Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

I promised you a banzai or two for The Open so here is my first offering.

John Daly to be the first round leader @ 200/1 with youwin(who only let me have £2.05 on having opened an account especially, tossers!) but there's a good chance of getting matched on BF.

Daly has been playing really well of late, is a proven links player and has a nice early start.

I suggest £5 win.

[TightEnd]

The Olympics

GB finished 4th in the medal table behind Russia at Beijing

https://p.twimg.com/Ax09X8yCAAA8ImI.jpg

They are priced at comfortably odds on to be 4th or below this time round

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/specials/olympic-specials/great-britain/medal-table-finishing-position

To finish in the top 3, and flip flop Russia, we can get 2-1 with Bet365

Why might this be value?

a) the head of Russia's Olympic committee said on Tuesday Britain posed a threat to third place, which Russia secured in both Athens and Sydney, despite Team GB's stated aim being fourth.

"When the British talk about fourth place, they are being modest," said Alexander Zhukov.

b) Team GB will win 27 gold medals at the Olympic Games, by far its largest haul in a century, according to a study released to the BBC.

That tally would be likely to earn Great Britain third place in the London 2012 medal table, above Russia.

The Sheffield Hallam University study bases the projection on the team's past performance and adjusts for Britain's home advantage at London 2012.

The 27-gold figure is substantially higher than many other forecasts.


Where might be the surprise? the Professor who did the study explains

"Shibli believes forecasts based on recent results do not take into account the effect of home advantage and, therefore, underestimates Britain's potential this summer.

"There is this separate benefit of being the host nation. We are able to contest more sports, more disciplines, more events and more medals than we would previously," he said.

"Now that doesn't guarantee medal-winning success - the host nation also ends up with the most last places. But Britain's pre-qualified athletes have not had to play their hand yet in the way others have, and they have an element of surprise."

ie our competitors haven't had to qualify in, our guys get in automatically, therefore their form is less exposed to odds-setters and creates the potential for a surprise....furthermore we have more athletes competing than in other Olympics, as host

At 2-1 we are being the offered the opportunity to have a punt on these trends here, and in effect buying UK/Selling Russia




The alternative market of total medals has a pivot point of 62.5 medals under/over. We had 47 in 08, and forecasts for 12 are 56,57,59,60 from four seperate forecasters

"Sheffield Hallam's Simon Shibli says he is 'comfortable' with the gold-medal projection but believes Britain may win more than 56 medals in total. He said: "Just from me looking at it, 56 in total is a bit on the shy side."

2-1 on top three is more attractive than 8-11 the under/over 62.5 in my opinion

[redarmi]

There is another study that suggests Britain will get more golds than the 25 goal and that they will come third.  Seemed a fair bet to me when I looked at it yesterday.

[MereNovice]

The Olympics

GB finished 4th in the medal table behind Russia at Beijing

https://p.twimg.com/Ax09X8yCAAA8ImI.jpg

They are priced at comfortably odds on to be 4th or below this time round

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/specials/olympic-specials/great-britain/medal-table-finishing-position

To finish in the top 3, and flip flop Russia, we can get 2-1 with Bet365

Why might this be value?

a) the head of Russia's Olympic committee said on Tuesday Britain posed a threat to third place, which Russia secured in both Athens and Sydney, despite Team GB's stated aim being fourth.

"When the British talk about fourth place, they are being modest," said Alexander Zhukov.

b) Team GB will win 27 gold medals at the Olympic Games, by far its largest haul in a century, according to a study released to the BBC.

That tally would be likely to earn Great Britain third place in the London 2012 medal table, above Russia.

The Sheffield Hallam University study bases the projection on the team's past performance and adjusts for Britain's home advantage at London 2012.

The 27-gold figure is substantially higher than many other forecasts.


Where might be the surprise? the Professor who did the study explains

"Shibli believes forecasts based on recent results do not take into account the effect of home advantage and, therefore, underestimates Britain's potential this summer.

"There is this separate benefit of being the host nation. We are able to contest more sports, more disciplines, more events and more medals than we would previously," he said.

