Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

so if you want to mess around with it without risking a penny, when you now enter random amounts on teams it should display the what if scenario

[tikay]

so if you want to mess around with it without risking a penny, when you now enter random amounts on teams it should display the what if scenario

Yes, that is really helpful.

For me, Betfair works so much better via i-Pad than a traditional 'puter.

[Doobs]

ok no problem tikay

in its simplest form make sure you have "what if" ticked in display options

(go to more options make sure "display what if figure" is ticked, also make sure p+l net of commision is ticked)

this allows you to see what your overall figure will be without even placing the said bet

for example on this match

i backed england at 4.1 for £200 (match position england + £589.62, draw - £200 s africa - £200 )

england went to a low of 2.14 i "greened out" at 2.22 for a lay of £333 on england.

This leaves the following screen

England
» £203.27

South Africa
» £126.48

The Draw
» £126.48

Surely, you backed England at less than 4.1 to get that screen? 

Assuming this is an example, I have changed the figures to make the maths easier

I backed england at 4.1 for £200 (match position england + £620, draw - £200 s africa - £200 ) You can work this out as £200 x (4.1-1) = £200 x 3.1 = £620.  If the other outcomes come in we lose £200.

We could "green out" at 2.2 for a lay of £300 on england.  Now we are laying England at 2.2, (this gives England -£360, draw +£300, S africa +£300).  England here are £300 x (2.2-1) = £300 x 1.2 = £360, but we are now laying so we lose £360 from this bet if England win and gain £300 on the other outcomes.   

Your total position is simply the sum of the above

England + £260 (£620 - £360)

South Africa + £100 (£300 - £200)

The Draw + £100 (£300 -£200)

You'd get knocked for roughly 5% commission from these figures assuming you aren't premium charged.

[smashedagain]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

[TheChipPrince]

Would ppl be over or under on 35.5 goals between Rooney & VP?

[rfgqqabc]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

[Doobs]

Doobs who gets premium charged on betfair. It is my understanding that regular winners get charged more than 5%. Am I wrong (as usual in this)

If you have done a lot of betting/winning across a lot of markets over the years, you get premium charged.  This can be an additional 40% to 60%, less some decuctions.  I think you are always fine if you bet a lot and lose a lot.

Betfair is weird, if you don't bet much, you are charged 5%.  If you bet quite a lot, you can get charged 2%.  If you bet more than that, you can get charged 60%.  The detail is in section 7 here  http://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/. 

I don't bet nearly enough, or win nearly enough, to get premium charged. 

Probably best to not post more on this, as this topic could cause bad feeling in the thread.

[TheChipPrince]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

[TheChipPrince]

Quick check and I've overpriced them in every game. 

[TightEnd]

Tempting to be on the overs Rooney and RVP

Two worries

RVP injuries/history of before 2011



How often will Welbeck and Hernandez be rotated in and one of the big two rested for routine league games ahead of Europe/big games?

that said, i think overs not unders.

[Doobs]

Quick check and I've overpriced them in every game. 

only checked this the first one.

1.2
2
1.25
1.8
2
1.8

Gives about 18/1.  This is a bet, get on tikay

[rfgqqabc]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

[The Camel]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

If they have won their first 4 and 5 games, they'd be alot shorter for Arsenal and Fulham.

4/7 and 4/9ish

[horseplayer]

ok no problem tikay

in its simplest form make sure you have "what if" ticked in display options

(go to more options make sure "display what if figure" is ticked, also make sure p+l net of commision is ticked)

this allows you to see what your overall figure will be without even placing the said bet

for example on this match

i backed england at 4.1 for £200 (match position england + £589.62, draw - £200 s africa - £200 )

england went to a low of 2.14 i "greened out" at 2.22 for a lay of £333 on england.

This leaves the following screen

England
» £203.27

South Africa
» £126.48

The Draw
» £126.48

Surely, you backed England at less than 4.1 to get that screen? 

Assuming this is an example, I have changed the figures to make the maths easier

I backed england at 4.1 for £200 (match position england + £620, draw - £200 s africa - £200 ) You can work this out as £200 x (4.1-1) = £200 x 3.1 = £620.  If the other outcomes come in we lose £200.

We could "green out" at 2.2 for a lay of £300 on england.  Now we are laying England at 2.2, (this gives England -£360, draw +£300, S africa +£300).  England here are £300 x (2.2-1) = £300 x 1.2 = £360, but we are now laying so we lose £360 from this bet if England win and gain £300 on the other outcomes.   

Your total position is simply the sum of the above

England + £260 (£620 - £360)

South Africa + £100 (£300 - £200)

The Draw + £100 (£300 -£200)

You'd get knocked for roughly 5% commission from these figures assuming you aren't premium charged.

i had factored in profit after commission in these figures

i was wary of posting at all as i was sure somebody would comment about commission rates e.t.c.

[rfgqqabc]

Man City To Win First 6 Gmaes 25/1 (with betfred)

Fixtures are:
Southampton (H)
Liverpool (A)
QPR (H)
Stoke (A)
Arsenal (H)
Fulham (A)
-------------------------------------------------
How close is this to a bet? I priced up the games myself as complete guesses and got 11/1, not that I'm an expert in any way shape or form. Thoughts?

Quickly made it 23/1

1/4
6/4
1/3
5/6
5/6
8/11

They don't look a million miles off. 1/5 Sotton atm. 17/11 vs Lpool, 2/9 vs QPR, 6/11 Stoke, 8/11 vs Arse, 4/7 Fulham. These are best prices and Acc @ £1 stake returns 15.66 on Lads Bet Calc. Looks a great price to me.

If they have won their first 4 and 5 games, they'd be alot shorter for Arsenal and Fulham.

4/7 and 4/9ish

Did the same for Man U which is win first 6 games @ 33/1 and got £1 returns 16.18

£15 on both Tikay?

Edit: City into 20s and Man U into 25s. Man U prob worth small city closer, £10 City, £15 Man U?