Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

On the chess thing £921 means that £460.5 has been bet, (when we match £10 at evens the nmber will go up by £20, they count it twice), so it's very low.

 Off the top of my head, prior to kick-off in a Monday Premier Match half-time betting has about £30,000, Time of 1st Goal odds about £12,000, 1st TD in the MNF NFL game £5,000.

 Even with a couple of weeks to go this one probably won't get to £3,000 so that means you can't be too optimistic about the prices you ask for. I guess the money at 2.4 and 2.0 that is waiting now will be someone on here. If you think 1.91 or even 1.83 are value and you would rather bet with Betfair who will definitely still be around in three weeks time, then you may want to go for that.

 I slower way of getting yourself a bigger price is to try and proportionally lay all the others. If you were just looking to get £100 at evens maybe putting a price to lose £100 on each player and fiddling around each day would be fun, in an event you clearly enjoy. You could skew things and lay Aronian to lose £200 and Kramnik to lose less if that is your view.

 I'd never heard of Marathon Bet but they seem to be connected to Panbet who regularly advertise in the Racing Post on Saturdays and who have been around for five or ten years. Obviously wouldn't want to trust them for six figures, but it looks Ok.

Thanks Neil.

I know I struggle with Betfair, as I do with the Internet - it is a generation thing - but I know from PM's & convos that I am not the only one who finds the whole Betfair thing a bit confusing sometimes, so Posts like that are really useful.

More would be appreciated from those who fully understand the in-depth workings.

A special friend of mine does what you suggested Tal do with the Chess, but he does it on another sport. He explains it to me, & I find the whole thing quite fascinating.

I also recall you saying, a few weeks ago, that you had "put up prices for every Market", I think it may have been Superbowl. What exactly does that mean, & what risks, the obvious ones apart, are you exposed to?

Another chap told me that he had laid a lot of bets on a particular market, as he was trying to keep his Commission Rate beneath a certain threshold. I ask him so many questions, I barely felt able to ask what all that meant.

[Karabiner]

I have a dart suggestion for the Honda.

Sang Moon-Bae is a Korean golfer who really caught my eye when he first came onto the scene last year in the USA but seemed to lose his way towards the end of the season missing cut after cut. He is starting to look as though he might be back on track again now and I have backed him @ 110 in the win market on betty.

Suggest Fred has £2.50EW Sang Moon-Bae @ 100/1 (PP, Satan orSB for best place terms).

Thanks Ralph.

The 100/1 with Six places paid from those three firms has all gone.

I can get 80/1, 6 places paid, or 100/1, 5 places paid.

Which do you think is best? (There's one for the Equity & Maths Geeks, too).

PS - I warched Mr BAE, or Mr Sang, whatever his name is, recently, & he has amazing game for one so young.

I'm sure he has a win in him.

Those guys must all be following Fred as those prices were there ten minutes ago when I posted.

I haven't got a clue about which is better although I suspect 100/1, you'll have speak to someone who is conversant with poisson I suspect.

Contrary to Adz btw I was so impressed with how well McDowell was swinging the club last week that I do fancy him and have dabbled accordingly @ 34.

[tikay]

I have a dart suggestion for the Honda.

Sang Moon-Bae is a Korean golfer who really caught my eye when he first came onto the scene last year in the USA but seemed to lose his way towards the end of the season missing cut after cut. He is starting to look as though he might be back on track again now and I have backed him @ 110 in the win market on betty.

Suggest Fred has £2.50EW Sang Moon-Bae @ 100/1 (PP, Satan orSB for best place terms).

Thanks Ralph.

The 100/1 with Six places paid from those three firms has all gone.

I can get 80/1, 6 places paid, or 100/1, 5 places paid.

Which do you think is best? (There's one for the Equity & Maths Geeks, too).

PS - I warched Mr BAE, or Mr Sang, whatever his name is, recently, & he has amazing game for one so young.

I'm sure he has a win in him.

Those guys must all be following Fred as those prices were there ten minutes ago when I posted.

I haven't got a clue about which is better although I suspect 100/1, you'll have speak to someone who is conversant with poisson I suspect.

Contrary to Adz btw I was so impressed with how well McDowell was swinging the club last week that I do fancy him and have dabbled accordingly @ 34.

