Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

I would wait to place the lay bets until the back bets are matched, then execute as before

If the market shortens and the back bets don't get matched then we'll execute the same plan as before but to amended staking reflecting we would have only £30 on rather than £80.

Sheesh. My head hurts.

Part 1 is complete now. This is all owned by Ed Gascoigne.

We still have to do the Lay parts though. I'll wait until - if or when - the Back bets are matched first though.

We have.....

£30 @ 15/8, Paddy Power, Port Alexandre to win the Neptune Novices Hurdle.

£25 @ 2.86, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

£25 @ 2.88, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

ON

CHELTENHAM Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
13-03-2013 14:05
Win or E/W
Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
Your Bets
Win
Single: Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential returns: £86.25
No: O/23146337/0000272
Total stake: £30.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £30.00

______

GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645441918   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.88   25.00       
 

____

    GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645436415   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.86   25.00

Lovely stuff. It'll be well worth the hassle if the market moves as I anticipate and Fred locks in a nice position

Good stuff, but PLEASE keeep on top of it & nudge me when the time is right.

[edgascoigne]

Fear not Teeks, I'm on it.

I've made a similar play myself for a good few quid so will ensure you stay abreast of proceedings

[mondatoo]

Your VC bet is fine tikay, it applies to all bets after noon UK time on the 6th March

Thanks Ray.

That makes no sense, as it clearly clashes with T & C # 8, (see below) but as they are pushing it so hard today, as Camel notes, if we HAVE gone on too early, Mr Chandler has a world of pain coming his way from thousands who have been duped.



Offer does not apply to Ante Post bets on the Supreme Novices Hurdle placed before the 5-day entry stage.

I asked on live help.

Are you sure they understood you?

You know you try to blidey help someone and that's the thanks I get

PS On obv, gl us.

[Karabiner]

Mail De Bievre has been supplemented for the Champion Chase

[tikay]

Afternoon TK

What do people think of mickleson at 28s? Surely too big for lefty who is a winner already this season..

I like Rory at 25s too. World number 1, massive price, his game could come back at anytime. It happened last year, he missed a few cuts then chucked in a win out of nowhere at 20s+

I'd like to recommend 10ew on both. Pending any comments.

Cheers

Thanks Majorx2.

There have been some comments already.

Me?

Well I back a fair bit of golf myself, & I take good advice from the experts, though I do so privately.

I sought views for this week, & as to Mickelson, the general view was that the course does not set up ideally for him, it favours the draw, which he is OK with, but not especially so. He has also had a 2 week break, doing domestic duties, which could work either way - he'll either be "fresh" or "rusty".

As to McIllroy, what can we say? Clearly the best golfer in the world, & he has not stopped improving yet, he has a great big Timeform P next to his name, but he might just get a squiggle soon, too. I just don't know, nor does anyone else, how he will perform this week. Forget last week & he'd be 12/1, now he is 25/1. I really don't know what to think, to be honest, but I'm definitely not "confident" he will return to form this week. The price, all things considered, is probably somewhere near correct. He draws the ball well though, which is, I gather, a big advantage here.

I'm inclined to include Kuchar, Watney, & a few Banzais in my own basket.  I may also Lay Mickelson, Kaymer & Howell. Not because I am wise & clever, but because I took good advice. I hope.

[The Camel]

Afternoon TK

What do people think of mickleson at 28s? Surely too big for lefty who is a winner already this season..

I like Rory at 25s too. World number 1, massive price, his game could come back at anytime. It happened last year, he missed a few cuts then chucked in a win out of nowhere at 20s+

I'd like to recommend 10ew on both. Pending any comments.

Cheers

Thanks Majorx2.

There have been some comments already.

Me?

Well I back a fair bit of golf myself, & I take good advice from the experts, though I do so privately.

I sought views for this week, & as to Mickelson, the general view was that the course does not set up ideally for him, it favours the draw, which he is OK with, but not especially so. He has also had a 2 week break, doing domestic duties, which could work either way - he'll either be "fresh" or "rusty".

As to McIllroy, what can we say? Clearly the best golfer in the world, & he has not stopped improving yet, he has a great big Timeform P next to his name, but he might just get a squiggle soon, too. I just don't know, nor does anyone else, how he will perform this week. Forget last week & he'd be 12/1, now he is 25/1. I really don't know what to think, to be honest, but I'm definitely not "confident" he will return to form this week. The price, all things considered, is probably somewhere near correct. He draws the ball well though, which is, I gather, a big advantage here.

I'm inclined to include Kuchar, Watney, & a few Banzais in my own basket.  I may also Lay Mickelson, Kaymer & Howell. Not because I am wise & clever, but because I took good advice. I hope.

Who would have thought 12 months ago the famous ice cream Tikay could make a post like that?

Fantastic stuff.

