Tips for Tikay

[millidonk]

Anyone said about opposing Liverpool yet?

[moonandback]

just logged in to do a Gonzaga update see you beat me to it so here is a picture of one of our best players Kelly olynyk, the big Canadian is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds but most impressively is connecting on 65% of his shots (anything over 50% is exceptional) loving the long hair and hairband.

 

[tikay]

just logged in to do a Gonzaga update see you beat me to it so here is a picture of one of our best players Kelly olynyk, the big Canadian is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds but most impressively is connecting on 65% of his shots (anything over 50% is exceptional) loving the long hair and hairband.

 

Thanks moony.

I was so excited, I could not resist a little update!

I will leave them to you in future.

For those not on @ 33/1, I'm afraid the boat has been well & truly missed - best price is now 14/1.


http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/ncaab/ncaa-championship/winner

[outragous76]

Darts

Andy Hamilton to beat Gary Anderson 2.78 on bf

Hamilton has been hitting doubles for fun, conversely anderson would struggle placing them in.

Although Anderson will outscore Hamilton, it won't be by much, and not hitting doubles will make it tough to break Hamilton who is scoring ok! Over a short format Hamilton looks like a good bet

I think Anderson also had a mini spike last week due to the home crowd affect

Max bet Hamilton

[horseplayer]

William Collum is an interesting scottish referee

The game between Galatasary and schalke tonight i will be watching anyway for obvious reasons, when i saw willie collum was in charge i perked up a bit more.

Here are the stats for the games involving the two sides this season in the champions league

4 5 7 2 6 4 gala

6 7 (1 sent off) 6 5 2 1 schalke

based on the above the mean cards per game in games between the two sides is 4.7 approx

Bet365 go evens over 4.5 cards tonight (were 11-10 yesterday) which i suggest a £20 bet (if fred can get on) for the purposes of this bet a yellow card is 1 and red card 2 points. The betfair market is very quiet but looks like it could settle at around 5-6 for over 4.5 there.

Now back onto the referee. William Collum is a bit of an all or nothing referee in european and international football (have ignored his scottish league stats for this) he averages 4.20 yellows per game and 0.38 red cards per game. So the line looks possibly a smidgen low based on everything so far.

If you just examine his stats in champions league games his average goes up to nearly 6 yellows per game (small sample size) he has also awarded 6 red cards in 13 champions league games.  I suggest he may just like the big occasion a little bit i will not go into his old firm history but suffice to say that backs the above up a little bit.

Unfourtantley the odds of a red card are only 3-1 tonight which can hardly be considered a bet anything above 5-1 i would have played at.

One final discovery is that he has awarded his first card very quickly in a lot of champions league games bet365 go evens first card of any kind upto and including the 30th minute this seems a fair bet suggest £30.

Personally i have bought the cards on the spreads tonight worse case scenario i see a small loss he could just go haywire though. The two teams are by no means dirty but the added factor of this being a probably tight game and being in the knockout stage all add some chances to more cards based on general stats.

Sorry for waffling

 

Brilliant analysis Horsey...thanks alot!

thank you ripple very kind as ever

[Doobs]

Tuilagi is starting for England against France at the weekend.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21532526

We have a Hector bet on him as leading try scorer. The cheese eating surrender monkeys have been living up to that billing so far this year, so the bet isn't dead yet.  The following players have one try each so far: Ashton, Twelvetrees, Parling and Care.  Nobody has more than one. 

We are fairly unlikely to score a drop goal.

[tikay]

Tuilagi is starting for England against France at the weekend.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/21532526

We have a Hector bet on him as leading try scorer. The cheese eating surrender monkeys have been living up to that billing so far this year, so the bet isn't dead yet.  The following players have one try each so far: Ashton, Twelvetrees, Parling and Care.  Nobody has more than one. 

We are fairly unlikely to score a drop goal.

Great news, we still have a chance. He is out to 20/1 or more now, 33/1 in places, hopefully that will not be the case after the weekend.

