Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

2012 UCI Road Cycling World Championships, Valkenburg in the Netherlands.

Sunday 23rd September Elite Men Road Race. 267km. Weather forecast, dry.

Click to see full-size image.

The route this year favours riders who can ride the Classics. Crucially the finish will about 1.5km after the Cauberg climb where the Amstel Gold Race finishes each year. Over 200 riders, narrow roads & with teams attacking from the get go, it’s a difficult & unpredictable race to predict.

A quick review of some of the fancied riders. Spain & Belgium look to have the strongest teams.

Philippe Gilbert (Belgium) is favourite. Primarily from having won two Amstel races. But this year has been a lean year for wins compared to 2011 where he was picking up victories with ease. Two stage wins in the Vuelta suggest his form is returning. Price too short & not a bet for me anyway as the finish after the Cauberg is too long for him imo.

Tom Boonen (Belgium) currently 3rd in the UCI World Tour Rankings behind Wiggins & Rodriguez. Winner in this years Tour of Flanders & Paris-Roubaix. He has been training on the route in a race simulation behind a motor bike. Price of 18/1 or there about is fine.

The Spanish team are packed with lead riders. Valverde, Contador, Freire, Rodriguez & Sanchez. Parcours suits Valverde. Not writing them off, but too many chiefs.

Italian team are young & strong, with a focus on lead rider Vincenzo Nibali. Inexperience & no radios will make it hard to control the race.

Peter Sagan (Slovakia), has had a cracking year, but fear his form has dropped since the TdF. Lack of a team doesn’t help his chances. In a recent interview he did not consider himself a favourite.

Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway), Simon Gerrans (Australia) & John Degenkolb (Germany) all have the ability to feature, but I have some reservations.

Not for Fred, but my banzai bet. Tejay van Garderen, average season spent as apprentice to Cadel Evans at BMC Racing. Impressed at the TdF. A few interviews have hinted that he may have targeted the Worlds & has kept a low profile. A strong time trialer (4th here at the Worlds) & also good on the climbs. A breakthrough ride on the world stage is due. 200/1 is available (May be I’m missing something but I would have him in the 50/1 region).

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/uci-world-championships/mens-road-race/winner

Apologies for the long way of getting there  but after a weeks pondering & dithering...

Recommend: £10.00 Tom Boonen 18/1.

What a great Preview Tonji, thank you. Look over your shoulder Tighty......

We have a £10 win with Ladbrokes @ 16/1 (missed a bit of value), Tom Boonen.

PS - Why do Ladbrokes not offer ew on this?

 
ON

Selection16/1 - Tom Boonen

EventMen's Road Race World Championships

MarketRace winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Tom Boonen
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential Return: £170.00
Time: 23/09/12 10:28
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000136

[tikay]

Tikay, did you Bet Micheal Van Gerwen @80s for the Darts World Champs??
It was suggested on here a month or so ago by someone, the Darts Season on Tv started last Night and Van Gerwen is currently tearing it up on ESPN as I type, this price will be about half that come December at this rate.
100/1 on Oddschecher with Youwin but I don't know if you have an account?

REMINDER TO SELF.

PS - I do not bet with "YouWin", is it priced up elsewhere?

I also missed your 180's bet last night, as I was unavailable - hope it won for you.

[Tonji]

Early stages of the mens world road race live http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/19690848

Crikey, I'd better get that Boonen bet on......

they are rolling along at 45km/hr, long day, likely to finish 3.30ish.

good luck

[tikay]

This is a little obscure but priced accordingly.

Arsenal have not yet had a penalty this season so we don't know for sure who's going to be taking them but we do know that Cazorla and Podolski are the designated free-kick takers so it stands to reason that it will be one of them should the opportunity arise.

In the FGS markets der poodle is ~8/1, whereas santi-baby is 17/1+ on betty if fred is quick.

I suggest £10 on Santi Cazorla to be FGS v citeh tomorrow bearing in mind that he is well capable of scoring anyway as are all of our players but he might well be on pens too.

Yours faithfully,

Banzais R Us.

Thanks Ralph, Banzais R Us are in business.

We have £10 @ 18 (17/1) with Betfair, Santi Cazorla, FGS, today's Man C v Arsenal game.

ON

(Will C & P the betslip later, cannot copy it at present).

[tikay]

Early stages of the mens world road race live http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/19690848

Crikey, I'd better get that Boonen bet on......

they are rolling along at 45km/hr, long day, likely to finish 3.30ish.

good luck

Thanks, we managed to get on.

[tikay]

probably not for thread due to length but

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/w-o-big-6

how the hell can everton not be odds on everywere in this?

