Tips for Tikay

[rfgqqabc]

Mere these stats are somewhat irrelevant. Taunton is well known for being a short ground with lots of runs available. I'd be somewhat reluctant backing overs here with this factored in, but Spin seem to on side with us, how close is there spread to making 40 boundaries good value? These T20 markets have been priced up poorly in the past, I'm not taking anything on the over 40 boundaries as I'm already heavily involved in the match in similar markets. We also have an edge as Dubai confirmed Shah as starting, and this may not be common knowledge yet, and certainly did not appear so yday.

Fantastic piece by Ed on the less common betting markets, problem is it is hard to get on, although this isn't a problem for Freds wage size at the moment, I'd be curious to see how well we got on post olympics on markets such as Athletics, were firms are renowned for never laying a bet of any size.

I'm not sure how the figures for all 5 matches played at Taunton are irrelevant.

The issues as I see them are:
1. The conditions at Taunton today compared to the earlier matches - it looks as though it's a scorcher
2. The merits of the bowling attacks

WP. Away forthe rest of the day. ope thread is lucky

[tikay]

and its a glorious ground




and here's a lovely sit on at Taunton school

Tighty nailed it with that ride-on Mower photo. Irresistible. 

I'm on.

[horseplayer]

(B) Making Eyes is set to run in the 220pm in Vichy, with Hugo Palmer having taken her over to France for the occasion. The race itself is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. French legislation means betting is through the PMU, a Tote. The horse/trainer are foreign, the French don't care for it much/know much about it. Hugo and the boys however have been prepping for this campaign. They know the French market will neglect the filly, leaving her overpriced versus her true probability of winning owing to the market's imperfection (unlike Example A).


sorry but this is called backfitting after the filly has won a race in france. Knowing one of the owners they are far from being big punters (the horse won at salisbury after drifting from 16's to 31-1 on betfair) they went to france purely for the better prize money and for the adventure of it all.

The filly is genuine and won 35 thousand euros for winning a weak class 1 listed stakes a filly of her rating would be very unlikely to be winning that amount of prize money over here.

[TightEnd]

"I'm not sure how the figures for all 5 matches played at Taunton are irrelevant."

Two games saw 140 batting first

Two of the other games saw 120-130 batting second


We can all fit cricket stats (like baseball, really nerd city) the way we wish. I maintain these are really unusual at Taunton. Pitches, weather in May and June being pretty unusual in Taunton accounts for that

[TightEnd]

and its a glorious ground




and here's a lovely sit on at Taunton school

Tighty nailed it with that ride-on Mower photo. Irresistible. 

I'm on.

Yup, stuff the stats, I know my audience.

[Doobs]

and its a glorious ground




and here's a lovely sit on at Taunton school

Tighty nailed it with that ride-on Mower photo. Irresistible. 

I'm on.

Yup, stuff the stats, I know my audience.

Can we move on?

[edgascoigne]

(B) Making Eyes is set to run in the 220pm in Vichy, with Hugo Palmer having taken her over to France for the occasion. The race itself is nothing special in the grand scheme of things. French legislation means betting is through the PMU, a Tote. The horse/trainer are foreign, the French don't care for it much/know much about it. Hugo and the boys however have been prepping for this campaign. They know the French market will neglect the filly, leaving her overpriced versus her true probability of winning owing to the market's imperfection (unlike Example A).


sorry but this is called backfitting after the filly has won a race in france. Knowing one of the owners they are far from being big punters (the horse won at salisbury after drifting from 16's to 31-1 on betfair) they went to france purely for the better prize money and for the adventure of it all.

The filly is genuine and won 35 thousand euros for winning a weak class 1 listed stakes a filly of her rating would be very unlikely to be winning that amount of prize money over here.

The example was given merely as that, an example where potentially one has knowledge of the market beyond that which you expect is expressed either (a) currently or (b) at the off.

I know neither the owners, Hugo, or the filly in question.

Rather I took a call on a piece of info I heard the morning of the race, from a chap I know who happens to be quite friendly with the trainer. The chap who gave me the info is something of a loose cannon, much as I love him to bits, so it was definitely a question of "judging the judge" to use Camel's phrase.

My mate informed me he had a "cast-iron, bombproof" tip. I asked him the likely price, and he replied "200s on the PMU".

Now, we take such promises with a pinch of salt of course...but I would suggest that though the owners themselves may not be punters, the yard were quietly confident.

