can get a good idea of your true winrate if you're betting Asians/Totals by looking at closing price, but for others you're looking purely at your results. If you're betting the match odds, you could probably compare to Betfair close as well and get a good idea where you stand. If you're ahead of the moves on average, %-wise, you're probably good, if you're losing 1-2% each time, you're in for losing probably.

However, like my draw bet the amount to bet is important and  and I would hate to see Tikay investing more than £20 on a bet that like mine is more than likely going to be a loser. Is the bet value? Well on that " I haven't got a scooby!"

Kelly Stake. You need to be able to (roughly) define your edge under Kelly, but if you can't do that, well, you're probably not going to win anyway.

Horseplayer has a thread on here tipping up horses, I think his figs at the moment are losing, but he is putting up win bets on big priced horses that a lot of the time get shorter. Given he is going to back so few winners at those prices it needs a lot of bets to work thru to get a complete picture because 15 losers can be turned around in 1-2 bets.

If you are betting football teams then 191 is still a small sample but 500 just gives you more information and so on 1000. If you are winning after 191 bets tho, you are deffo doing good things. What might help too is if you split those bets into all different types. You will then see clearly where you are doing well and where you are doing so so. I had a light bulb moment years ago when I mined my own data and saw how completely clueless I was at cricket betting. I think its prob saved me a few quid since then by admitting I was just a bad judge and simply eliminating it.

Thanks guys. My bets are all football singles and the vast majority, 90% plus, are above even money. Part of my philosophy is to try to avoid backing odds on unless I think it's really great value - this might be a mistake BTW. I'm sure I've had a chunk of good fortune as my ROI is 10.06% and from your previous comments it seems this level of ROI is unlikely to continue.

I will take your comments on board and do an analysis of these bets and see where I have been successful or made mistakes.

10% is a fantastic figure Rick. I would keep on doing exactly what you are doing unless you spot an area in your figs that you want to keep an eye on. One other thing that might be interesting is, are there any particular bookmakers you are winning or losing with. I ask that because the two firms I can get a fullish  bet on with are the two firms I wouldn't want to be betting with really, one is a losing account, the other is a small winner. They are very competitive on football, If they are top price something then I ask myself why, so it might help give a few clues when you are mulling over a bet.

[Sighmuns]

I know there are a few people here who usually say don't trade your bets. I'm aware there is more of an aversion to 'greening out'... I think the phrase used was, "It's like pissing value up the wall"... but tonight's match for me is a prime example of when to switch your bet around.

If you thought there was value in Wigan's price, presumably you were imagining a fairly tight game, similar to the Utd game last week, with Wigan winning by a narrow margin. With the score being 0-2 after 8 mins, Arsenal have 82 mins to throw everything at Wigan, and from similar situations in the past we can predict that if allowed to all-out-attack, Arsenal are very likely to come back into the game. I personally could never see a situation in which the game finished 0-3 or 0-4 from that position.

For me the pre-match backers of Wigan should have been swinging their position round straight after the 2nd goal went in and piling it all on Arsenal. Thoughts?

[RickBFA]

I have a question for Bobby1 or anyone with the knowledge.

Earlier in this thread you mentioned needing a larger sample of bets to cut out the effects of variance and to establish whether a strategy was really profitable.

Is there a timescale/number of bets where you can safely think variance can be discounted as a factor?

As an example, my spreadsheet since logging bets and betting on single football matches in a disciplined fashion has 191 entries. Would 500 bets or a 1000 bets give you a clear picture of real success or failure??

It depends on the odds and what you're doing. If you're betting short odds stuff, your winrate will converge in less bets, obv if you're betting 33/1+ shots all the time you're gonna need a massive sample. You can get a good idea of your true winrate if you're betting Asians/Totals by looking at closing price, but for others you're looking purely at your results. If you're betting the match odds, you could probably compare to Betfair close as well and get a good idea where you stand. If you're ahead of the moves on average, %-wise, you're probably good, if you're losing 1-2% each time, you're in for losing probably.

However, like my draw bet the amount to bet is important and  and I would hate to see Tikay investing more than £20 on a bet that like mine is more than likely going to be a loser. Is the bet value? Well on that " I haven't got a scooby!"