[tikay]

Darts

Andy Hamilton to beat Gary Anderson 2.78 on bf

Hamilton has been hitting doubles for fun, conversely anderson would struggle placing them in.

Although Anderson will outscore Hamilton, it won't be by much, and not hitting doubles will make it tough to break Hamilton who is scoring ok! Over a short format Hamilton looks like a good bet

I think Anderson also had a mini spike last week due to the home crowd affect

Max bet Hamilton

MAXIMUM?

We don't do many of those, Guy, & when we do, we need a case which shows the market has substantially misunderstood or mispriced the event.

Do we know anything the bookies do not, is there something about the price which proves it to be value?

Don't get me wrong - it may well be, I have no idea, but I can't stick £150 on a bet unless we can demonstrate a really good case.

We have other, very astute, DARTS experts here, let us wait & see what feedback we get from them.

I think we average one Maximum every 6 weeks or so, so they need to be a bit special.

PS - Thanks!

[outragous76]

Darts

Andy Hamilton to beat Gary Anderson 2.78 on bf

Hamilton has been hitting doubles for fun, conversely anderson would struggle placing them in.

Although Anderson will outscore Hamilton, it won't be by much, and not hitting doubles will make it tough to break Hamilton who is scoring ok! Over a short format Hamilton looks like a good bet

I think Anderson also had a mini spike last week due to the home crowd affect

Max bet Hamilton

MAXIMUM?

We don't do many of those, Guy, & when we do, we need a case which shows the market has substantially misunderstood or mispriced the event.

Do we know anything the bookies do not, is there something about the price which proves it to be value?

Don't get me wrong - it may well be, I have no idea, but I can't stick £150 on a bet unless we can demonstrate a really good case.

We have other, very astute, golf experts here, let us wait & see what feedback we get from them.

PS - Thanks!

oh, apologies, that is my not following the thread at all accruately - i thought max was £50!

erm £50? - happy for others to chip in!

[horseplayer]

i would offer the opinion that neither anderson or hamilton would be a good bet in the golf

[Tal]

^^^

Very good, outrageous. Very good!

Much better than the joke I was going with.

"Chip in"

[tikay]

Darts

Andy Hamilton to beat Gary Anderson 2.78 on bf

Hamilton has been hitting doubles for fun, conversely anderson would struggle placing them in.

Although Anderson will outscore Hamilton, it won't be by much, and not hitting doubles will make it tough to break Hamilton who is scoring ok! Over a short format Hamilton looks like a good bet

I think Anderson also had a mini spike last week due to the home crowd affect

Max bet Hamilton

MAXIMUM?

We don't do many of those, Guy, & when we do, we need a case which shows the market has substantially misunderstood or mispriced the event.

Do we know anything the bookies do not, is there something about the price which proves it to be value?

Don't get me wrong - it may well be, I have no idea, but I can't stick £150 on a bet unless we can demonstrate a really good case.

We have other, very astute, golf experts here, let us wait & see what feedback we get from them.

PS - Thanks!

oh, apologies, that is my not following the thread at all accruately - i thought max was £50!

erm £50? - happy for others to chip in!

The MAX for Fred is 5% of his notional roll, which is £3,000.

If the bet is worth a MAX, we would do it, but it needs some mathematical foundation first.

Let us see what the lads say, it'd be good to have a punt on tonight's Darts, Darts bets always bring the thread to life.

[tikay]

i would offer the opinion that neither anderson or hamilton would be a good bet in the golf

Bugger!

Come on Kucharrrrrrrr

[tikay]

^^^

Very good, outrageous. Very good!

Much better than the joke I was going with.

"Chip in"

I bet he never even realised....

[outragous76]

^^^

Very good, outrageous. Very good!

Much better than the joke I was going with.

"Chip in"

I bet he never even realised....

sigh! Wasnt going to push away the compliment, but now Ive been called out!

No, I had spotted the golf ref error, but "chip in" was sadly not intentional!