Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Galatasaray 250-1 william hill or coral champions league

1/2 1, 2

just signed drogba to go with sneijder

can they win it? probably not can they now beat schalke (possibly)

with those two to add to the european experience 250-1 just looks a smidgen big

worth £2 eway

Thanks horsey.

Deffo worth £4, think of the potential ROI!

We have £2EW @ 250/1, Wiliam Hill, Galatasaray to win Champions League.

ON

12 Feb 2013 - UEFA Champions League - Outright - Outright

Tip ItGalatasaray @ 250/1  EW @ 1/2 1-2

Stake : £4.00 (£2.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £754.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000250/F

now reporting kolo toure coming in as well (not sure if he is champions league cup tied probably not)

ok not as inspiring but another player with lots of experience

[tikay]

^^^^

Crikey, have they found a big bag of money somewhere? Wages for that trio won't be cheap.

[tikay]

I placed that Galatasary bet half an hour ago, with William Hill, at 250/1.

William Hill now quote 125/1.

Fred, moves Markets.

[horseplayer]

the drogba news was not official when i posted so was a bit of a flyer

it appears they have decided it is worth a go this season and have been givien licence to sign players that are eligible for the champions league

have to factor in the fact wes has not played at all this season really and looks half the player but if he and drogba can turn it on even if only in patches they have some sort of chance

hopefully wes will end up like this man did there

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRlJHK_k6hQ

[Sheriff Fatman]

May I suggest betting the unders on tomorrow's farce of an American Football game, aka The Pro Bowl.  For those new to the NFL, this is the annual end of season NFC vs AFC game which takes place in Hawaii and is generally a bit of a jolly boys outing for those selected and their families (who still get paid $25k, I think, to participate).  It used to follow the Superbowl, but now fills in the gap in the week before, hence there'll be no Ravens or 49ers players taking part.

This celebration of all that is great in the NFL has become increasingly unwatchable in recent seasons as it's increasingly started to resemble a non-contact training session, thus allowing the QBs to sling numerous TD passes to all and sundry, while the two lines basically crouch down and shake hands with each other at each snap.  IIRC, the crowd started booing on the first drive last season.

The last two games have finished 55-41 and 59-41, leading the bookies to set points lines at the 80-83.5 mark at prices around 10/11.

However, if you look a little further back in the history, you then have to go to 2003 to find another total >80 points and most other games have had a vaguely sensible scoreline.

The bigger factor to consider is that, after last season's game, and at various points subsequent to this, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to cancel the fixture in future if the quality of the game continued in this way.  Consequently, this game will come under heavy scrutiny from the NFL and the watching public and therefore should revert to something resembling a football game once again.  I may be wrong, but the line set so high assumes a repeat of the last two season's farces and looks like a worthwhile gamble to me if the players want to retain their annual week in the sun going forward.  Don't get me wrong, it's still going to be an exhibition game, but will hopefully now look like a pre-season game, rather than a training session and (whisper it quietly) we may see some tackling going on.

Obviously, there are plenty of NFL followers who will have their own views on this, so there should be a good opportunity to sense check my thinking.

Take your pick of where's best to place a bet:
Boylesports has under 83.5 at 20/23
Skybet has the best 10/11 line of 82.5, but is obviously off-limits for Fred
Hills goes 10/11 under 82.
Pretty much everywhere else is 10/11 under 80.

Other than Skybet, I'm not sure what's on and off limits for Fred so:

Assuming Fred has an account there, I recommend £25, under 82pts with William Hill in preference to the slightly worse price on a higher line with Boyles (I await being shot by one of the experienced NFL guys for this but I'm not sure the extra 1.5pts makes much difference at a spread this high).   

I'd prefer the Boyles line to the generally available under 80pts elsewhere, but think all are playable if account restrictions at Hills and Boyles apply.

I'd also recommend giving the game 10 minutes to see if it's watchable (they do have great uniforms though!)

NB: One thing to be aware of is that special rules apply in this game (e.g. I think defences aren't allowed to blitz the QB) so this makes it easier to rack up a higher score than usual, but in a vaguely competitive game I'd probably expect something around the 70-75pt mark to be the right sort of area.

Curtis,

As per usual, whilst Rome was burning, I was dithering. Apologies.

The line you suggested was clearly too high, & has been bet down to 79.5 in most places. (82.5@ SkyBet, but I don't bet there) except Boyles, who quote 80.5. 

Is this still worth a dabble, or have we missed all the value?

Let me know, please, it is not until Midnight, though I'll be Offline before then.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/nfc-at-afc/total-points

PS - Don't suppose there are key numbers & dead numbers in Total Points?

I'd still play under 80.5.

