UFC on FX 7 comes to us from Brazil this Saturday with the main event seeing the top British MMA fighter Michael "The Count" Bisping square off against Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort. Huge incentive for Bisping, with a win almost certainly earning him a shot at the best fighter in the World, Anderson "The Spider" Silva. I'm proper excited for this one, ahead of me seeing a live UFC event for the 6th time at Wembley Arena in February.
The bookies have this down as a "pick-em" fight with even money available for each man and it is an interesting fight stats-wise, giving us an opportunity to place some favourable bets. Belfort is a beast. Or let me re-phrase that. Belfort is a beast in the 1st round. He has had 16 career UFC fights and in the fights that have finished inside a round he is 10-1, with the sole loss coming at the hands of the champion, Silva. Staggering statistic. Interestingly, and the main stat I am going to play on is that in the 5 UFC fights he has had that have went past the first round he is 0-5. Obviously naive to say that every time he goes past the first round he is going to lose but there are other factors to support us in this particular fight.
He is fighting Michael Bisping, a reknowned cardio king, who seems like he can fight for ten rounds (this is a 5-rounder) and this is obviously a key factor if a longer fight is a negative for Belfort. Bisping has only ever lost 4 times and 3 of those were close decisions. So only one KO loss. Although it was a monster KO by Dan Henderson. Bisping's name has also found its way onto the top ten list for strike defence with a 70% success rate which I think is a useful statistic here as he is more likely to avoid the opening barrage that Belfort is known for.
The significant strikes landed statistics are often scoffed at as the definition of a significant strike isn't always clear but I think they can be useful and can also relate to the total strikes landed. Bisping will outland Belfort in this fight once he settles, that is for sure. Belfort lands 1.35 signifcant strikes per minute, whilst Bisping lands a much more favourable 4.57 which places him just outside the UFC's top ten. Belfort infact actually gets hit with more strikes than he lands, he absorbs over 2 significant strikes per minute.
Basically, every man and his dog is either tipping Belfort in the 1st round (9/2 Bet365) or Bisping to win on points (5/2 General). I can see Bisping having to deal with a couple of ropey moments early before controlling the rest of the fight by winning all areas of the game: outstriking Belfort, putting him against the cage and landing strikes, and even mixing in the odd takedown if he finds it necessary. Belfort is a big guy and I can't see his body lasting the entire fight. The question is whether Bisping can put him away as he doesn't have the heaviest hands, I think he might just do that late on with pure volume of punches.
People should likely team into the 5/2 Bisping on points as I think it's the most likely scenario but I'm going to offer up
Michael Bisping to win in the 5th round @ 22/1 with Ladbrokes. As low as 11/1 elsewhere, I think it's the best alternative to the Bisping on points bet when all things are considered. Belfort fans should get involved in the 9/2 1st round win.
As a side note, they had a minor scuffle at the presser.....
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