Tips for Tikay

[edgascoigne]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

[edgascoigne]

15/8 VC now gone but if you can get a sausage on with PP they remain 15/8...

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 1020, Thursday March 7th


No completed bets again yesterday, for the 3rd day on the bounce I think. It pleases me that we don't bet for the sake of it. In the long term, we need to do a lot more bets, whilst maintaining the quest for value, but betting for the sake of it will land us in Carey Street.

We continue to add to our Cheltenham Portfolio on a daily basis, & the amount we have at risk is a bit scary. If we continue to take all the (genuine) value offers, we can expect to punt another £200+ before Cheltenham even starts. We will have over £500 invested before it begins, & doubtless further bets each day during the Festival, so an overall liability of around £1,000 may accrue. Our notional roll is £3,000 (net of profits & ante-post bets), so £1,000 is quite a chunk of that, but it is spread around quite nicely, with no single liability over £100. Awkward spot really. I've endured entire Cheltenham's without a single winner, but as long as we get value, I guess we have to do it, & hope we run good.

Elsewhere, the Cricket in New Zealand got off to a weird start. Trott is leading batter so far, so that is good, & in the Bowling, no wickets have yet been taken, so we are where we started.

We placed a Tennis bet, too.

Today sees the Cadillac WGC golf thing start, which is a short-field event. Fred currently has no interest. It begins just after midday today, so if we plan to have an interest, it needs to be soon.

Spurs play tonight, too.

EDIT - Premier League Darts are on tonight, too.

[The Camel]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

[tikay]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

[horseplayer]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

camel beat me to this



refunded as a free bet so you will need to keep an eye on the expiry of that free bet

[tikay]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

Thanks Keith.

Done.

Really weird this, the Bookies are almost forcing us to bet, & money is being sucked out of our pockets at quite a rate, but in every case, it seems we have no choice, as the value is there.

Based on yesterday's ruling, this bet will, for the sake of consistency, have to be owned by Fred, but thank you anyway.

We have £50 @ 6/4, BetVictor, My Tent or Yours, Supreme Novices, doewn to FRED.

ON

Total possible returns 125.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Cheltenham Ante Post 2013 Supreme Novices
My Tent Or Yours
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  6/4
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  125.00

[edgascoigne]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

[tikay]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

camel beat me to this



refunded as a free bet so you will need to keep an eye on the expiry of that free bet

Thanks horsey.

For those thinking of getting on, the T & C's are below.

I really MUST remember this next week, if MTOY gets turned over, can someone please remind me? I'm not sure how I can keep records to remind me of all this stuff.


1.Offer applies to win single bets or each-way single bets struck on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle race winner market after the 5-day entry stage.

2.All refunds will be calculated by using your total NET losses in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle race winner market only, taking into account your win singles and each-way single bets only. An each-way bet where a selection is placed will return some winnings and we will only refund net losses. Eg: Stake £50, Returns including stake £35 =Free £15 bet.
3.Refund is in the form of Promo Cash and this Promo Cash will expire when Cheltenham ends on March 15th. Please allow 24 hours for promo cash to be credited though we will work to have all free bets credited on Tuesday March 12th during racing hours
4.The maximum total Promo Cash refund payable to any one person or household is £50 or currency equivalent.
5.Standard promo cash rules apply.
6.Multiple bets will not count. All Extra Market bets and all Tote bets are also excluded.
7.Free Bet refund must be used to place a bet or bets on horse racing markets between March 12 and 15th. Any Free Bets placed on any other events will be declared void.
8.Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.
9.Any profit that exceeds your stake from a winning bet placed with Promo Cash will be returned to your real account balance. The Promo Cash stake itself will not be returned.
10.Bets placed using this Promo Cash reward will not count towards any wagering requirements for the new account opening offer or any other offer on the BetVictor.com website.
11.Real money bets only will count. Promo cash bets will not qualify for a refund.
12.Void bets do not count.
13.Offer applies to customers in The UK, Ireland, Australia, Greece and Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Lichtenstein and Luxembourg only.
14.Offer applies to internet, telephone and mobile bets only.
15.BetVictor reserves the right to amend or withdraw this offer at any point and without notification.
16.Our decision in all matters relating to this offer is final and binding.
17.This offer is governed by the specific rules above and by the General Rules of the BetVictor.com site.

[tikay]

Bugger. Have we fallen foul of T & C rule 8?

8) Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

[tikay]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

[The Camel]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

Thanks Keith.

Done.

Really weird this, the Bookies are almost forcing us to bet, & money is being sucked out of our pockets at quite a rate, but in every case, it seems we have no choice, as the value is there.

Based on yesterday's ruling, this bet will, for the sake of consistency, have to be owned by Fred, but thank you anyway.

We have £50 @ 6/4, BetVictor, My Tent or Yours, Supreme Novices, doewn to FRED.

ON

Total possible returns 125.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Cheltenham Ante Post 2013 Supreme Novices
My Tent Or Yours
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  6/4
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  125.00

Just read the small print.

The money is returned as a Free bet which must be placed on horse racing on the four days the Festival is on.

Remember not to let free bet expire!

[edgascoigne]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

I would wait to place the lay bets until the back bets are matched, then execute as before

If the market shortens and the back bets don't get matched then we'll execute the same plan as before but to amended staking reflecting we would have only £30 on rather than £80.

[tikay]

Bet £50 on the Supreme Novices with VC and if it loses they will refund the bet.

Odds are very skinny (obv) but suggest 50 win on My Tent or Yours at 6/4

Thanks Keith.

Done.

Really weird this, the Bookies are almost forcing us to bet, & money is being sucked out of our pockets at quite a rate, but in every case, it seems we have no choice, as the value is there.

Based on yesterday's ruling, this bet will, for the sake of consistency, have to be owned by Fred, but thank you anyway.

We have £50 @ 6/4, BetVictor, My Tent or Yours, Supreme Novices, doewn to FRED.

ON

Total possible returns 125.00

Bet Receipt Single Selections
Cheltenham Ante Post 2013 Supreme Novices
My Tent Or Yours
(Horse Racing Outright)
Odds:  6/4
Stake:  50.00
Possible Return:  125.00

Just read the small print.

The money is returned as a Free bet which must be placed on horse racing on the four days the Festival is on.

Remember not to let free bet expire!

I will try not to. I need a PA these days.

But have we fallen foul of this?

8) Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

[tikay]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

I would wait to place the lay bets until the back bets are matched, then execute as before

If the market shortens and the back bets don't get matched then we'll execute the same plan as before but to amended staking reflecting we would have only £30 on rather than £80.

OK.

My head is starting to hurt, this is worse than reading one of those bloody Stars Hand Histories.

The £30 @ PP is on, I'll move to Stage 27 now. Be right back.....