I put in the OP that 80 was still a bet, which was the general price.

There are key numbers on total points, but not of much consequence when the line is this high.

[tikay]

Thanks Curtis, will get on board shortly.

[tikay]

May I suggest betting the unders on tomorrow's farce of an American Football game, aka The Pro Bowl.  For those new to the NFL, this is the annual end of season NFC vs AFC game which takes place in Hawaii and is generally a bit of a jolly boys outing for those selected and their families (who still get paid $25k, I think, to participate).  It used to follow the Superbowl, but now fills in the gap in the week before, hence there'll be no Ravens or 49ers players taking part.

This celebration of all that is great in the NFL has become increasingly unwatchable in recent seasons as it's increasingly started to resemble a non-contact training session, thus allowing the QBs to sling numerous TD passes to all and sundry, while the two lines basically crouch down and shake hands with each other at each snap.  IIRC, the crowd started booing on the first drive last season.

The last two games have finished 55-41 and 59-41, leading the bookies to set points lines at the 80-83.5 mark at prices around 10/11.

However, if you look a little further back in the history, you then have to go to 2003 to find another total >80 points and most other games have had a vaguely sensible scoreline.

The bigger factor to consider is that, after last season's game, and at various points subsequent to this, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to cancel the fixture in future if the quality of the game continued in this way.  Consequently, this game will come under heavy scrutiny from the NFL and the watching public and therefore should revert to something resembling a football game once again.  I may be wrong, but the line set so high assumes a repeat of the last two season's farces and looks like a worthwhile gamble to me if the players want to retain their annual week in the sun going forward.  Don't get me wrong, it's still going to be an exhibition game, but will hopefully now look like a pre-season game, rather than a training session and (whisper it quietly) we may see some tackling going on.

Obviously, there are plenty of NFL followers who will have their own views on this, so there should be a good opportunity to sense check my thinking.

Take your pick of where's best to place a bet:
Boylesports has under 83.5 at 20/23
Skybet has the best 10/11 line of 82.5, but is obviously off-limits for Fred
Hills goes 10/11 under 82.
Pretty much everywhere else is 10/11 under 80.

Other than Skybet, I'm not sure what's on and off limits for Fred so:

Assuming Fred has an account there, I recommend £25, under 82pts with William Hill in preference to the slightly worse price on a higher line with Boyles (I await being shot by one of the experienced NFL guys for this but I'm not sure the extra 1.5pts makes much difference at a spread this high).   

I'd prefer the Boyles line to the generally available under 80pts elsewhere, but think all are playable if account restrictions at Hills and Boyles apply.

I'd also recommend giving the game 10 minutes to see if it's watchable (they do have great uniforms though!)

NB: One thing to be aware of is that special rules apply in this game (e.g. I think defences aren't allowed to blitz the QB) so this makes it easier to rack up a higher score than usual, but in a vaguely competitive game I'd probably expect something around the 70-75pt mark to be the right sort of area.

Thanks, we are on.

We have £22 @ 10/11, Boylesports, UNDER 80.5 points, Pro Bowl, tonight.

ON


Bet ref: 67/69£22.00 Single
Market    Selection    Price
NFC v AFC
Total Points (E-Venue)    Under 80.5    10/11
Total stake    £22.00
Estimated return    £42.00
Full stake    £22.00
Full Estimated return    £42.00

[Tal]

One for Tighty:

Click to see full-size image.

[BigAdz]

Having spent the day watching Festival clues, I have a recommend for Fred

Even with my Tidal Bay Fan Club hat on I must say that if my boy is being aimed at the WH(which I think is lunacy, but Ruby rules the roost) I have watched again Flemenstar from all angles and have to suggest we back him for the Gold Cup with Victor(NRFB) before the Irish Hennesey.

Nothing jumped or travelled better than Flem to the final fence, and for his first attempt at 3m and considering the company and the ground I must now admit the post race reaction seems a little harsh as he was beaten less than a length. All through the race his jockey looked unsure whether to kick on or not, but with doubts about his stamina, he held onto a horse that normally front runs.

The Hennesey may well see more attacking tactics and he could run away with it, thus pushing him to favourite I expect, especially with BW missing a chance to remind us how good he is.

If Flem doesnt stay he has two other options at the festival, Ryanair and QM, so we will likely get our free stake.

At 12-1 with VC he is also the biggest price in the village.

Recommend £25 win VC @12-1

[Tal]

Messi and Ronaldo both score hat tricks tonight and Messi is still playing. Messi has now scored in 11 consecutive games, taking the record for himself.

As I type, he scores his fourth. I suppose I better hurry up and post this.

Should be a dull El Classico this week.

