Tips for Tikay

[LeedsRhodesy]

For them on my Bradford city tip

We have signed Andy gray from leeds today think he is a great signing for league two

We are now out to 20/1  E/w bet covers 1/2/3  we are 3 points from 3  so much value think I will be topping up

[tikay]

So, we're fully into film awards season, with the BAFTA noms today and Oscars tomorrow.

Wit the BAFTASs Lincoln is the fav for Best Film - mostly odds on but Ladbrokes go 11/8, which seems quite the rick. However, I think it's the Laddies price which is more right - it's surely a huge black mark against a film to win the top gong when its director (and film royalty such as Spielberg at that) doesn't get nominated, so I'm looking to oppose Lincoln in this market.

Opportunity here as the disparity in opinion on Lincoln means best prices with the four bookies offering odds is a 95% book.

The problem we have is that it's quite an uninspiring list of films.

Zero Dark Thirty/Argo - USA! USA! Team America stuff. Add in question marks about ZDT being a CIA propaganda film and Argo not really being a big enough film (not seen it but by all accounts it's a good little film but doesn't shout 'award winner') and I'm opposing these.
Life of Pi - ZOMG COMPUTER TIGER. Its cod spirituality and less than stellar critical response here should mean it won't win.

Which leaves us with Les Miserables. It is a British film, the musical owes its success to being a hit in London (the original French version was a flop) and it has scale (big sets and lots of extras). Hugh Jackman is popular and well-liked here, Anne Hathaway got skinny and cut her hair for her role and it has a sprinkling of British names in the cast. It ticks my boxes.

Therefore recommend £25 on Les Mis to win Best Film at the BAFTAs at 4/1 (Hills)

Thanks Andrew.

After some initial confusion, we are on, for the BAFTA's.

I'm not so keen on this art crap, but as the first ever Fred bet was on some film bollox or other as I recall, I guess we'd best try & celebrate & do another. One per year is plenty.

We have £25 @ 4/1, Wiliam Hill, "Les Miserables" to win BAFTA "Best Picture".

ON

 10 Feb 2013 - BAFTAs 2013 - Best Film - Best Film

Tip ItLes Miserables @ 4/1

Stake : £25.00
Estimated Returns : £125.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000242/F

[Horneris]

For them on my Bradford city tip

We have signed Andy gray from leeds today think he is a great signing for league two

We are now out to 20/1  E/w bet covers 1/2/3  we are 3 points from 3  so much value think I will be topping up

He is a great signing for League Two!

[Tal]

Can see the logic in Les Mis for the Bafta, as it has been so successful over here as a musical for years. We Brits also like Russell Crowe and Ali G/Borat (but not Bruno or that Dick Tater fella).

Stand by my Jessica Chastain for Best Actress in the Oscars tho. That girl will be a star.

[bobby1]

I think there might have been a change the timings of the casting of Oscars votes this year, I can't look up the piece I read at the mo but I think it might have been along the lines off the academy voting before some of the other awards nights take place. That might be well known but it was news to me, If it has changed does that affect the Oscar markets this year, for example there is usually a view that if film A wins other award A then it has more chance of winning the Oscar but if Oscar votes are done before the other award nights could it mean a far more open year as the previous years bias towards the winners of other awards won't be a factor?

I think that was the gist of the article but someone might have to verify that.

[tikay]

Can see the logic in Les Mis for the Bafta, as it has been so successful over here as a musical for years. We Brits also like Russell Crowe and Ali G/Borat (but not Bruno or that Dick Tater fella).

Stand by my Jessica Chastain for Best Actress in the Oscars tho. That girl will be a star.

Remind me please?

[Tal]

I've had a look around and there's a film and an actress I am convinced are going to do well in the Oscars.



Zero Dark Thirty is from the same writer/director that brought the Hurt Locker and the critics seem to be getting very excited about it and Kathryn Bigelow's directing.

Bigelow went to great lengths to convince an actress you might not have seen much of to take the lead role. She didn't have to audition and that says a heck of a lot when the director isn't recruiting a major name.

The critics seem united that this is a very strong performance in a gritty and very challenging film. I believe this is the sort of film that will gain popularity with Obama's Inauguration in January and as the film gets around the world. What makes it interesting - according to the reviews - is that it doesn't actually have an American ending of "USA! USA! USA" which, considering the nonsense they made of U571 et al, is quite an achievement.

Chastain was in The Help and in the utterly fabulous Coriolanus if you recognise her.

I'm going to have a bet for a bit of fun on Jessica Chastain, who is as short as 15/8 and as big as 3/1 with Stan James. She will be nominated - I sincerely hope - for Best Actress and I hope still further she will win.