"Now that doesn't guarantee medal-winning success - the host nation also ends up with the most last places. But Britain's pre-qualified athletes have not had to play their hand yet in the way others have, and they have an element of surprise."

ie our competitors haven't had to qualify in, our guys get in automatically, therefore their form is less exposed to odds-setters and creates the potential for a surprise....furthermore we have more athletes competing than in other Olympics, as host

At 2-1 we are being the offered the opportunity to have a punt on these trends here, and in effect buying UK/Selling Russia




The alternative market of total medals has a pivot point of 62.5 medals under/over. We had 47 in 08, and forecasts for 12 are 56,57,59,60 from four seperate forecasters

"Sheffield Hallam's Simon Shibli says he is 'comfortable' with the gold-medal projection but believes Britain may win more than 56 medals in total. He said: "Just from me looking at it, 56 in total is a bit on the shy side."

2-1 on top three is more attractive than 8-11 the under/over 62.5 in my opinion

On.

TightEnd   Bet365   Misc.   Olympics - Britain's finishing place   3rd or better   2/1   50

1       
Great Britain 3rd or higher
      Olympic Medal Table Placing 2012
To Win Outright       12/08/2012       
2/1
      None       To Run
Stake 50.00    To Win  100.00

[MereNovice]

I promised you a banzai or two for The Open so here is my first offering.

John Daly to be the first round leader @ 200/1 with youwin(who only let me have £2.05 on having opened an account especially, tossers!) but there's a good chance of getting matched on BF.

Daly has been playing really well of late, is a proven links player and has a nice early start.

I suggest £5 win.

I may be completely wrong but isn't Daly most famous for hitting the ball enormous distances? Therefore isn't he likely to find the rough more than other players. I thought that the general plan this week was to back people who hit straight due to the extreme nature of the rough.

[hector62]

Open golf.

A few picks for you to mull over. I like betting on the 1st round leader in the open because the weather can play such a big part. It looks like wind is the crucial factor on day 1 so I think early and late starters will have an advantage. My early starter choice, Daly, has already been advised so I will offer you 2 late starters. Both players make lots of birdies and capable of putting a one off great round together.

Leishman @ 208-1 on Betfair

F Jacobsen @ 104-1 Betfair.

£2.50 0n both.

I am particularly taken with the idea of lots of yelling at the TV screen " In the grass!" hopefully for only 2 days so I am going to back Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson to miss the cut, but they are not bets I will put forward for the thread.

As for who will win the Claret Jug.

Lee Westwood is one of the straightest drivers and should stay out of trouble. The greens are meant to be flat and fair so his suspect putting will not be such a hindrance. His slight injury that he had throughout the French open has cleared up and I think his turn may have finally come.

£15 win @ 20-1 in lots of places.

[MereNovice]

hector62 has endorsed the John Daly bet so I'm happy to go with it.
However, the best price is now 150/1 (including youwin).
Is this still a bet?

[Karabiner]

hector62 has endorsed the John Daly bet so I'm happy to go with it.
However, the best price is now 150/1 (including youwin).
Is this still a bet?

Definitely worth a small  investment, I'd suggest £5 max.

[MereNovice]

hector62 has endorsed the John Daly bet so I'm happy to go with it.
However, the best price is now 150/1 (including youwin).
Is this still a bet?

Definitely worth a small  investment, I'd suggest £5 max.

On.

Karabiner   BetFred   Golf   The Open: first round leader   John Daly   150/1   £5

The Open Championship - 1st Round Leader
1st Round Leader
Daly, John   150/1   
Total stake   £ 5.00
Estimated return   £ 755.00

[MereNovice]

Open golf.

A few picks for you to mull over. I like betting on the 1st round leader in the open because the weather can play such a big part. It looks like wind is the crucial factor on day 1 so I think early and late starters will have an advantage. My early starter choice, Daly, has already been advised so I will offer you 2 late starters. Both players make lots of birdies and capable of putting a one off great round together.

Leishman @ 208-1 on Betfair

F Jacobsen @ 104-1 Betfair.

£2.50 0n both.

I am particularly taken with the idea of lots of yelling at the TV screen " In the grass!" hopefully for only 2 days so I am going to back Tiger Woods and Bubba Watson to miss the cut, but they are not bets I will put forward for the thread.

As for who will win the Claret Jug.

Lee Westwood is one of the straightest drivers and should stay out of trouble. The greens are meant to be flat and fair so his suspect putting will not be such a hindrance. His slight injury that he had throughout the French open has cleared up and I think his turn may have finally come.

