Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

https://sb.ladbrokes.com/novo/application/en_GB/ladbrokes/wap/proxyDataBrowsing?id=210005396&isLive=false&level=Type

Prices are up for today's games.

Polgar is 18/1 to beat our man Carlsen with Black today. She has been known for years as The Female Tal because of how aggressively she plays. She is a danger in any game but has yet to put it all together in this tournament. Her aggression has generally led to her leaving weaknesses in her position (fine if you win with your attack, but if it doesn't work, you have overcommitted). Provided Magnus weathers the storm, you see him having the more solid structure in the endgame and the better tekkers.

Anand has a good record against Adams which explains why the Cornishman is 12/1 to win today with Black. Their games have an interesting fit but Anand is generally better in the key departments. The issue is form, really, but Anand is off the back of his first win in 18 games and with that monkey firmly elsewhere, it is hard to see him losing.

Luke McShane is even money to win today against Gawain Jones (well, 19/20 is his price). The draw is Evs and Jones is 9/1. McShane will likely play something very solid and let Jones come at him, hoping to play on the counter. You could make a case for all three prices. My instinct is the draw at Evens is the best price. They don't play very often and they've both had disappointing tournaments to-date. What I will say is this won't be a "Grandmaster Draw" where neither player shows much interest in trying to win. Both will see this as an opportunity to get a W on the board (there is a small financial incentive to winning a game). If you back the draw, you will need to strap yourself in for a rollercoaster ride but I suspect Jones's gusto and McShane's imagination might even out at the death.

Kramnik plays Black against Aronian today and, with Carlsen half a point clear and with the edge of Black wins, Kramnik might well feel he needs to pull this one out of the bag. 11/2 would be much more inviting, had Aronian not had effectively two days off to prepare. Having said that, Aronian has struggled to find form here and you wonder whether there is any reason to suspect he will be able to turn over the seemingly immovable object that is Kramnik. 7/2 says he can but I don't see that as value. These two played a short match in the summer, which ended mostly in draws, but Kramnik is playing better now than he was then.

If you were a punting man, Kramnik at 11/2 is a good price IMO, at least in the sense that I think he wins in this particular situation at least 1 in 5 times. The draw is rightly a heavy favourite, nevertheless.

I'm stopping short of a recommend, though, as we have only a little Carlsen profit to play with.


As an aside, I'm likely going to watch the action again tomorrow.

[DungBeetle]

"I love O'Driscoll. Why don't you rate him?"

I think he did well at Doncaster before he went stale there, but when I have seen Forest this season (three times perhaps) they have been really poor.   I've heard from about four Forest fans, one on hear who say he has set up negatively at home to some teams (eg Hull).  I feel Forest missed a trick with this appointment as they could have gone for a new level with the cash injection (and I'm not suggesting Sven!).  For me O'Driscoll is one of those guys who will exceed expectations on a limited budget, but will be found wanting when he has the budget to force the pace.  In the Keith Hill/Sean Dyce category for me.  I don't think he's bad, but don't think he is he right man for a team of Forest's ambition.  To be fair perhaps they are still feeling the wounds of the McLaren fiasco.

[Acidmouse]

"I love O'Driscoll. Why don't you rate him?"

I think he did well at Doncaster before he went stale there, but when I have seen Forest this season (three times perhaps) they have been really poor.   I've heard from about four Forest fans, one on hear who say he has set up negatively at home to some teams (eg Hull).  I feel Forest missed a trick with this appointment as they could have gone for a new level with the cash injection (and I'm not suggesting Sven!).  For me O'Driscoll is one of those guys who will exceed expectations on a limited budget, but will be found wanting when he has the budget to force the pace.  In the Keith Hill/Sean Dyce category for me.  I don't think he's bad, but don't think he is he right man for a team of Forest's ambition.  To be fair perhaps they are still feeling the wounds of the McLaren fiasco.

He has been their since July, he signed 11 players. You simply cannot judge a manager or a team until they have been given at least a season if not 2. Forrest are 4 points of 6th about halfway through the season, where they are playing badly? blimey Forrest fans dont want much do they.

[DungBeetle]

I had a brief chat with Bobby yesterday about the form of Ali Carter before he beat Bingham and he is underdog again today against Murphy who nearly lost to our Belgian sensation.

I see no reason to abandon The Captain today as he is in fine form and, crucially, good health.  I think the semis are first to 9 frames over two sessions today which should suit Carter's matchplay even more.  Although Murphy is respected he has a nasty habit of looking great in the first few rounds before throwing in a poor performance but even if he doesn't I fancy Carter to take care of business.

Recommend £50 at around 2.2

Dung

[DungBeetle]

"You simply cannot judge a manager or a team until they have been given at least a season if not 2"

I agree, but that isn't the way it works anymore.  I'd be more worried about the Forest performances than the results from a long term perspective.  I've only seen them three times thought and am not a Forest fan, so happy to be corrected if I am missing the O'Driscoll master plan from someone who has seen all the games.