I doubt Fred wants to lock up money til the ceremony but I thought I'd post, anyway.

Best price 9/4 currently. Wasn't all my money

[tikay]

I've had a look around and there's a film and an actress I am convinced are going to do well in the Oscars.



Zero Dark Thirty is from the same writer/director that brought the Hurt Locker and the critics seem to be getting very excited about it and Kathryn Bigelow's directing.

Bigelow went to great lengths to convince an actress you might not have seen much of to take the lead role. She didn't have to audition and that says a heck of a lot when the director isn't recruiting a major name.

The critics seem united that this is a very strong performance in a gritty and very challenging film. I believe this is the sort of film that will gain popularity with Obama's Inauguration in January and as the film gets around the world. What makes it interesting - according to the reviews - is that it doesn't actually have an American ending of "USA! USA! USA" which, considering the nonsense they made of U571 et al, is quite an achievement.

Chastain was in The Help and in the utterly fabulous Coriolanus if you recognise her.

I'm going to have a bet for a bit of fun on Jessica Chastain, who is as short as 15/8 and as big as 3/1 with Stan James. She will be nominated - I sincerely hope - for Best Actress and I hope still further she will win.

I doubt Fred wants to lock up money til the ceremony but I thought I'd post, anyway.

Best price 9/4 currently. Wasn't all my money

Do Afghanistan get a vote at the Oscars?

[Tal]

I think there might have been a change the timings of the casting of Oscars votes this year, I can't look up the piece I read at the mo but I think it might have been along the lines off the academy voting before some of the other awards nights take place. That might be well known but it was news to me, If it has changed does that affect the Oscar markets this year, for example there is usually a view that if film A wins other award A then it has more chance of winning the Oscar but if Oscar votes are done before the other award nights could it mean a far more open year as the previous years bias towards the winners of other awards won't be a factor?

I think that was the gist of the article but someone might have to verify that.

Good films are good films. When it comes to the big stuff (film, actor, supporting...), I would be surprised if there were a major shift in awards. The Academy has a good voting structure because of the breadth and number of voters. Doubt there will be an impact on X's chance in a major award category.

Just my opinion.

[Karabiner]

For the record, I have received today the Account Balance from my now defunct Stan James account.

It's been a pleasure Mr James.   

I was a c£500 loser when they closed me down and they never sent me a penny.

Did you get the "this decision has been taken at the highest level and will not be reversed" spiel?

[DungBeetle]

I like Rylan

he's still listed as single on his site

I'm afraid to report that I was once told to get in the queue if I wanted to date that Louis Spence dancing chap after my wife inexplicably told him I fancied him.

[bobby1]

On the snooker bet I think Murphy looks no better than the right price tbo, if I had a free bet then it would be Selby at 7/1, if he beats Bingo he plays the winner of Williams v Stevens and there could be some kind of let down for the winner of that match as they are good mates and hate playing each other and hate knocking each other out even more.

The good thing about Selby is his form for the last 12+ months can be ignored as he wasn't fit and you know he is a tough as teak match player when fit in the bigger events as he showed in York the other week but it's wide open really.

[gherkin]

Got no real reason to disagree with Bell

Tredwell. Intrinsically I don't think he's enough of a wicket-taker, Very clever experienced bowler but he'll be bowling in the middle overs where the batsmen will be nudging and nurdling and not taking too many risks.

As a standard offie he won't be bamboozling the opposition but will probably do a very good job in keeping things tight

When it comes to taking wickets though, I'd be looking at one of the seamers who is bowling start and end of innings when a) the ball will be new and b) batting risks will be taken at the death

Boringly Finn at anything over 3-1 is probably a worthy favourite.

Yep, we're pretty much agreeing.  As I said originally I think Finn is most likely, but at 3/1 there really isn't much, if any, value.  Tredwell won't bowl a team out but he will pick up a few wickets - domestically and internationally (in the last 3 seasons) he averages 1.3 wickets per game, whereas Finn averages 1.6.  India won't let him just bowl a few cheap overs at him, they'll have to take a few risks as shown in the warm up games

Broad at 4/1 is poor value and Bresnan at 5/1 is too much of a risk given his form in the last few months (neither should be shorter than Tredwell).  The "6th" bowlers (Patel, Woakes, Briggs, Meaker) are all guesswork as only 1 of them will play and they won't bowl many overs - very unlikely any of them will finish top wicket taker.  

