Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

A Formula 1 bet where we can root for the whole paddock! Paddy Power 5/6 20 or more finishers in the Spanish Grand Prix.

A first corner pile up seems unlikely given the run off area on the outside of the 1st corner. Reliability of the cars appears to be good although some teams will have new parts on this Grand Prix they shouldnt result in mechanical failure.

The average for the first four races = 20.75 which includes the first race where only 16 finished.
The average for the last 23 races = 19.95 and this includes any wet races where collisions/spins odds are increased.
The average for the last 6 spanish races though is 16.33! This obviously includes the days where cars were not as reliable.Anyone else have any views?

We have had a bad time with F1 so far, (not a penny in return, it is our "worst" sport), so I'm a little worried about this.

The average for the last 6 Spanish GP's worries me too. Were the cars really that less reliable then?

[Karabiner]

I couldn't resist taking a few quid back on Poults @ 8.2 on BF.

He's still a good winner for me but there's a long way to go.

Don't blame you one bit, Ralph, I agree, it'd be a miracle if he could negotiate the remaining three days without a few mishaps.

Given my thread bets, what would you do if you had my position on Poulter? (Amounts, etc). It'd be rude to ask how much you have saved for, but I'd like a clue to your thought process. You know, nit to nit, like.

I have £120 invested in the win market Tony, £20 of which is on Poults @ 90, so overall he wins me £1690 if he takes it down before any business is done.

I have just layed £100 @ 8.2 so he now wins me £980 but I have virtual freerolls on my other players who are in with a shot such as Crane (£1600) and Ovilvy (£3500).

It's very hard to judge the exact price/moment to lay golf bets off but around £25 @ a similar price to me would seem sensible to me for your outlay. Bear in mind that the 11th which is Poults' second hole today is a "pickup" par-5 and if he birdies that or looks like doing so an ideal opportunity might present itself.

[tikay]

I couldn't resist taking a few quid back on Poults @ 8.2 on BF.

He's still a good winner for me but there's a long way to go.

Don't blame you one bit, Ralph, I agree, it'd be a miracle if he could negotiate the remaining three days without a few mishaps.

Given my thread bets, what would you do if you had my position on Poulter? (Amounts, etc). It'd be rude to ask how much you have saved for, but I'd like a clue to your thought process. You know, nit to nit, like.

I have £120 invested in the win market Tony, £20 of which is on Poults @ 90, so overall he wins me £1690 if he takes it down before any business is done.

I have just layed £100 @ 8.2 so he now wins me £980 but I have virtual freerolls on my other players who are in with a shot such as Crane (£1600) and Ovilvy (£3500).

It's very hard to judge the exact price/moment to lay golf bets off but around £25 @ a similar price to me would seem sensible to me for your outlay. Bear in mind that the 11th which is Poults' second hole today is a "pickup" par-5 and if he birdies that or looks like doing so an ideal opportunity might present itself.

Timing is all........(I assume you are watching!).

Well done you.

[The Camel]

Tony

If you can get on the 5/6 draw no bet for Stevenage to win   tonight at Ladbrokes get the max bet on (not sure what your limits are) £180 to win £150  or £120 to win £100

Need to get on asap though as the price will go.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/stevenage-v-sheffield-utd/draw-no-bet

The price is still there at the time of this post.

Thanks Fraser.

As a complete know-nothing on football, ther price looks very skinny to me - what is your reasoning for fancying it so strongly, please?

Ther 5/6 has gone, by the way, but 4/5 is still available in several spots.

If - IF - we did this, it would not be a maximum (unless your reasoning is very strong), we VERY rarely do the Max, probably less than 10 "max" bets since February 1st, when we began.

I'm also being a tinsy bit cautious with our money right now, as we are the fat end of £500 adrift this month, & I'm keen to wipe that out. It'd be an easy "yes" if we were £500 ahead. 

Anyway, you should save your run-good for Sunday.......

Come back to me, please, I'm keen to hear your reasoning, & find an excuse to have a bet.

I have to dust off my so far unused veto card (I gave myself this when I started the thread, but forgot to tell you) as regards to this bet.

I have just backed Sheffield United draw no bet at 5/4.

[tikay]

VETO IN PLACE

[Karabiner]

Tony

If you can get on the 5/6 draw no bet for Stevenage to win   tonight at Ladbrokes get the max bet on (not sure what your limits are) £180 to win £150  or £120 to win £100

Need to get on asap though as the price will go.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/stevenage-v-sheffield-utd/draw-no-bet

The price is still there at the time of this post.

Thanks Fraser.

As a complete know-nothing on football, ther price looks very skinny to me - what is your reasoning for fancying it so strongly, please?

Ther 5/6 has gone, by the way, but 4/5 is still available in several spots.

If - IF - we did this, it would not be a maximum (unless your reasoning is very strong), we VERY rarely do the Max, probably less than 10 "max" bets since February 1st, when we began.

I'm also being a tinsy bit cautious with our money right now, as we are the fat end of £500 adrift this month, & I'm keen to wipe that out. It'd be an easy "yes" if we were £500 ahead. 

Anyway, you should save your run-good for Sunday.......

Come back to me, please, I'm keen to hear your reasoning, & find an excuse to have a bet.

I have to dust off my so far unused veto card (I gave myself this when I started the thread, but forgot to tell you) as regards to this bet.

I'm afraid that I have to brush off my "disagree with the camel" card as a veteran golf bettor.

Tony has £30 on Poults @ c80/1 after several misclicks and stands to win c£2400 should he scoop.

A £25 lay in single figures would give him a c£2200 freeroll which is a fantastic position to hold IMHO.

[redarmi]

Wasn't the veto on the Sheff Utd bet?

[The Camel]

Wasn't the veto on the Sheff Utd bet?

Don't worry about Karabiner. It's way past his bedtime.

[tikay]

Wasn't the veto on the Sheff Utd bet?

Correct, but Ralph saw an opening to make his point. He's not daft......

[Karabiner]

You lot can fuck off, I haven't recovered from playing golf at Moor Allerton in a monsoon yesterday.

[tikay]

You lot can fuck off, I haven't recovered from playing golf at Moor Allerton in a monsoon yesterday.

Ouch.

Not sure such language will be tolerated in the Members Stand next Thursday, especially from one attired in jacket & tie, & as such refraining from riding the omnibus with the common folk.

[tikay]

Now Poulter is in the water.

Who suggested laying him?

[ACE2M]

Long way to go. Just pretend he started today at even par. You'd be well happy right now.

[ACE2M]

And I fully agree with Ralph. You can only really hope for 2 or 3 big results a year when punting golf, any opportunity to take some out and still be in a big result position is a winner IMO.

[tikay]

Long way to go. Just pretend he started today at even par. You'd be well happy right now.

Yup, if he gets his head back in gear, we still have a chance. No regrets at all.