Tips for Tikay

[TheDazzler]

I know the thread is on at 6-4 but can anybody give me a good reason why Uruguay are still not a great bet at 11-10 to win their Olympic group ? (forget 5-4 bwin are useless)

Seems a great price to me still...Discuss ?

http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/football/mens/group-a/winner

Cos they may not want to win their group maybe?
This is someones post on Tim Vickerys BBC blog about the Olympic football. Sounds plausible.

"I agree about Team GB being outclassed, but there is a chance that they might top Group A - and I'll explain why.

This tournament "only" requires teams to play 6 matches, as opposed to 7 at the World Cup, but they do so in just 16 days, instead of 35. And with an 18 man squad, instead of 23. Teams are going to get tired, and there are going to be injuries, which with only 16 outfield players per squad is quite a risk to carry.

If Uruguay win Group A they pretty much condemn themselves to a Semi-Final against Brazil, and any of us who look the squads up on Wikipedia can see that those are the two teams with the most top-level experience and the best players - as well as their senior coaches.

But if Uruguay obtain maximum points from their first two games against UAE and Senegal, they can play all their reserves against England (the "Leonidas" principle from 1938!), come second and head for a Semi-Final against the far weaker Spain team instead of Brazil.

In doing so they guarantee themselves at least a Silver medal, whereas if they play Brazil instead of Spain in the Semis they take a serious risk of ending up with Bronze.

Uruguay's defence looked pretty raw anyway in conceding 4 goals last week against Chile Under-25. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they contrive to let Senegal or Team GB win Group A to keep themselves away from Brazil until the Final."

 

[TightEnd]

Thoughts on the cricket?

I've taken Mr End'd advice and laid the draw.. is the hoped for wearing of the pitch not happening or are SA batting out of the world?

They've batted out of this world. They had the benefit of the one session, yesterday, with humid cloud cover to restrict us to under 400

Since then it is flawless. Not a lot England could do about it

England might have 4 sessions to survive late tomorrow/Monday. By then the pitch will be low and the boot will be firmly on the other foot.

Touch and go, sadly for layers of the draw.

 

I'm not averse to "redding out" if you think the price is wrong..

How would you price it up now?

Draw a marginal favourite over a SA win, Eng any price.

8/11 the draw, something like that 6/4 SA

I think the market is assuming that a) England will bat it out if necessary and b) SA might not declare early enough anyway, might just be interested in knackering the English bowlers ahead of the next two tests

It therefore has the draw shorter.

[MereNovice]

Thoughts on the cricket?

I've taken Mr End'd advice and laid the draw.. is the hoped for wearing of the pitch not happening or are SA batting out of the world?

First test of the series and neither side will want to lose so I don't foresee any challenging declarations or rash batting to set a target.
South Africa lead by 18. I'd expect them to progress at the same scoring rate until lunch time so they may lead by 100 at lunch.
If De Villiers (or even Duminy) gets going they could score very quickly and declare soon after tea with a lead of about 250.
My feeling is that the pitch won't deteriorate as much as expected. I think there have been several wickets this season that looked like they would become unplayable but they've all stood up pretty well. Perhaps it's a by-product of the wet summer. My memory may be playing tricks on me though.
The draw is 1.55 on Betfair and that seems fair to me.

I'll definiteiy defer to Mr End's judgement though; he certainly knows more about The Oval than me.

Surely there's virtually no downside to SA going for quick runs tomorrow morning?

If they lose 2 or 3 wkts they can ease off..

I'm not sure that Amla can move through the gears well and Kallis marches to the beat of his own drum. I view him as a bit like Boycott in that his opinion is that him doing well is what is best for the team. It may seem a bit odd given his IPL experience but I'd expect them to soldier on and for England to get very defensive if things start to get out of hand.

I may well be wrong though.

[The Camel]

Thoughts on the cricket?

I've taken Mr End'd advice and laid the draw.. is the hoped for wearing of the pitch not happening or are SA batting out of the world?

They've batted out of this world. They had the benefit of the one session, yesterday, with humid cloud cover to restrict us to under 400

Since then it is flawless. Not a lot England could do about it

England might have 4 sessions to survive late tomorrow/Monday. By then the pitch will be low and the boot will be firmly on the other foot.

Touch and go, sadly for layers of the draw.

 

I'm not averse to "redding out" if you think the price is wrong..

How would you price it up now?

Draw a marginal favourite over a SA win, Eng any price.

