Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Why are Watford odds-against at Wolves tonight?

We know the form and quality of both. If Wolves come on, Watford will crush them on the break as they do to a lot of teams away from home. If they sit back they can't win anyway

Coral 13/10 Watford looks a standout price to me

Having missed a couple of Watford versus lower teams recommendations on this thread, I think this game is a must.

If that is a Recommend, how much are you suggesting, Rich?

FWIW (bugger all) I have made this bet off-thread already, I got on at 11/8 earlier in the week.

cant work this game out at all

on everything that is out there 13-10 is to big what are we missing?

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

After a lovely righteous kip my thoughts have been turned to tonight's rugby league between St Helens and Leeds. My team are Leeds and they are nowhere near as good as they used to be when McGuire, Burrow and Sinfield were in their prime. They can however dog it out when it comes to the play offs but a season long period of excellence is beyond their old legs.

After the exertions of the World challenge match last week I expect a fall off in performance for a month or so now and going to St Helens is one of the toughest tasks around. Leeds should not get beaten by many points by average sides. However against the good sides away from home Leeds are vulnerable to a tonking or two. These were the scores last year away to the big boys in the league :

Wigan 20 Leeds 6
St Helens 40 Leeds 6
Warrington 37 Leeds 18

They also lost heavily away to some smaller clubs , to Huddersfield by 24 points, Wakefield by 20 points, and Hull by 14.

If you just based the odds on last season, when Leeds became grand champions again, then Leeds to lose by 13 or more points should certainly be odds on. We can however get 9/4 which seems good enough for me.

Suggest St Helens to win by 13 or more points £25 @ 9/4 Ladbrokes.

If this one comes off Mr T then I shall officially forgive myself for not posting the 6-1 winner last Sunday.

And as an aside Mr T I also think that the odds makers are monitoring this thread. Ryan Jones suddenly appearing in the betting for the Lions captaincy was no coincidence. I do however think that we should look on it as a compliment and not think of them as incompetent lazy arses who can't do their job properly.

[tikay]

Why are Watford odds-against at Wolves tonight?

We know the form and quality of both. If Wolves come on, Watford will crush them on the break as they do to a lot of teams away from home. If they sit back they can't win anyway

Coral 13/10 Watford looks a standout price to me

Having missed a couple of Watford versus lower teams recommendations on this thread, I think this game is a must.

If that is a Recommend, how much are you suggesting, Rich?

FWIW (bugger all) I have made this bet off-thread already, I got on at 11/8 earlier in the week.

I noted I had missed the price a bit.

Did my usual "what price should this be?" came up with Evens at worst, and then looked at Oddschecker.....

£40 or so? If I had seen 11/8, I'd be pretty gung ho about it

Thanks Rich. This is one of those "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is" affairs......

Best price now seems to be 5/4, but we are on.

We have £40 @ 5/4, WmHill, Watford to beat Wolves tonight.

ON

01 Mar 2013 - Wolves v Watford - Match Betting

Watford @ 5/4

Stake : £40.00
Estimated Returns : £90.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000278/F

[tikay]

Why are Watford odds-against at Wolves tonight?

We know the form and quality of both. If Wolves come on, Watford will crush them on the break as they do to a lot of teams away from home. If they sit back they can't win anyway

Coral 13/10 Watford looks a standout price to me

Having missed a couple of Watford versus lower teams recommendations on this thread, I think this game is a must.

If that is a Recommend, how much are you suggesting, Rich?

FWIW (bugger all) I have made this bet off-thread already, I got on at 11/8 earlier in the week.

cant work this game out at all

on everything that is out there 13-10 is to big what are we missing?

We must be missing something!

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

After a lovely righteous kip my thoughts have been turned to tonight's rugby league between St Helens and Leeds. My team are Leeds and they are nowhere near as good as they used to be when McGuire, Burrow and Sinfield were in their prime. They can however dog it out when it comes to the play offs but a season long period of excellence is beyond their old legs.

After the exertions of the World challenge match last week I expect a fall off in performance for a month or so now and going to St Helens is one of the toughest tasks around. Leeds should not get beaten by many points by average sides. However against the good sides away from home Leeds are vulnerable to a tonking or two. These were the scores last year away to the big boys in the league :

Wigan 20 Leeds 6
St Helens 40 Leeds 6
Warrington 37 Leeds 18

They also lost heavily away to some smaller clubs , to Huddersfield by 24 points, Wakefield by 20 points, and Hull by 14.

