Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Proper nutty baggies bet.

You'll be telling me you like Arry next

[KarmaDope]

Swansea DNB

Cleveland Browns +1.5

Reasons earlier

Will look in the morning, Dean.

My gut reaction is that Swansea are correctly priced, but others can chew the cud before we decide.

Browns have had some warmth already I think, but I will need to look through the responses, and see if the lads think the line is right.

Just a thought - better odds Swansea DNB or just laying Liverpool?

[Ant040689]

Trip report from Oakwell:

Alas, no cigar.  Nothing really clear cut before Cardiff scored their first (which ironically led to Wiseman being switched from Centre Back to Right Back, so some good did come from it).

But then agony in stoppage time at the end of the first half.  We take a curling free kick from the right, Cardiff play the offside trap badly, and Tudgay is suddenly on his own on the 6 yard line, 2 metres in front of all their back 4 with only the keeper to beat.  Deft placed header into the corner (was the plan anyway), and the ball trickles wide.

Second half, he has a looping header from about 10 yards out that gives us a sweat, but it lands on the top netting.

He was subbed with about 10 minutes to go as they brought another new signing, Emile Sinclair, on for him as we chased the game from 2-1 down.

Ho hum, I'm pretty sure we won some Sklansky bucks from that anyway!

It may just be sour grapes from me but I really don't see how Cardiff have been stringing the results they have recently. At home they have been damaging teams but have been riding their luck of late and can't remember the last time they poleaxed a team convincingly. I think they are pretenders at the top of the table. Saying that aside from Palace who I believe to have the best chance of winning the league, I cannot see any other team in dominating form at all.

Bit worried about Leicester winning today but wtf is going on at Middlesbrough? Hull also lost. Millwall's run cannot go unnoticed either, that is 9 games unbeaten i believe and they are 6th.

WTF is going on in this league.

[Snowball]

I've heard Martin O'Neill has resigned, anyone else heard anything???

[tikay]

I've heard Martin O'Neill has resigned, anyone else heard anything???

Nope, but it would not surprise me. Sunderland are heading to the Championship.

[Ant040689]

I've heard Martin O'Neill has resigned, anyone else heard anything???

Nope, but it would not surprise me. Sunderland are heading to the Championship.

The break for O'Neill clearly made him a little rusty, but under no circumstances would he have them relegated if he remained in charge.

[The Camel]

16/1 best.

Disappointing.

[tikay]

16/1 best.

Disappointing.

WBA to qualify for CL? Probably missed the Market by 7 days.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0820, Sunday November 25th

PROFIT on Month = £932.50


Unsettled Bets  - £763.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 0900am, Sunday 25th November

We made £85.50 profit yesterday.

Oohs & aahs galore, & we got lucky in a few spots, & unlucky in others. In October, we lost most of these flips, in November we are seeing the other side.

One improvement in our betting pattern is the realisation that there is very rarely “value” in football match outrights, they are far & few between. That alone has saved us a fortune.

9 bets completed (though around half were “related”), & 3 won.

The Great Bolster placed, which was the plan, giving us a freeroll on the win. We never looked like winning, but if our 4 day sweat had lasted one stride further, we would have done the lot. Not sure TGB enjoyed the ground, he seemed to run in snatches, & was not fluent at a good few fences. The winner was well worthy, & well done Doobsy who was on the winner from the outset. For us, we had a bunch of fun & a small profit. That’ll do nicely, thanks Neil, call again please.

We had 4 little football FGS bets, all failed, though by all accounts we were a shade unforch with Tudgay.

In the Rugby, we had 4 bets, 2 won, both down to Tighty, but it was Tom Fred Carny’s Circus stuff, as an unintended bet won us £100. Shush, not a word to a soul, right?

A thoroughly enjoyable & exciting day, & we made a bob or two. Lovely.

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[Tal]

Pujara's average is in tatters now. They'll be calling for his head.

Is there room for someone who only has an average of 194?

[Tonji]

Monty may well turn out to be the difference between the two sides in this series. Looks to me to be the best bowler.

[TightEnd]

What a day of test cricket that was

England got a crucial 86 run lead thanks to fantastic centuries from Pietersen and Cook

Then got 7 Indian wickets by the end on a complete minefield

It has to be said that Panesar and Swann have comprehensivley outbowled Ashwin, in particular. Panesar only the second English spinner to take 10 wickets in a match in India, and a triumphant return for a much maligned player.

Dhoni asked the curator for a pitch that spun from day one and that has come back to bite him, with the underperformance of his spinners

Of course commentators are now suggesting that India should have prepared a flat one, as England's spinners are less prepared to be effective on those, but that is hindsight really. I think most in India would have fancied their chances on a dustbowl

From here then, India are an effective 31-7. Wouldn't fancy chasing 120 much, but India probably won't get that far


admin note: The England first innings top batsman bets lose

admin note Pujara failed, but as the Indian scorecard, Gambhir apart, resembles a telephone number, no damage done. The important thing for the Pujara bet is that he was fit to bat. Furthermore the next pitch in Kolkata is going to be flatter than a Crown Green bowling rink.

So, 1-1 then?

Well done to Doobs, who is on England for value! bring it home, lads....

[hector62]

Morning Mr T. I wanted to tip Exeter to beat London Irish today, and I think they will, but I have found a better tip for you at a nice price.

As it is Sunday I have donned my new found F1 experts hat and looked at the Brazilian GP. I love it when it rains during the race and there is rain forecast. In looking at last weeks Frank Bruno bet I paid particular attention to those people who qualified from P10 downwards and how they then raced. I have then looked at how they performed during the season and I have found what may be a little gem.

Daniel Ricciardo races for the Toro Rosso team and has scored 10 points this season, pretty average. He scored in the 1st GP and then went 10 without pointifying. Now in the last 8 races he has got points in 5 of them. In those races he has never qualified higher than 14th but he has averaged a  gain of 6 places per race.

Today he starts in 15th place which is bang on where he usually does. I am not sure if the prospect of a wet race helps him at all as he has done well without it but at the price we get I think it is worth investing.

Suggest £20 Ricciardo to pointify @ 4-1 BetFred.

P.S I found this one all on my one too.

[Bad Beat]

I have two games in the NFL where I may end up having two bets or none. It's been going round in my head and I can't decide.

 Does anyone have thoughts on the following? Would anyone like to throw out the worst one and then I'll only have one value loser?

 1. Oakland (at Cinncy) +8.5. Obviously we can all see that Oakland are terrible, that they have no running game and that their defence is terrible. It's also possible that they have totally given up. They are always ill-disciplined and they give away bad penalties and stupid TDs.

 This is Cinncy though - a 5-5 team who really didn't ought to be an 8.5 point favourite over anyone. I quite like Cinncy and I've won this year taking them with some points, but I could never lay 9 points to be with them.

 I read one fun stat. Cinncy when favourite by more than a FG in the last 6 years (obv doen't happen that often) are 4-13 ATS.

 2. Kansas +10 (vs Denver). Obviously Kansas are pretty terrible and Denver are on a streak. When you look at that 5-game winning streak though it involves beating San Diego twice, Cinncy, New Orleans and Carolina.I'm not convinced.

 This is a game where a line will have been set to try and split action rather than the result. The public are mad for Denver - who wants to tell their friends they bet KC? The syndicates took +10.5 on Thursday and Friday.

 Home dogs of 7+ are 59% since 1991 ATS and the syndicates always bet home dogs of 10 or more blindly. One ATS stat I read amazed me. Home dogs of 8 points or more are currently on a streak of 20-1 ATS in the NFL. That sounded wrong but I liked it.



 I lean towards KC now I've written all this down.