It does not take much to move prices of 100/1 Ralph, & when a whole bunch of Freds get on at almost the same time (genuine blondes plus all the lurkers) it is bound to affect the price.

Anyway, we took the 100/1.

[Bazzaboy]

Darts tomorrow night premier league


James Wade Average vs Phil Taylor (Thursday 28th Feb Premier League)


The "line" is currently set at 94.5 for Wades ave. He has being throwing really well in the last few weeks, he really seems to be getting his confidence back and shaking his demons.  Combine that with the "Taylor effect" i think he could be more like up near 98 if he turns up (no reason to think he wont on recent form). He really has looked like he is approaching his best of late

He has played 3 games so far with the following averages:

1. 87.32 (won)
2. 91.54 (lost)
3. 100.59 (won)

(overall Ave 93.15)

Wade has frequently stepped up to the plate vs taylor in the Premier League. He will likely lose, but providing he throws well and Taylor precludes him from doubles when he has the darts I think we might see a good ave from wade.

Recommned £50 (i believe best odds are 5/6)

*note from Camel (and very valid), not sure if the formal draw for playing order has been made, but the later in proceedings Wade comes up, the worse our bet looks, as he likes a drink (not sure if any of his treatment is limiting his drinking at all - chaps?). I wouldnt let this stop people getting on

FWIW - this bet went up on Monday, but i took it down on advice - Camel, Bazza and snowball already confirmed they like the bet

I like that but I like overs on Taylor's ave even more.  You can get evens over 99.5, I don't think we will see the line that low for the rest of the PL.  He looked in great nick last week with a 107.33 ave and loves hitting 100+ averages in the PL group stages (13/14 last year, 11/14 in 2011).  

[tikay]

Darts tomorrow night premier league


James Wade Average vs Phil Taylor (Thursday 28th Feb Premier League)


The "line" is currently set at 94.5 for Wades ave. He has being throwing really well in the last few weeks, he really seems to be getting his confidence back and shaking his demons.  Combine that with the "Taylor effect" i think he could be more like up near 98 if he turns up (no reason to think he wont on recent form). He really has looked like he is approaching his best of late

He has played 3 games so far with the following averages:

1. 87.32 (won)
2. 91.54 (lost)
3. 100.59 (won)

(overall Ave 93.15)

Wade has frequently stepped up to the plate vs taylor in the Premier League. He will likely lose, but providing he throws well and Taylor precludes him from doubles when he has the darts I think we might see a good ave from wade.

Recommned £50 (i believe best odds are 5/6)

*note from Camel (and very valid), not sure if the formal draw for playing order has been made, but the later in proceedings Wade comes up, the worse our bet looks, as he likes a drink (not sure if any of his treatment is limiting his drinking at all - chaps?). I wouldnt let this stop people getting on

FWIW - this bet went up on Monday, but i took it down on advice - Camel, Bazza and snowball already confirmed they like the bet

I like that but I like overs on Taylor's ave even more.  You can get evens over 99.5, I don't think we will see the line that low for the rest of the PL.  He looked in great nick last week with a 107.33 ave and loves hitting 100+ averages in the PL group stages (13/14 last year, 11/14 in 2011). 

Wowzer, based on that, we have a bet, thanks Bazza.

It was 5/6 over 100.5 with BetVictor, & Evens over 99/5 BoyleSports, so it chose itself. I can't see that lasting long.

We might even both our bets home......

We have £50 @ Evens, Boylesports, Taylor v Wade, Taylor 3 dart average OVER 99.5.

ON



Bet ref: 73/71 Over 99.5 @ EVS
Wade v Taylor
Phil Taylor 3 Dart Average
Total stake £50.00
Estimated return £100.00
Full stake £50.00
Full estimated return £100.00

[TightEnd]

http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2013/02/27/the-implications-of-eastleigh-crunchtime-for-cameron-and-clegg-as-miliband-escapes-scrutiny

"With the background of the Chris Huhne/Vicky Pryce court case and the media scrum over Lord Rennard, and only a 4,000 majority to overcome. the Tories should be walking this by-election. But they’re not. Question marks over the candidate and the rise of UKIP have both influenced a stalling of the Tory campaign, with the latter proving particularly significant..................."

