Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

To be honest my thinking on it was that both prices were probably wrong.  I don't arb much but that looks a great spot to bet both sides to me.

[kpnuts]

Cheers Vince

Have you seen  Spain Possesion bet at 7-2 with Hills that Jose found  ?

You need to see if you can get on as price still there whilst traders sleep

I agree that 7/2 seems generous odds.
However, do we really think that Spain will have twice as much possession as Portugal?
What happens to possession statistics when a team takes the lead? Do they tend to keep possession by passing it around at the back a lot or do the team behind tend to press more and get the ball more often? I really don't know enough about football. My initial feeling after seeing Sandy's stats is to put £20 on this.

It's 5/2 now and an arb with Victor Chandler who are 7/10 under 65.5, imagine 65.2% rolling in!!!!!

Do we know that William Hill and Victor Chandler use the same source for their possession statistics?

Health warning to possible arbers:
WH "Settled according to statistics on UEFA.com"
Don't know about VC, but had a market on this when Jose posted last night and theirs was settled according to OPTA stats, so could be a discrepancy.

[MereNovice]

Cheers Vince

Have you seen  Spain Possesion bet at 7-2 with Hills that Jose found  ?

You need to see if you can get on as price still there whilst traders sleep

I agree that 7/2 seems generous odds.
However, do we really think that Spain will have twice as much possession as Portugal?
What happens to possession statistics when a team takes the lead? Do they tend to keep possession by passing it around at the back a lot or do the team behind tend to press more and get the ball more often? I really don't know enough about football. My initial feeling after seeing Sandy's stats is to put £20 on this.

It's 5/2 now and an arb with Victor Chandler who are 7/10 under 65.5, imagine 65.2% rolling in!!!!!

Do we know that William Hill and Victor Chandler use the same source for their possession statistics?

Health warning to possible arbers:
WH "Settled according to statistics on UEFA.com"
Don't know about VC, but had a market on this when Jose posted last night and theirs was settled according to OPTA stats, so could be a discrepancy.

Thanks.

[rfgqqabc]

Cheers Vince

Have you seen  Spain Possesion bet at 7-2 with Hills that Jose found  ?

You need to see if you can get on as price still there whilst traders sleep

I agree that 7/2 seems generous odds.
However, do we really think that Spain will have twice as much possession as Portugal?
What happens to possession statistics when a team takes the lead? Do they tend to keep possession by passing it around at the back a lot or do the team behind tend to press more and get the ball more often? I really don't know enough about football. My initial feeling after seeing Sandy's stats is to put £20 on this.

It's 5/2 now and an arb with Victor Chandler who are 7/10 under 65.5, imagine 65.2% rolling in!!!!!

Do we know that William Hill and Victor Chandler use the same source for their possession statistics?

Health warning to possible arbers:
WH "Settled according to statistics on UEFA.com"
Don't know about VC, but had a market on this when Jose posted last night and theirs was settled according to OPTA stats, so could be a discrepancy.

VC is OPTA too, glad i didnt get the full what i asked for, but pretty happy with what i got

[hector62]

Golf The Irish Open.

For the first time since 1951 this is to be played at Royal Portrush in NI. So there is no previous course form to follow, but a few years ago a certain R McIlroy shot a then course record 61 when he was 16. This is a links course which is a completely different type of golf from what most of these players will have been playing so far this season.

Of the 3 leaders in the betting, McDowell, Harrington and McIlroy my preference is for McDowell. He is in great form, finishing 2nd in the US Open on a tough course, and this is his home course so he will know exactly where to hit his tee shots- let's just hope it goes where he wants it to. Recommend £20 win 10-1 in lots of places.

For my 2nd selection I have spent the best part of 2 hours trying to find a solid reason not  to put this up- but I have failed. At 25-1 Nicolas Colsaerts is overpriced. Maybe as he is Belgian no one wants to back him, but his form is top class. He has won on the tour this year, he had 3 very good rounds at the US Open, then a bad final round which he blamed on the fog. I had hoped to find that he has no form on links courses so I could avoid him, but last season he played 2 links tournaments finshing 9th in the Alfred Dunhill and 3rd in the Scottish Open with a combined total of 29 under par. Even if I failed to recommend him no doubt Tikay would do his trick of backing him and then assigning it to me. I also like the thought of Tikay in Vegas watching in one of those sports bars shouting " Go get'em 3G" and lots of "in the holes". All the while drinking a latte out of his brown brogue.