Obv take point re: the French adventure - prize money here hopeless.

[MereNovice]

"I'm not sure how the figures for all 5 matches played at Taunton are irrelevant."

Two games saw 140 batting first

Two of the other games saw 120-130 batting second


We can all fit cricket stats (like baseball, really nerd city) the way we wish. I maintain these are really unusual at Taunton. Pitches, weather in May and June being pretty unusual in Taunton accounts for that

I think the T20 skills of bowlers like Alfonso Thomas play a big part in this.
My current feeling is that I will sit on my hands and squirm as the boundaries pile up.
I really can't make a decision until I see the teams and pitch. If I miss the price, you can all stick pins in a voodoo doll of me.

[Jamier-Host]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

England v Italy got an average of 20.34m (peak 23m) which seems a good point of comparison. I'd have thought it would do better than that, but you have the risk of it tailing off post 11pm when people head off to bed - unless they have something pretty special saved up for late on?

Would personally be on the 22m-26m segment if I was allowed a bet.

  

[TightEnd]

"I'm not sure how the figures for all 5 matches played at Taunton are irrelevant."

Two games saw 140 batting first

Two of the other games saw 120-130 batting second


We can all fit cricket stats (like baseball, really nerd city) the way we wish. I maintain these are really unusual at Taunton. Pitches, weather in May and June being pretty unusual in Taunton accounts for that

I think the T20 skills of bowlers like Alfonso Thomas play a big part in this.
My current feeling is that I will sit on my hands and squirm as the boundaries pile up.
I really can't make a decision until I see the teams and pitch. If I miss the price, you can all stick pins in a voodoo doll of me.

It wasn't being suggested for the thread.

We're on Essex, that will be sweat enough

tikay the inveterate punter can have the portfolio of exotic sweats off-balance sheet.

[TheChipPrince]

Valoooo.

David Ball joined Fleetwood from the mighty Posh yesterday. VCBet go 50-1 he's top league two scorer. Mahoosive price imo.

The guy is borderline Championship class and a real 100%er. Just never got the chance at Posh as always a couple of bigger names ahead of him in the pecking order.

Fleetwood are 7/1 for the league. Not sure their main striker should be five-oh fifty.

I would argue that with 5 strikers in Gillespie/Parkin/Titchiner/Mangan & Ball there is no main striker.

But 50/1 on Ball would be big, Fleetwood opening at 11/1 wrapped me up a packet for 12 months by cest la vie.

[MereNovice]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

England v Italy got an average of 20.34m (peak 23m) which seems a good point of comparison. I'd have thought it would do better than that, but you have the risk of it tailing off post 11pm when people head off to bed - unless they have something pretty special saved up for late on?

Would personally be on the 22m-26m segment if I was allowed a bet.

  

You're certainly allowed a tip.

[TightEnd]

The response from PaddyPower to the viewer ratings figure:

The market would be settled on BBC official figures. The BBC would calculate viewer numbers and release their viewer ratings (TAM ratings). Each Terrestrial station releases its own TAM ratings  usually published through the media, for example in the Guardian
 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/tvratings

England v Italy got an average of 20.34m (peak 23m) which seems a good point of comparison. I'd have thought it would do better than that, but you have the risk of it tailing off post 11pm when people head off to bed - unless they have something pretty special saved up for late on?

Would personally be on the 22m-26m segment if I was allowed a bet.

 

isn't lighting the flame the last thing?

and the person lighting the flame is a secret, currently?

[MereNovice]

Apologies if I appear overly argumentative today.
I blame the weather (and my personality).

[Chompy]

Valoooo.

David Ball joined Fleetwood from the mighty Posh yesterday. VCBet go 50-1 he's top league two scorer. Mahoosive price imo.

The guy is borderline Championship class and a real 100%er. Just never got the chance at Posh as always a couple of bigger names ahead of him in the pecking order.

Fleetwood are 7/1 for the league. Not sure their main striker should be five-oh fifty.

I would argue that with 5 strikers in Gillespie/Parkin/Titchiner/Mangan & Ball there is no main striker.

But 50/1 on Ball would be big, Fleetwood opening at 11/1 wrapped me up a packet for 12 months by cest la vie.

Yuh, but be surprised if Ball went there without the promise of regular first-team football tbh. Been a few sniffing around him for a while now.