[tikay]

Current odds?

Lid Dems, 1/3

Tories 9/2

UKIP 6/1.

Go figure.

[redsimon]

Current odds?

Lid Dems, 1/3

Tories 9/2

UKIP 6/1.

Go figure.

Has Fred got a bet on UKIP?

[TightEnd]

Yes a tenner at 12-1

Seen worse bets

[Tal]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100204407/eastleigh-by-election-sorry-but-ukip-arent-going-to-win/

This is addictive

[TightEnd]

Probably quite a cheap lesson to avoid political betting, our Eastleigh experience

trying to work out what matters to a local voter in a by-election = tricky source of EV

[BigAdz]

Would like to chuck a couple of Darts at the Tswane Open

Last week while the world focused on the matchplay, our previous selection Jaco Van Zyl was winning a Pro Am event, which got little coverage, so he is bang in form.

The field this week is the strongest for a little while and I fancy he may be a false favourite, having bottled it when faced with any sort of challenge by ranking pros. However he is a quick starter on a roll.

The course is considered a bit of a beast length wise, but this is offset somewhat by being at altitude.

For this reason I am going to recommend an old sparring partner from our Junior days(our golfing careers took very different directions!) David Howell.

He has yet to miss a cut for ages and although one of the shortest on tour, he ranks highly compared to this field regards most other stats(shots per round/putting/saves), and I think the fact the course is long is making him a bit of a false price. After a few years in the wilderness, it is also fairly common knowledge round here he is practising very hard to make that final breakthrough back to the bigger league. Seven/Eight years ago he would have been clear fav for this.

Recommend £10 ew David Howell  @40-1 Coral

Banzai £5 Jaco van Zyl First Round Leader @24s on Betty(no Liquidity) 20s VCbet

[tikay]

Thanks Adzy.

Both bets safely on, will confirm details later. Remind me if I forget, please.

[outragous76]

Darts Banzai/trifecta!

Im happy to be told to "gtfo you punter this is a serious betting thread"..................................... however..................

9 dart finish

Im a firm believer that 9 darters get thrown when 2 players are keeping the game flowing, scoring hard and generating momentum in the game.

This week as we are betting on Taylor and Wade both scoring well, it got me thinking.............. (Taylor 34s Wade 81s, either 41s)

But then looking at the line up we have an almost perfect storm for the 9 darter, not only Wade vs taylor, but Barney vs Whitlock on the same card   at a price of 10/1 a 9 darter on the night (you always have a shot with Anderson and MVG in there too [and maybe Adey if he remembers to bring his darts).

So for 10/1 you have 2 really good games and 3 covers

9 darters lifetime

Taylor 14
Wade 4
Barney 9
Whitlock 6 (since 2010 - really good shot)

MVG 5 (4 in 2 years)
Lewis 4
Anderson 2


I mean its a punt I suppose, but it seems like as good a week as any to try it out for size?

A tumultuous tenner @ 10/1?

[vegaslover]

Would like to chuck a couple of Darts at the Tswane Open

Last week while the world focused on the matchplay, our previous selection Jaco Van Zyl was winning a Pro Am event, which got little coverage, so he is bang in form.

The field this week is the strongest for a little while and I fancy he may be a false favourite, having bottled it when faced with any sort of challenge by ranking pros. However he is a quick starter on a roll.

The course is considered a bit of a beast length wise, but this is offset somewhat by being at altitude.

For this reason I am going to recommend an old sparring partner from our Junior days(our golfing careers took very different directions!) David Howell.

He has yet to miss a cut for ages and although one of the shortest on tour, he ranks highly compared to this field regards most other stats(shots per round/putting/saves), and I think the fact the course is long is making him a bit of a false price. After a few years in the wilderness, it is also fairly common knowledge round here he is practising very hard to make that final breakthrough back to the bigger league. Seven/Eight years ago he would have been clear fav for this.

Recommend £10 ew David Howell  @40-1 Coral

Banzai £5 Jaco van Zyl First Round Leader @24s on Betty(no Liquidity) 20s VCbet

I like the Howell bet and have had some at 40s too.
Following  long long drawn out injury problems he is steadily climbing the rankings and I believe he is due a decent run. Euro tour weaker this year too atm with most of the better players still in the states