Recommend Colsaerts £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Paddy Power who are paying 1-6 places.

[redarmi]

I really like Michael Hoey in the golf this week.  He ticks pretty much all the boxes.  All of his wins have come on links type courses and he is playing the best golf of his career.  He won an amateur tournament around here and is from NI so he will be massively motivated around here.  55/1 just seems too big e/w to me.

[MereNovice]

I really like Michael Hoey in the golf this week.  He ticks pretty much all the boxes.  All of his wins have come on links type courses and he is playing the best golf of his career.  He won an amateur tournament around here and is from NI so he will be massively motivated around here.  55/1 just seems too big e/w to me.

I've never even heard of Michael Hoey so I think that excludes me from commenting.
Can anyone help me?

[MereNovice]

Golf The Irish Open.

For the first time since 1951 this is to be played at Royal Portrush in NI. So there is no previous course form to follow, but a few years ago a certain R McIlroy shot a then course record 61 when he was 16. This is a links course which is a completely different type of golf from what most of these players will have been playing so far this season.

Of the 3 leaders in the betting, McDowell, Harrington and McIlroy my preference is for McDowell. He is in great form, finishing 2nd in the US Open on a tough course, and this is his home course so he will know exactly where to hit his tee shots- let's just hope it goes where he wants it to. Recommend £20 win 10-1 in lots of places.

For my 2nd selection I have spent the best part of 2 hours trying to find a solid reason not  to put this up- but I have failed. At 25-1 Nicolas Colsaerts is overpriced. Maybe as he is Belgian no one wants to back him, but his form is top class. He has won on the tour this year, he had 3 very good rounds at the US Open, then a bad final round which he blamed on the fog. I had hoped to find that he has no form on links courses so I could avoid him, but last season he played 2 links tournaments finshing 9th in the Alfred Dunhill and 3rd in the Scottish Open with a combined total of 29 under par. Even if I failed to recommend him no doubt Tikay would do his trick of backing him and then assigning it to me. I also like the thought of Tikay in Vegas watching in one of those sports bars shouting " Go get'em 3G" and lots of "in the holes". All the while drinking a latte out of his brown brogue.

Recommend Colsaerts £10 e/w @ 25-1 with Paddy Power who are paying 1-6 places.

3G was a given.
McDowell sounds good to me too but that means nothing really.
Comments please.

[hector62]

Michael Hoey is a good links player- he won last years Alfred Dunhill which is played on 3 different links courses.

[TightEnd]

out of interest, why is there not more tennis action being thrown out?

no value in any Wimbledon singles matches? outright markets?

[MereNovice]

out of interest, why is there not more tennis action being thrown out?

no value in any Wimbledon singles matches? outright markets?

I can't comment on the blokes but haven't seen any odds that looked great for the women's matches so far.
There have been a few that I backed with my own money but I wouldn't risk Fred's.

Ana Ivanovic won her first round match this morning in three sets and is now 100/1 from 150/1.
Sabine Lisicki won her second round match this morning in three sets and is now 66/1 from 200/1.

Neither of them looked world beaters but if you got on them you've got value.

[TightEnd]

in the mens it looks all so predictable. gone are the days of lots of seeds falling in rounds 1 and 2?

why would this be? Slower grass courts these days play more like hard courts so the matches run more to "form" than the fast grass used to?

[MereNovice]

in the mens it looks all so predictable. gone are the days of lots of seeds falling in rounds 1 and 2?

why would this be? Slower grass courts these days play more like hard courts so the matches run more to "form" than the fast grass used to?

Ooooh, that's a good debating point.
I'm going to have to think about that.

[MereNovice]

Increasing the number of seeds from 16 to 32 has meant less big clashes early in the draw.
I think that is the main reason quoted but I'm sure there must be other factors.

[redarmi]

out of interest, why is there not more tennis action being thrown out?

no value in any Wimbledon singles matches? outright markets?

Mr Horner of Leeds must be getting it on his own this year?