Tips for Tikay

[Graham C]

Ignore my idiot post.

[MereNovice]

Furyk looks a good price to my untrained eye

Was rather struck by the sentiments towards Fowler on the golf betting thread too


Have you seen the rough at Lytham? It's going to rule out many players who aren't consistently straight





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/theopen/9404328/The-Open-2012-Stop-whingeing-about-Royal-Lytham-rough-and-get-on-with-it-says-former-winner-Tony-Jacklin.html

It's not just Lytham that has penal rough this year.

After all of this rain my local course Wollaton Park's rough is as deep and thick as I've ever seen it in thirty years, on the odd occasion that I get to play in those brief lulls between monsoons.

Ralph,

I see you have gone for Fowler, & I assume the course & need for driving accuracy will suit him.

What do you think of Furyk for this week?  Ditto Tiger, who has, I gather, been practising hard, & who won't be using his driver much if The Times interview with him is correct.

Finallly.....IF you wanted to find a low variance way of backing those three, what would you suggest?

I think I'm the wrong person to be asking about low-variance betting strategies on golf Tony, I'm doing my absolute conkers this year. Everyone that I bet recently seems to win the following week.

Now if you want a couple of banzai grenades I'm your man.

In seriousness I do fancy Rickie Fowler this week and recommend £20ew with PP @ 40/1 (seven places).

Banzai to follow...

On.

Karabiner   PaddyPower   Golf   The Open   Fowler - e/w   40/1   £40

Single: Fowler, Rickie @ 40/1
2 lines at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £40.00
Potential returns: £1,040.00

[MereNovice]

One for the Open..

Will be backing a few, but the one I think is best value is  Jim Furyk @ 50/1 EW with PP (7 places)

Was out of form for alot of last year, but come right back to it this year looking like his old consistent self albeit so far without a win - He has had 3 top 5's on the PGA tour with 4 further efforts in the top 11.  2 of those results were in the first 2 Majors of the year Masters (11) and US Open (4) so he's back to competing in the biggest events.  He missed the cut when they last played at Lytham, but he has had 4 top 5 finishes in The Open down the years and a couple of other top 10's.  He's also placed at pebble a couple of times in the AT+T event so he has some form on Links courses.

This week the rough is reported to be as "brutal" and keeping the ball in play is going to be key, Furyk sits 6th in driving accuracy on the PGA tour which is going to stand him in good stead.  Addtionally he sits 7th for sand save percentage, and 4th for overall scrambling - obviously key skills for an Open.

Obviously he made a mess of the his US Open chances when he probably should of won, but there has been several cases of players recently 'bouncing back' from making a mess a things in previous weeks and given he is so experienced, and been a prolofic winner (inc a Major already) I'm not worried about it, and could even make that more determined.  He played incrediibly well in the US Open for the majority which is what I'm choosing to concentrate on

Weather forecasts are not really my thing, but he's out very late on Thursday - with it getting drier as the week goes on, he may end up being drawn well if there is still some rain about on Thursday morning.

Unless, he really has got a sulk on since in the US Open I think we going to get a good run for our money, and the enhanced place terms make it a juicy EW bet IMO. Compared to some of the players priced similarly i think he represents good value.

No idea what you're current bank is but would suggest something like 20ew @ 50/1 with PP.

On.

I decided to go for £10 e/w as we may be placing a number of bets on this event.

T_Mar   PaddyPower   Golf   The Open   Furyk - e/w   50/1   £20

Single: Furyk, Jim @ 50/1
2 lines at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential returns: £645.00

[Chompy]

The Sara Big Brother express is gaining a bit of momentum and she's down to around 6/1 in a place.

Still got no idea who's going to TID so wouldn't put you off trading out at around that price.

[MereNovice]

The Sara Big Brother express is gaining a bit of momentum and she's down to around 6/1 in a place.

Still got no idea who's going to TID so wouldn't put you off trading out at around that price.

8.8 to lay currently on Betfair but only a small amount available.
I have placed a £50 lay at 7 for now.