Thanks.

Current best available price 11/10.

What price was the "recommend"?

I'm not mad keen on season-long stuff, but would have an interest if I have not missed the market, but I cannot see any reference to the "value" price in yesterday's musings about this.

[tikay]

Barnsley are underdogs at home to Ipswich with the same mob.

Have their odds compilers been on the wacky baccy?

Is this a recommend, please?

[tikay]

Looking at the Christmas markets already, having done nicely out of random book/video game lists in recent years.  No.1 book doesn't seem to be available at the moment, but I saw something of interest in the No.1 toy list from William Hill.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/other-specials/christmas-specials/christmas-number-one-toy/winner

The Leap Pad smashed it up last year and basically sold out everywhere, and there is a new version set to cause a similar frenzy this time around.  This market is apparently settled on the listed toys only as reported by Hamleys, and oddly I can't even find the Cabbage Patch Dolls (2nd fave) listed on their website. Regardless though 3/1 seems a huge price when Paddy Power offer only 1/4 on the same toy being Irish No.1 toy.

Bit of a random one but would recommend £25 @ 3/1. (I reckon it could end up odds on soon)

Edit - early write-up here comparing Hamleys list and popular Mums Choice list - http://www.christmastoylist.co.uk/blog/mums-choice-top-christmas-toys-2012-announced/

Recommended yesterday @ 3/1, now 6/4, so I have ducked this, unless you say otherwise.

[tikay]

Rugby Union Exeter v Saracens

Both these teams rely on defence and stifling the opposition, making points hard to come by. Saracens are the better side but this is negated by playing away. Here in Devon the wind and rain are in abundance which will make points rarer than a Chris Gayle forward defensive shot. By my reckoning the price for the draw should be about 8-1 but we can get 20-1 in several places.

Recommend £5 draw @ 20-1.

I am still waiting for the prices on total points in this match to be posted but it should be less than 35. I also wouldn't dissuade anyone from backing " no try to be scored " at 12-1.

Thanks hector.

The "Total Points" Market is now up.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/club-rugby/aviva-premiership/exeter-chiefs-v-saracens/total-points

I'll deal with that seperately if you suggest action on it.

For now, we have your original suggestion, £5 the draw, Exeter v Saracens, @ 20/1, with BetFred.

ON

Exeter v Saracens
80 Minute Betting
 Draw 20/1 
Total stake £ 5.00
Estimated return £ 105.00

Full stake £ 5.00
Full estimated return £ 105.00

[pokerfan]

probably not for thread due to length but

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/w-o-big-6

how the hell can everton not be odds on everywere in this?

Thanks.

Current best available price 11/10.

What price was the "recommend"?

I'm not mad keen on season-long stuff, but would have an interest if I have not missed the market, but I cannot see any reference to the "value" price in yesterday's musings about this.

It was 6/5, still there at 365.

[tikay]

We are now back up to date, I think?

[tikay]

probably not for thread due to length but

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/w-o-big-6

how the hell can everton not be odds on everywere in this?

Thanks.

Current best available price 11/10.

What price was the "recommend"?

I'm not mad keen on season-long stuff, but would have an interest if I have not missed the market, but I cannot see any reference to the "value" price in yesterday's musings about this.

It was 6/5, still there at 365.

Thanks Mr Fan, but I was obliquely alluding to that when I said "best available" - I cannot bet with Bet365, except for pennies. THEY don't think I'm an Ice-Cream, see? I rather like them for that.

[horseplayer]

i think anything odds against is very very fair

others seemed to agree

[TightEnd]

Leicester v Hull

Both to score http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leicester-v-hull/both-teams-to-score

Overs http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leicester-v-hull/over-under-2.5

I don't understand overs being odds against


Last 3 games Hull matches 16 goals

Last 4 matches Leicester Matches 10 goals

If bookiebasher can do it....Leicester's defence can certainly help us out, will give a soft goal most games

Think the overs is probably the best way to play it for £40 or so...

[Snowball]

Tikay, did you Bet Micheal Van Gerwen @80s for the Darts World Champs??
It was suggested on here a month or so ago by someone, the Darts Season on Tv started last Night and Van Gerwen is currently tearing it up on ESPN as I type, this price will be about half that come December at this rate.
100/1 on Oddschecher with Youwin but I don't know if you have an account?

REMINDER TO SELF.

PS - I do not bet with "YouWin", is it priced up elsewhere?

I also missed your 180's bet last night, as I was unavailable - hope it won for you.

Yeah it did.
80's with Betfred.