Dernbach is well worth considering - he bowls at the death so will pick up cheap wickets , which shows in his average of 1.55 wickets per game in 1 day cricket.  The only downfall is I've backed him a couple of times recently and he's bowled pretty poorly and not come close.  Stan James are offering 11/2, way higher than the next highest at 4/1

Conclusion - IMO the 2 stand out prices are both with Stan James, so without an account there it may be a case of a no bet.  For anyone who does bet there, I believe both picks are +EV at their prices

As for Bell, 7/2 is a decent price.  Not a massive amount of value but he's in the best form by the looks of things and don't underestimate the influence Giles taking over as ODI coach will have on his confidence (knowing he is going to get a prolonged run at the top of the order).  He has a point to prove in this format of the game

Have you been involved in cricket yourself, or are you just an avid cricket fan?

Feel free to tell us something about yourself, they are a friendly bunch here.

I played to a decent standard when I was younger but nowadays just for a local team.  Watch a lot of cricket and had a season ticket at Warwickshire pretty much my whole life.  

I use to post on Blonde 7-8 years ago when I first started playing poker but I forgot my username so had to get a new one when I wanted to post something

[bobby1]

I think there might have been a change the timings of the casting of Oscars votes this year, I can't look up the piece I read at the mo but I think it might have been along the lines off the academy voting before some of the other awards nights take place. That might be well known but it was news to me, If it has changed does that affect the Oscar markets this year, for example there is usually a view that if film A wins other award A then it has more chance of winning the Oscar but if Oscar votes are done before the other award nights could it mean a far more open year as the previous years bias towards the winners of other awards won't be a factor?

I think that was the gist of the article but someone might have to verify that.

Good films are good films. When it comes to the big stuff (film, actor, supporting...), I would be surprised if there were a major shift in awards. The Academy has a good voting structure because of the breadth and number of voters. Doubt there will be an impact on X's chance in a major award category.

Just my opinion.

thanks Tal

[tikay]

Got no real reason to disagree with Bell

Tredwell. Intrinsically I don't think he's enough of a wicket-taker, Very clever experienced bowler but he'll be bowling in the middle overs where the batsmen will be nudging and nurdling and not taking too many risks.

As a standard offie he won't be bamboozling the opposition but will probably do a very good job in keeping things tight

When it comes to taking wickets though, I'd be looking at one of the seamers who is bowling start and end of innings when a) the ball will be new and b) batting risks will be taken at the death

Boringly Finn at anything over 3-1 is probably a worthy favourite.

Yep, we're pretty much agreeing.  As I said originally I think Finn is most likely, but at 3/1 there really isn't much, if any, value.  Tredwell won't bowl a team out but he will pick up a few wickets - domestically and internationally (in the last 3 seasons) he averages 1.3 wickets per game, whereas Finn averages 1.6.  India won't let him just bowl a few cheap overs at him, they'll have to take a few risks as shown in the warm up games

Broad at 4/1 is poor value and Bresnan at 5/1 is too much of a risk given his form in the last few months (neither should be shorter than Tredwell).  The "6th" bowlers (Patel, Woakes, Briggs, Meaker) are all guesswork as only 1 of them will play and they won't bowl many overs - very unlikely any of them will finish top wicket taker. 

Dernbach is well worth considering - he bowls at the death so will pick up cheap wickets , which shows in his average of 1.55 wickets per game in 1 day cricket.  The only downfall is I've backed him a couple of times recently and he's bowled pretty poorly and not come close.  Stan James are offering 11/2, way higher than the next highest at 4/1

Conclusion - IMO the 2 stand out prices are both with Stan James, so without an account there it may be a case of a no bet.  For anyone who does bet there, I believe both picks are +EV at their prices

As for Bell, 7/2 is a decent price.  Not a massive amount of value but he's in the best form by the looks of things and don't underestimate the influence Giles taking over as ODI coach will have on his confidence (knowing he is going to get a prolonged run at the top of the order).  He has a point to prove in this format of the game

Have you been involved in cricket yourself, or are you just an avid cricket fan?

Feel free to tell us something about yourself, they are a friendly bunch here.

I played to a decent standard when I was younger but nowadays just for a local team.  Watch a lot of cricket and had a season ticket at Warwickshire pretty much my whole life. 

I use to post on Blonde 7-8 years ago when I first started playing poker but I forgot my username so had to get a new one when I wanted to post something[/i][/b]

Ahh, it all makes sense now. You clearly have a deep love & understanding of cricket.

We might just do that Bell bet, as long as it is not with Stan James. I'm still a little wobbly on Tredwell though, for no logical reason I can explain.

Thanks, & I hope you hang around.

And the winner of the first ODI will be.......?