Tips for Tikay

[Teacake]

Regards Bingham v Hendry, I read in the Paper today that O'Sullivan was slating him for travelling back from China so late for the Worlds and he reckons it will effect his game as he will be Jet Lagged for at least 3 Days.
Not upto date on the form from the Snooker, is this factored into the Price?

From what I remember, the jetlag from coming back from the East is nowhere near as bad as coming from the West.

Bobby,  i read a quote from Bingham saying he didn't do much wrong from 12-9 up.
Funny enough I was talking about that tonight re the Jet Lag, I had it worse coming back from the West than East.
O'Sullivan says "It takes three days to feel right after a long haul flight like that.He won't be at his best, won't feel great and will suffer from Jet Lag."

It takes longer to adjust coming from the west as your body can handle longer days better than short days. He's obviously travelled a hell of a lot in his career and will flying be first class but I wouldn't fancy going into a game like that after that long a flight and the time difference but it probably tells you more about his priorities  than anything else.

[TheDazzler]

Im half tempted to back QPR 2morrow Keith, how do you see it?

Think it's an exceptionally difficult game to call.

The matchups definitely favour Spurs.. Bale v Taiwo in particular. VdV v Derry could get ugly too.

But Spurs have been awful these last few weeks, a shadow of the team that ripped us apart earlier in the season.

I tentatively made Spurs evens, and that's the price. So definitely no bet for me.

Cisse is back and will be pumped up in the extreme to impress, and Spurs centre backs have been woeful.. maybe some mileage in the over?

cheers, I'm going to keep an eye on the line ups and see how it looks then.

QPR have won their last 3 home games, 3-0 vs Swansea, 2-1 vs Arsenal and 3-2 vs Pool.
Spurs have not won any of their last 8 away matches and have won just 2 of their last 11 Prem home and away. They have not even scored in their last 3 away matches. They are waiting on the fitness of 'four or five players'. Their form is mirroring last seasons when they won just 3 of their last 12.
I would certainly say there is value in opposing Spurs and I really can't think they are valid even money shots. Whether that means backing QPR outright or laying Spurs, or a combination of the two, is open to debate. If you split your bet equally between the 2, you get your money back with a draw and obviously profit with the QPR win. 
I know Tikay has effectively laid Spurs in this thread by backing QPR +0.5 so this post is really directed to Bobby1.

[ACE2M]

I think we should switch the position on the bingham hendry bet.

[tikay]

In our Aussie Rules game, at the end of the second quarter ( I will hazard a guess that there are 4 quarters in all), the score is...

Collingwod Magpies 8.8 (56) Port Adelaide 5.7 (37)

If only we knew what that means, but at a guess, Port Adelaide are 19 points in arrears. We have them with a 41.5 handicap.

So that probably means it's close. Probably.

[tikay]

Going into the fourth, and so probably final, quarter, Collingwood have increased their lead, it is now 13.11 (89) - 8.8 (56).

We may struggle to hang on here.

[henrik777]

Going into the fourth, and so probably final, quarter, Collingwood have increased their lead, it is now 13.11 (89) - 8.8 (56).

We may struggle to hang on here.

97-73

Winner.

Sandy

[tikay]

Going into the fourth, and so probably final, quarter, Collingwood have increased their lead, it is now 13.11 (89) - 8.8 (56).

We may struggle to hang on here.

97-73

Winner.

Sandy

Great news Sandy, thank you!

I can now include that in yesterday's summary.

[Teacake]

In our Aussie Rules game, at the end of the second quarter ( I will hazard a guess that there are 4 quarters in all), the score is...

Collingwod Magpies 8.8 (56) Port Adelaide 5.7 (37)

If only we knew what that means, but at a guess, Port Adelaide are 19 points in arrears. We have them with a 41.5 handicap.

So that probably means it's close. Probably.

The scoring system is 6 for a goal (a scoring shot between the middle 2 posts) and 1 for a behind (a scoring shot that goes between one of the 2 middle posts and either of the smaller behind posts).



Chalk up another win for Bobby, Collingwood win by 24.

[tikay]

In our Aussie Rules game, at the end of the second quarter ( I will hazard a guess that there are 4 quarters in all), the score is...

Collingwod Magpies 8.8 (56) Port Adelaide 5.7 (37)

If only we knew what that means, but at a guess, Port Adelaide are 19 points in arrears. We have them with a 41.5 handicap.

So that probably means it's close. Probably.

The scoring system is 6 for a goal (a scoring shot between the middle 2 posts) and 1 for a behind (a scoring shot that goes between one of the 2 middle posts and either of the smaller behind posts).



Chalk up another win for Bobby, Collingwood win by 24.

Thanks for the explanation, which may help if we do more of this Aussie Rules stuff. Good to wake up to a winner!

[The Camel]

In our Aussie Rules game, at the end of the second quarter ( I will hazard a guess that there are 4 quarters in all), the score is...