8/11 the draw, something like that 6/4 SA

I think the market is assuming that a) England will bat it out if necessary and b) SA might not declare early enough anyway, might just be interested in knackering the English bowlers ahead of the next two tests

It therefore has the draw shorter.

What is Smith's past record as regards to declarations?

Loose aggressive or tight as a gnat's chuff?

[TightEnd]

Smith is cautious

However assuming SA reach tea 250 on he has a "shot to nothing" to declare and see if he can make inroads before close of play

Not to do so in a 3 test series would be an opportunity wasted


The best thing that could happen actually is for SA to lose wickets tomorrow, frequently. If they do then you don't have to fret a declaration, and you'll know the pitch is worsening to cause that to happen

[The Camel]

Smith is cautious

However assuming SA reach tea 250 on he has a "shot to nothing" to declare and see if he can make inroads before close of play

Not to do so in a 3 test series would be an opportunity wasted


The best thing that could happen actually is for SA to lose wickets tomorrow, frequently. If they do then you don't have to fret a declaration, and you'll know the pitch is worsening to cause that to happen

If SA lose wkts, there would have to be 18 wkts pretty damn quick for there to be a result, surely?

[MereNovice]

been given this by a friend who punts the golf for a living

50-1 bet365 and ladbrokes suggest £7.50 eway (1-4 odds first 4) on JASON KOKRAK in the true south classic expect price to be cut fairly shortly

reasoning is basically he has won 6 events in the last 2 years (2 on nationwide 4 on e tour) unlike most of these near the top of the leaderboard who struggle to get the job done

On.

horseplayer   Bet365   Golf   True South Classic   Kokrak e/w   50/1   £15

Jason Kokrak       True South Classic
Outright Winner      22/07/2012      50/1      4 Places
1/4 Odds      To Run

[TightEnd]

Smith is cautious

However assuming SA reach tea 250 on he has a "shot to nothing" to declare and see if he can make inroads before close of play

Not to do so in a 3 test series would be an opportunity wasted


The best thing that could happen actually is for SA to lose wickets tomorrow, frequently. If they do then you don't have to fret a declaration, and you'll know the pitch is worsening to cause that to happen

If SA lose wkts, there would have to be 18 wkts pretty damn quick for there to be a result, surely?

Yes, but there are still 190 overs in the match

If the pitch does go, plenty of time


If it doesn't go, then SA will have a stab at 4 sessions (105-110+ overs) to win it

A lot can happen on days 4 and 5. However as you recognise there has to be some intent on the side in the ascendancy to force it

[horseplayer]

smith wont force anything

best chance from south africa now is if these two get out fairly early and the aggressive lower middle order let fly

[Horneris]

Why is Wiggins odds on for sports personality?

I can't think of anything more boring than someone riding a bicycle.

[Tal]

Why is Wiggins odds on for sports personality?

I can't think of anything more boring than someone riding a bicycle.

Someone sitting by a bicycle, reading 100 Mediocre Telegraph Poles of the East Swindon Area 1978. On a kindle.

[Alverton]

Why is Wiggins odds on for sports personality?

I can't think of anything more boring than someone riding a bicycle.

Because no-ones won an Olympic gold medal yet.

[Horneris]

Why is Wiggins odds on for sports personality?

I can't think of anything more boring than someone riding a bicycle.

Someone sitting by a bicycle, reading 100 Mediocre Telegraph Poles of the East Swindon Area 1978. On a kindle.

hahaha

[tikay]

South Africa 277/2 at tea.
Amla 131 not out.

Paul Lawrie one stroke up on Kuchar after 4 holes.

McDowell +1 today thru 5 holes.

Thanks  Vince.

Well done Tighty for sticking up that Amla bet......

I'm riddled with conscience here. It was Vince who stuck that bet Amla up, not Tighty, I was just having a little "sport", but I fear people may have taken me at my word, sorry!

An incredible bet, stunning value.

[MereNovice]

South Africa 277/2 at tea.
Amla 131 not out.

Paul Lawrie one stroke up on Kuchar after 4 holes.

McDowell +1 today thru 5 holes.

Thanks  Vince.

Well done Tighty for sticking up that Amla bet......

I'm riddled with conscience here. It was Vince who stuck that bet Amla up, not Tighty, I was just having a little "sport", but I fear people may have taken me at my word, sorry!

An incredible bet, stunning value.

Tighty strongly endorsed the bet.
Fred wouldn't have placed it without his support.