[MereNovice]

The current forecast for The Oval is rather wet for Thursday and Friday.
The draw is currently 5/4.
Thoughts?

http://www.myweather2.com/Cricket/United-Kingdom/The-Oval.aspx?sday=2

[MereNovice]

Last race at Worcester - Moulin De La Croix

May be subject to a rule 4 or two

(Seriously, don't bet on it if you can find a market)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/18876623

[JaffaCake]

Brazil's basketball team played the USA in a warm-up last night and came out with a lot of credit. They were 10 up after the first quarter, 27-17, and while they eventually gave way, they hung round and only lost by about 10. As well as their 4 NBA players they have a point guard from Barcelona who is top class, I really like the top three bet we had. We'll be dining on value as usual either way, they're as short as 15/4 with bet365 now, we got on at 13/2

[GreekStein]

UFC 151 is on 2nd September so still a while away yet.

The main event is Jon Jones vs Dan Henderson.

Jones is 25 and at a real physical peak. He's unbeaten in the UFC with 10 wins and no losses. His only career 'loss' came as a result of a disqualification because of illegal elbow strikes. He's ranked the number 2 pound for pound fighter  in the world. I've watched almost all of his fights and never seen him even coming close to being beaten. He's almost unfightable. In 3 of his last 4 fights he's beaten the top 3 contenders in the division. He anihilated two of them.

Dan Henderson is an experienced veteran and excellent fighter but he's 41 years old. A very tough guy who's never been knocked out but does have 8 losses on his resume (it is an impressive resume tbf). He's slower than Jones by far and has been beaten by a few guys that Jones has taken apart.

I only checked on William Hill and Jones was 1.17. I feel that Jones is constantly underpriced given how fking amazing he is and would say he loses this fight less than one in ten times which imo makes this a good bet.

I know it's short which might mean you guys aren't keen to bet this but if there are any special markets then given Henderson has never been knocked out it really might be worth betting on him to lose by KO or something as Jones has a unique knockout power and unorthodox style and ridiculous speed that Hendo hasn't fought against before. If anyone knows where I could see any extra markets on this fight, I'd appreciate a link.

[MereNovice]

Daily Summary, as @ 07:00, Wednesday July 18th

LOSS on Month = £7.50

Unsettled Bets = £337.50

The unsettled bets will be carried forward into August's accounts.


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=9

[MereNovice]

Daily Report, as @ 07:00, Wednesday July 18th

Fred placed two each-way bets on two straight shooters for The Open yesterday.

Apart from that it was a very quiet day.

[MereNovice]

What's coming up?


The Tour De France resumes after a rest day.

Today's televised domestic one day cricket features Essex v Middlesex. There's also an extensive list of county championship cricket.
The first test between England and South Africa starts tomorrow.

The Open also starts tomorrow.

The World Matchplay Darts starts on Saturday.


It's 9 days until the start of the Olympics.

[MereNovice]

Cricket.
England v West Indies
Hashim Amla series runs.
Bodog have > 205.5 @ 5/6

Bet365 have set the line at 232.
SpreadEx are offering 215-230.
SpIn are offering 225-240.

In the two warm-up matches Amla scored 64 and 77 (ret) although not against the strongest of attacks.

In his last series against England he scored 311 @ 44.43 in a 4 test series.
In his last series in England he scored 275 @ 45.83 in a 4 test series.

Comments?

[TightEnd]

I like the Amla bet, in fact you beat me to the punch as I was going to suggest him as top SA batsman, now that ABV has the wicketkeeping position

Watertight technique and temperament

Great record, and a strike rate of only 50. The guy is like Trott, just bats and bats

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/averages/batting.html?class=1;current=2;id=3;type=team



The SA top six

Smith
Petersen
Amla
Kallis
ABdeV
Rudolph

Of those Petersen, Rudolph are not top class
Smith and Kallis are
AB is but now has a dual role

then I saw Amla was priced up as favourite in the top SA batsman market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-tests/england-south-africa-tests/top-south-africa-batsman

which indicated there wasn't much left on the table for the punter


So basically he's going to get 6 innings (longer term weather forecasts suggest a better second half of the summer, which would help), and has to average under 35 across the series for your Bodog bet to be anywhere close to bad

by the way, I didn't like the draw bet. Think the series will have 3 results, personally

[MereNovice]

Other bets worthy of consideration?

South Africa opening partnership:
< 31.5 @ 5/6 with SkyBet

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-tests/england-v-south-africa-[1st-test]/south-africa-opening-partnership

Highest opening partnership:
England @ 5/6 with Bodog

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/england-v-south-africa/england-v-south-africa-tests/england-v-south-africa-[1st-test]/highest-opening-partnership