Collingwod Magpies 8.8 (56) Port Adelaide 5.7 (37)

If only we knew what that means, but at a guess, Port Adelaide are 19 points in arrears. We have them with a 41.5 handicap.

So that probably means it's close. Probably.

The scoring system is 6 for a goal (a scoring shot between the middle 2 posts) and 1 for a behind (a scoring shot that goes between one of the 2 middle posts and either of the smaller behind posts).



Chalk up another win for Bobby, Collingwood win by 24.

Thanks for the explanation, which may help if we do more of this Aussie Rules stuff. Good to wake up to a winner!

Must try harder.

If you were a proper degen you would have stayed up all night watching the updates online.

[tikay]

Daily Update, 8am Saturday 21st April.

April invested - £2,795

April return - £2,376

Loss - £419

Forward invested (included in the £2,795) - £975.

April Profit EXCLUDING forward investments - +£556.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=5

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 8am Saturday 21st April.

We head into the weekend in reasonable shape. Settled bets in April show a profit of £556, though allowing for £975 of unsettled, which we include, we are technically £419 adrift @ this point. Every unsettled bet that wins is a freeroll really, as they come off the unsettled column @ cost, & go into the returned column with the stake AND return.

Yesterday we made a nice little profit. Teacake & bobby gave us a winner apiece, both in Ausssie Rules, well done lads, & a speculative punt by hector on RL failed to convert, but we only had £35 on that.  Bobby's bet yielded a £75 profit on a £90 bet, & teacake's gave us £42.50 profit on a £50 bet. So, just over £80 profit on the day, excluding new stuff, how nice would it be to do that every day?

Barnet got thumped, which was perfect, as it dented their already inferior goal difference a little more. They remain 3 points ahead of both Macclesfield & Hererford, each of which play today. A win by either, or even both, would make Barnet favourites to be relegated, if they both lose, it's "as you were", though we are running out of games.

The weather seriously damaged our cricket bets yesterday, which are now all in intensive care, but more on that to follow. We may have to brace ourselves for a £200 loss there, but it's all pre-accounted for, so not too bad.

The only other new action yesterday, done for reasons of pure spite, was a tenner bet by MANTIS on some TV programme. Last night, I was shown a video of the singer chap we bet on. MANTIS is clearly from a different planet to us normal people is all I can say. Here is what we have wagered our cash on - some weird dude with a hoodie singing a funky (?) version of Madonna's "Like a Virgin".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhoLkqlpmoI

I'm truly lost for words.     

[tikay]

The cricket bets.

The weather intervened in a most spiteful way, geographically our bets are spread right across the UK, but every single game has had bad weather on both days, the odds on which must be pretty high.

The 1st innings yet to conclude in ANY of our 4 matches, as follows......

Warwickshire 68-5 in reply to Lancashire's 250.

Middlesex 132-5, Durham yet to bat.

Somerset 78-1 in reply to Notts 162.

Surrey 123-7, Worcs yet to bat.

Which is about as bad as it is possible to get, or maybe worse.

To get this in context, Betfair now quote these prices for BACKING the Draw.

Lancs v Warwickshire - 1.43

Middx - Durham - 1.15

Notts v Somerset - 1.27

Surrey v Worcs - 1.25

We will need Tighty to give us his view, but if I understand him correctly, "contrived" results are entirely feasible, & legal. It would appear to be our only hope, & I think those Betfair prices suggest quite clearly that a contrived is entirely possible, because there would be no chance whatsoever of ANY result bar a draw unless it is contrived.

Even if we do have a clean sweep of failures here, I hope Tighty puts up another batch of County Cricket matches next week, then we can ask the Elders to come up with a punting strategy, such as that one suggested by redarmi yesterday.

Been a very interesting bet, this, & whatever happens, Tighty's spot was a terrific one.

[sovietsong]

Blame it on the weatherman

[tikay]

What's coming up?

Today, we have plenty of action, all of which is paid for, so any or every winner goes straight into the profit column.

Cricket - they all continue today, as above. Our range is between a max £200 loss, & £100 profit.

Football.

Fulham to beat Wigan, £100 @ 1.98. (Camel).

Werder Bremen to beat Bayern Munich, £100 @ 16/5. (bobby)

QPR (+0.5) v Spurs, £100 @ 1.96 (Ant)

Boxing

Crolla, £50 @ 4/5 (bazza). I'm not quite sure how this bet works, my notes say "rounds 1-12".

Snooker

Stuart Bingham v Stephen Hendry, £100 @ 10/11. (bobby). Note this MIGHT get switched.

The other snooker single (Selby-Hawkins) is not today, & we also have a "frames" bet over the entire Championships.

FI

Rosberg to secure Pole Position, £40 @ 9/2, (redarmi)

That ought to be enough to be going on with!

I'll be offline from mid-morning, until early afternoon, & @ DTD from around 1pm, playing the £100 Tourney. Can't spend ALL my time gambling, after all. Should be back home in time to watch the boxing tonight though.

Have a good day, whatever you do.