Kelly Stake. You need to be able to (roughly) define your edge under Kelly, but if you can't do that, well, you're probably not going to win anyway.

Horseplayer has a thread on here tipping up horses, I think his figs at the moment are losing, but he is putting up win bets on big priced horses that a lot of the time get shorter. Given he is going to back so few winners at those prices it needs a lot of bets to work thru to get a complete picture because 15 losers can be turned around in 1-2 bets.

If you are betting football teams then 191 is still a small sample but 500 just gives you more information and so on 1000. If you are winning after 191 bets tho, you are deffo doing good things. What might help too is if you split those bets into all different types. You will then see clearly where you are doing well and where you are doing so so. I had a light bulb moment years ago when I mined my own data and saw how completely clueless I was at cricket betting. I think its prob saved me a few quid since then by admitting I was just a bad judge and simply eliminating it.

Thanks guys. My bets are all football singles and the vast majority, 90% plus, are above even money. Part of my philosophy is to try to avoid backing odds on unless I think it's really great value - this might be a mistake BTW. I'm sure I've had a chunk of good fortune as my ROI is 10.06% and from your previous comments it seems this level of ROI is unlikely to continue.

I will take your comments on board and do an analysis of these bets and see where I have been successful or made mistakes.

10% is a fantastic figure Rick. I would keep on doing exactly what you are doing unless you spot an area in your figs that you want to keep an eye on. One other thing that might be interesting is, are there any particular bookmakers you are winning or losing with. I ask that because the two firms I can get a fullish  bet on with are the two firms I wouldn't want to be betting with really, one is a losing account, the other is a small winner. They are very competitive on football, If they are top price something then I ask myself why, so it might help give a few clues when you are mulling over a bet.

I never thought of that! Now you have said it though I find I have a mare with BetVictor, my biggest losing account, even though they are often the best price in the market! I'll bear that in mind, thanks.

[outragous76]

Piers Morgan‏@piersmorganReply
Retweet


 
Don't want to worry Wigan fans, but #Arsenal have won every single home Monday night League game this Millennium. Fact.

[bobby1]

they are one of the two firms I can get on with Rick but would rather use them as a guide these days than to take on. They have taken a stance on footy over the last 6 months or so and are very competitive.

[tikay]

they are one of the two firms I can get on with but would rather use them as a guide these days than to take on.

I suspect there is some reading between the lines needed there, guess I'd better not ask for a translation......

I do find BetVictor very often offer "best price" on Football though.

[bobby1]

they are one of the two firms I can get on with but would rather use them as a guide these days than to take on.

I suspect there is some reading between the lines needed there, guess I'd better not ask for a translation......

I do find BetVictor very often offer "best price" on Football though.

Sorry, I mean a fullish bet on with

yes, they bet the games very aggressively these days, often to 4 or 5%. They are taking the Asian book route to taking the turnover and happy to make X amount I guess. The big advantage of that line is most footy punters want to bet acca's, so being competitive brings in the stakes, and most of the time the customers acca em up making it harder to win even at the small % they bet the games to.

[TheDazzler]

Lol, just got in from work to see the current score. TBF Dubai was right in that my analysis was a bit of 'clutching for straws'. It was too wordy and didn't really catch what I was trying to say.
I was thinking about it all day in work and really what I wanted to say was that I thought were maaaaaybe overvalued but that Wigan were really undervalued and that their recent form, although decent is actually better than it looks. Basically I thought their current form or ability was akin to a team like Everton or Newcastle. And Arsenal vs Newcastle was probably priced something like Arse 1/2, 11/4 draw, 9/2 Newcastle. I'm just pulling those numbers out of my ass and they mightn't be a correct book/add up right. Well I've just done my saver on Arsenal to win now but................HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD.

[Sighmuns]

Top call Dazzler, well played Wigan, fully deserved.

[Graham C]

Top call Dazzler, well played Wigan, fully deserved.

[bobby1]

Well done Dazzler, class call.

[pleno1]

VAN PERSIE is such a mug.

[WarBwastard]

Well swerved Tikay.  That's where Banzai betting gets you. Amazing result really.  You'd think the Arse, Sperz and Chelsea were trying to avoid playing in the Champions League next season.