But anyway, personally I'd rather be on Burnley than the home team this weekend.

[TightEnd]

Another good day for England in the cricket, they lead by 190 with the tail left and are well placed to go 2-1 up

Although it won't be easy to take ten Indian wickets, the pitch is now a bit uneven, with some spin so rightly England are 8-13 favourites to scoop

An odd stat today was that Cook's comical run out was his FIRST ever in first class cricket, let alone test cricket

The underperformance of the Indians is quite staggering really. Not so much the bowlers, as the pitch here has done very little but for the batsmen to only get 320 first up was about 200 too light. In the field the team looks old, slow and unfit

I suppose that's what $2m contracts for the IPL does for you.


Anyway we can safely write off the Bell bet. He's over 500 runs behind Cook with only two innings to go

Anderson is live, just and the sole series bet remaining 3-1 is about to fall


Go Pujara.....save us from cricketing debacle....

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

Rugby Union Connacht v Biarritz tonight.

Betting against Irish teams at home is only beaten in stupidity by betting on French teams away from home. Biarritz have the better players but it will be cold, wet, and windy and they will not be happy bunnies there. Comparing the results of the sides so far makes it a pretty even call. Both teams have a chance of qualifying but this one and next weeks rematch will decide it. In this competition last year Biarritz lost away to the Italian side Treviso so it is not at all unusual for them to underperform away from home.

I can't really make Connacht a bigger price than 6 or 7/4 but we can back them at 5/2.

Suggest £20 @ 5/2 with Sporting bet.

P.S reread and absorb the bolded word Mr T.

[Jamier-Host]

I think it was recommended by Jamie?

Hopefully we were on

Think not, I did a pretty good hatchet job

You did too, but I was already of the same mind as you, I genuinely felt we needed to know how the tables were running first. Personally, without that info, I could not really make the bet, as it is so venue & table specific. 

Well done to Jamie for the spot, though, & I'm pleased for all who got on.

Yep, were fair points. Being a bit of a mug I'd already got involved though - however would prob have topped up if comments were more favourable.

I reckon I'd take a bit shorter odds for the Worlds too so will keep an eye when those go up. You'd imagine the promoters would be keen to set the tables up for big breaks as it helps grab a few headlines when the 147's go in.

[TightEnd]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

 

[Jamier-Host]

Btw Paddy Power have 16/1 on Brecel winning the World Champs within the next 3 years. Cut from 25/1 yesterday though so someone here may well have had a bit of that already?

(not intended as SPAM even though I happen to work for them. Only company with the market)

[DungBeetle]

"Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle"

Yes - this looks a good price doesn't it on the Blades?

[TheChipPrince]

I am going to Coventry v Walsall tomorrow, will report back.

[bookiebasher]

I quite like the Sheff W bet but on the betfred bonus coupon you
can get 9-2 for a treble which equates to 4-5 4-5 8-11 shots.

Going for Sheff W , Wigan , C.Palace matches.... individual prices
are around 8-13 4-6 4-7.

Plus a soft tenner on the lot in the championship of course

[TightEnd]

I quite like the Sheff W bet but on the betfred bonus coupon you
can get 9-2 for a treble which equates to 4-5 4-5 8-11 shots.

Going for Sheff W , Wigan , C.Palace matches.... individual prices
are around 8-13 4-6 4-7.

Plus a soft tenner on the lot in the championship of course

good stuff

9-2 on those 3 looks good

[FUN4FRASER]

Bristol C play at Sheff Wed tomorrow

Sheff Wed have 1 clean sheat in 20 games

Bristol C have no clean sheets in 20 games

Two poor sides, though Bristol C do score goals recently. Combined negative goal difference this year is -27


Both teams to score has been a complete bonanza this season in the Championship, as we have discussed on here

I am thinking that BTTS at 8/13 for this game might be a genuine 1/2 shot

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-bristol-city/both-teams-to-score




In League One I continue to oppose a poor Carlisle side sliding towards the bottom 4 and threatening our Walsall slide

Tomorrow they host Sheff U, who concede few goals away, only 7 in 10 games and are needing a result after a loss last league game took them out of the top two

Carlisle have lost 6 at home, conceding 25 goals in the 10 home games

Sheff U are 13/10 in two spots and to my mind are odds on at Carlisle

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/carlisle-v-sheffield-utd/winner

 

Being a Sheffield Lad.....................I Love the both teams to score  in The Owls game Rich

Sheff Utd could win at Carlisle though I think the price is about right at best in a league where by your own admisission anything can happen especially with them playing away from home....so recomend

Sheff Weds match (max bet )

Sheff Utd  match  (no or small bet )