[tikay]

Messi and Ronaldo both score hat tricks tonight and Messi is still playing. Messi has now scored in 11 consecutive games, taking the record for himself.

As I type, he scores his fourth. I suppose I better hurry up and post this.

Should be a dull El Classico this week.

Astonishing.

[horseplayer]

Having spent the day watching Festival clues, I have a recommend for Fred

Even with my Tidal Bay Fan Club hat on I must say that if my boy is being aimed at the WH(which I think is lunacy, but Ruby rules the roost) I have watched again Flemenstar from all angles and have to suggest we back him for the Gold Cup with Victor(NRFB) before the Irish Hennesey.

Nothing jumped or travelled better than Flem to the final fence, and for his first attempt at 3m and considering the company and the ground I must now admit the post race reaction seems a little harsh as he was beaten less than a length. All through the race his jockey looked unsure whether to kick on or not, but with doubts about his stamina, he held onto a horse that normally front runs.

The Hennesey may well see more attacking tactics and he could run away with it, thus pushing him to favourite I expect, especially with BW missing a chance to remind us how good he is.

If Flem doesnt stay he has two other options at the festival, Ryanair and QM, so we will likely get our free stake.

At 12-1 with VC he is also the biggest price in the village.

Recommend £25 win VC @12-1

the vc bets are always ok with the refunds

as i posted in the post race madness of the lexus i thought flemenstar was a fair price then and i had backed him small because i felt the market had overacted

the fact pricewise has now got involved 12-1 does not have a lot of margin to me

just my view

[Tal]

Messi and Ronaldo both score hat tricks tonight and Messi is still playing. Messi has now scored in 11 consecutive games, taking the record for himself.

As I type, he scores his fourth. I suppose I better hurry up and post this.

Should be a dull El Classico this week.

Astonishing.

I assume the bookies still have to offer a market on him to score during a game. 1/3? 2/5?

[BigAdz]

Having spent the day watching Festival clues, I have a recommend for Fred

Even with my Tidal Bay Fan Club hat on I must say that if my boy is being aimed at the WH(which I think is lunacy, but Ruby rules the roost) I have watched again Flemenstar from all angles and have to suggest we back him for the Gold Cup with Victor(NRFB) before the Irish Hennesey.

Nothing jumped or travelled better than Flem to the final fence, and for his first attempt at 3m and considering the company and the ground I must now admit the post race reaction seems a little harsh as he was beaten less than a length. All through the race his jockey looked unsure whether to kick on or not, but with doubts about his stamina, he held onto a horse that normally front runs.

The Hennesey may well see more attacking tactics and he could run away with it, thus pushing him to favourite I expect, especially with BW missing a chance to remind us how good he is.

If Flem doesnt stay he has two other options at the festival, Ryanair and QM, so we will likely get our free stake.

At 12-1 with VC he is also the biggest price in the village.

Recommend £25 win VC @12-1

the vc bets are always ok with the refunds

as i posted in the post race madness of the lexus i thought flemenstar was a fair price then and i had backed him small because i felt the market had overacted

the fact pricewise has now got involved 12-1 does not have a lot of margin to me

just my view

What price will he be if he wins Henessey?

[horseplayer]

Having spent the day watching Festival clues, I have a recommend for Fred

Even with my Tidal Bay Fan Club hat on I must say that if my boy is being aimed at the WH(which I think is lunacy, but Ruby rules the roost) I have watched again Flemenstar from all angles and have to suggest we back him for the Gold Cup with Victor(NRFB) before the Irish Hennesey.

Nothing jumped or travelled better than Flem to the final fence, and for his first attempt at 3m and considering the company and the ground I must now admit the post race reaction seems a little harsh as he was beaten less than a length. All through the race his jockey looked unsure whether to kick on or not, but with doubts about his stamina, he held onto a horse that normally front runs.

The Hennesey may well see more attacking tactics and he could run away with it, thus pushing him to favourite I expect, especially with BW missing a chance to remind us how good he is.

If Flem doesnt stay he has two other options at the festival, Ryanair and QM, so we will likely get our free stake.

At 12-1 with VC he is also the biggest price in the village.

Recommend £25 win VC @12-1

the vc bets are always ok with the refunds

as i posted in the post race madness of the lexus i thought flemenstar was a fair price then and i had backed him small because i felt the market had overacted

the fact pricewise has now got involved 12-1 does not have a lot of margin to me

just my view

What price will he be if he wins Henessey?

probably 7-1 to 9-1 depending on how he wins

betfair there is plenty of 17-1 for the gold cup

hit high 30's after the apparent non staying effort last time

i do not hate the bet as i want the horse to win the gold cup i just do not think there is a lot of juice at the price of 12-1