If you just based the odds on last season, when Leeds became grand champions again, then Leeds to lose by 13 or more points should certainly be odds on. We can however get 9/4 which seems good enough for me.

Suggest St Helens to win by 13 or more points £25 @ 9/4 Ladbrokes.

If this one comes off Mr T then I shall officially forgive myself for not posting the 6-1 winner last Sunday.

And as an aside Mr T I also think that the odds makers are monitoring this thread. Ryan Jones suddenly appearing in the betting for the Lions captaincy was no coincidence. I do however think that we should look on it as a compliment and not think of them as incompetent lazy arses who can't do their job properly.

Morning hector, & thank you.

You do come up with some quirky stuff, & this one is SCARY, Leeds to lose by 13 or more. But, in hector we trust.....

Lovely background research, too. I would never have thought to even consider this bet ordinarily.

We have £25 @ 9/4, Ladbrokes, St Helens to win by 13+. For clarification, is that 13 OR more, or 14?

ON

St. Helens v Leeds Rhinos
Super League
2013-03-01 20:00:00
 
Market: Alternative Winning Margin 

Selection: St. Helens 13+ @ 9/4 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000268
 
Placed at: 10:51 01/03/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £25.00
 
Number of lines: 1
 
Stake: £25.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £25.00
 
 £81.25
 
 

[hector62]

It is by more than 12 points in simple terms.

[tikay]

It is by more than 12 points in simple terms.

Ta.

"simple terms" is what some of us, notably me, need......

[aaron1867]

I doubt bookies are in the least bit bothered about Fred, really.

I think as Tikay highlighted what us punters bet is peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

[AlunB]

And as an aside Mr T I also think that the odds makers are monitoring this thread. Ryan Jones suddenly appearing in the betting for the Lions captaincy was no coincidence. I do however think that we should look on it as a compliment and not think of them as incompetent lazy arses who can't do their job properly.

This is a level I presume?

[millidonk]

What was that? Everyone knows all the best punting threads have their own logo.

[MereNovice]

February 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 105
Amount wagered: £2,658.36
Profit/loss: £801.71
ROI: 30.16%

Number of "sports" bet on: 12
Most popular:  Football (25), Horses (23), Rugby Union (17).
Most profitable: Football (£340.55),  Horses (£292.55),NFL (£290.00)
Least profitable: Rugby Union (-£-72.06), Misc. (-£-61.00).

Number of tipsters: 28 including 4 new tipsters.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 1,170
Amount wagered: £40,877.89
Profit/loss: £1,306.26
ROI: 3.20%

Number of "sports" bet on: 27
Most popular:  Football (385), Golf (106), Horses(101), Cricket(98).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport   Total   Profit  Amt Bet   ROI   No.
Football   773.94   13,080.98   5.92   385
NFL   728.75   2,885.00   25.26   74
RL   551.36   715.00   77.11   31
...
Tennis   -276.18   1,056.35   -26.14   27
Formula1   -288.00   405.00   -71.11   14
Basketball   -963.89   2,473.33   -38.97   52


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 105


Number of different bookies/exchanges: 20

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Bookie   Total   Profit  Amt Bet   ROI   No.
Ladbrokes   585.61   4,897.00   11.96   149
Betfair   450.08   4,455.75   10.10   121
BoyleSports   442.75   1,970.25   22.47   50
...
BetFred   -257.00   1,920.50   -13.38   66
Bwin   -266.30   944.00   -28.21   26
StanJames   -331.95   2,243.20   -14.80   52


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7



Apologies for moving the Bingham snooker bet prematurely to the March sheet.

[tikay]

What was that? Everyone knows all the best punting threads have their own logo.

Behave Milli.

Our logo is PROFIT

[Tal]

What was that? Everyone knows all the best punting threads have their own logo.

Behave Milli.

Our logo is PROFIT

Boooooooom

Or words to that effect

[millidonk]

What was that? Everyone knows all the best punting threads have their own logo.

Behave Milli.

Our logo is PROFIT

pffft. £800. That's half a day's work for us lot.

[youthnkzR]

Think John Higgins may be a bet vs Ding in the next. Priced up fairly close which would seem fair based on their records vs each other but saying that having watched ding play vs both Fu and Holt, he seems to be giving his opponents a fair few chances (although he is making some fantastic breaks in the process). Both the previous opponents have failed to take advantage of Dings mis-steps however I wouldn't expect Higgins to, who has been playing fantastically as of late - most recently with a 5-0 victory over Stuart Bingham!

Would recommend £30 Higgins @ 10/11 with corals.