£15 win @ 20-1 in lots of places.

I was particularly impressed by your restraint with regard to bet-sizing and I found better prices for your first round leader choices so:

On.

hector62   Betfair   Golf   The Open: first round leader   Marc Leishman   219/1   £2.5
hector62   BetDAQ   Golf   The Open: first round leader   Fredrik Jacobson   111/1   £2.5


Marc Leishman   220   £2.50   £547.50

Fredrik Jacobson
112   £2.50   £277.50

[MereNovice]

Any more love for Lee Westwood.
Any other tips for the winner?

[MereNovice]

Cricket.
England v West Indies
Hashim Amla series runs.
Bodog have > 205.5 @ 5/6

Bet365 have set the line at 232.
SpreadEx are offering 215-230.
SpIn are offering 225-240.

In the two warm-up matches Amla scored 64 and 77 (ret) although not against the strongest of attacks.

In his last series against England he scored 311 @ 44.43 in a 4 test series.
In his last series in England he scored 275 @ 45.83 in a 4 test series.

Comments?

On.

Following positive comments from TightEnd, I've plunged.

MereNovice   Bodog   Cricket   England v SA Test Series – Amla runs   > 205.5   5/6   £54

GB£ 54.00  Win Single:
OVER (205.5) @ 5/6 (Total Series Runs)
Eng v SA - Total Series Runs - Hashim Amla
Player Specials 
Total Stake:  GB£ 54.00
To win:     GB£ 45.00

[TightEnd]

Golf Banzai please

Tom Lehman £5 e/w at 250-1 Skybet: 6 places EW.

Tom Watson at Turnberry in 2009 almost pulled off a shock 1500/1 win victory, and Greg Norman was 500/1 when he seriously contended going down the stretch at Birkdale in 2008. Lehman won here in 1996 and also finished 4th at St Andrews in 2000.

Lehman is the top senior golfer around, and seniors have a good record in these Opens where nous and experience can really come into play

senior tournament form-line of 2(Senior US Open)-2-1-4-29-2 in his last six events.

No1 on the PGA Senior Tour for Greens in Regulation, Total Driving and Ball Striking. Greens in reg is going to be a major stat in these conditions I would think?

Lehman finished 22nd at Sandwich and 14th at Turnberry on his last 2 visits to The Open


Just as part of your portfolio, please

[MereNovice]

Golf Banzai please

Tom Lehman £5 e/w at 250-1 Skybet: 6 places EW.

Tom Watson at Turnberry in 2009 almost pulled off a shock 1500/1 win victory, and Greg Norman was 500/1 when he seriously contended going down the stretch at Birkdale in 2008. Lehman won here in 1996 and also finished 4th at St Andrews in 2000.

Lehman is the top senior golfer around, and seniors have a good record in these Opens where nous and experience can really come into play

senior tournament form-line of 2(Senior US Open)-2-1-4-29-2 in his last six events.

No1 on the PGA Senior Tour for Greens in Regulation, Total Driving and Ball Striking. Greens in reg is going to be a major stat in these conditions I would think?

Lehman finished 22nd at Sandwich and 14th at Turnberry on his last 2 visits to The Open


Just as part of your portfolio, please

You asked so nicely, it would be rude not to.

On.

TightEnd   BetFred   Golf   The Open   Lehman - e/w   300/1   £10

The Open Championship - Outright
Tournament Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6   Lehman, Tom   300/1   
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 1,885.00

[tikay]

Evening all.

Feet not touched the ground since coming home, but I'm really looking forward to The Open.

Had hoped to watch the whole thng, start to finish, a lifetime ambition, but I had forgotten I am working tomorrow night, so will just miss the end of Day One.

We have no "hole in one or not" bet, I note, though I gather there are "often" hole in one's here.  (Is it "hole in ones" or "holes in one"?) 

No stat-specials, either, but Sandy (henrik) told me earlier in the week that he was away, working, this week. His input will be much missed.

If I read it correctly, Fred has....

Outright:

Fowler EW

Furyk EW

Lehman EW

1st Round Leader:

Daly

Lehman

Jacobsen

I'm off to the Golf betting Thread to see what other stuff is fancied.

Good luck Fred!