I think our work here is done.

[tikay]

Ha!

I am only interpreting the advice I was given.

I try to pick my own selections, which I did, & sent them to my man, "what do you think?".....

His reply was a diplomatic masterpiece, but included "more chance of Walsall being relegated this season".

More seriously, there is a TON of specialist golf info sites if you look for them, & if you read them all, absorb & interpret, you get a good balanced view as to value. I spent 4 hours researching this one event, & I do so every week, though most of my golf beting success has been down to a special friend who helps me.

I did the same thing with Football Sub-Markets, which is how my Stan James account got closed.  Not before I had made a few thousand betting obscure stuff which was incorrectly priced though. Honestly, for those prepared to work at it, there ARE value spots to be found.

"I fancy Man U tonight" or whatever is never gonna cut the mustard.

I would have taken Majorx2's bet if I had not already made my mind up, & been advised, to be honest. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing....

I'll be delighted for Majorx2 if Lefty or Rory win though.

[Karabiner]

Re. McIlroy:

I need to see some positive evidence that he has acclimatised his game to the new clubs, especially the wedges and the putter which have been dire thus far, before I even consider betting on him.

I wouldn't be betting him with counterfeit at present so he'll probably win on the bridle.

[tikay]

Re. McIlroy:

I need to see some positive evidence that he has acclimatised his game to the new clubs, especially the wedges and the putter which have been dire thus far, before I even consider betting on him.

I wouldn't be betting him with counterfeit at present so he'll probably win on the bridle.

To these guys, they notice half an ounce of weight or balance difference, & it messes with them to a great degree I think. Nicklaus was discussing it, & he said he used different clubs for almost every Event, but the game has moved on so much now, & these guys are disappointed if they don't get any approach within one putt range.

Like you, I used to play a lot of snooker, & I simply could not play with any cue except my own. Eventually my cue got stolen, & I just had to quit the game.

I hope Rory soon recovers, I really do, I caught him right twice last year, & would like to back him again. He'll either be spot on this weekend, or miles off the pace. We shall see.

[The Camel]

Ha!

I am only interpreting the advice I was given.

I try to pick my own selections, which I did, & sent them to my man, "what do you think?".....

His reply was a diplomatic masterpiece, but included "more chance of Walsall being relegated this season".

More seriously, there is a TON of specialist golf info sites if you look for them, & if you read them all, absorb & interpret, you get a good balanced view as to value. I spent 4 hours researching this one event, & I do so every week, though most of my golf beting success has been down to a special friend who helps me.

I did the same thing with Football Sub-Markets, which is how my Stan James account got closed.  Not before I had made a few thousand betting obscure stuff which was incorrectly priced though. Honestly, for those prepared to work at it, there ARE value spots to be found.

"I fancy Man U tonight" or whatever is never gonna cut the mustard.

I would have taken Majorx2's bet if I had not already made my mind up, & been advised, to be honest. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing....

I'll be delighted for Majorx2 if Lefty or Rory win though.

That's the thing though.

In your ice cream days, I suspect you would have looked at the list of runners and picked out a couple of players you liked at fancy prices and slapped your wager down.

Now it's all done with research, consultation and thought.

I'll doubt I'll ever be able to analise a poker hand like Sam Grafton or pleno and I doubt you'll ever be as shrewd a sports bettor as adnmdv.

But hey, as long we nick a few quid and have a good time doing it, it's not so bad, is it?

[AndrewT]

As a non-golfer, how big a deal is the new clubs?

Is it the clubs themselves, a materiel difference from what he's used to before (bearing in mind he can have them set up however he wants)? Or is it psychological - simply the knowledge that they're different messing with his head?

[tikay]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

[DungBeetle]

Gents

Just rummaging around the Championship coupon on Betfair and one price stood out for me.  I went to the Watford v Sheff Wed game in midweek and was impressed with the visitors in defeat.  It is no exaggeration so say it could have been 3-0 Weds at half time, before the introduction of Chalobah and Forestieri and a formation change completed changed the game.  

I see the following prices for the home promotion chasers on Sat:

Watford 1.9 v Blackpool
Palace 1.9 v Leeds
Leicester 1.66 v Sheff Weds.

I think Leicester are too short.  I think Watford and Palace are significantly more likely to bank 3 points on Saturday than the Foxes, given the strength of all 6 squads and current form.

I'm sure Tighty will have a view on whether he agrees, but I recommend LAYING Leicester for £50ish so £30 risked to win £50.  Just feels like anyone backing the home team at 1.66 is making a really bad bet.

[Karabiner]

As a non-golfer, how big a deal is the new clubs?

Is it the clubs themselves, a materiel difference from what he's used to before (bearing in mind he can have them set up however he wants)? Or is it psychological - simply the knowledge that they're different messing with his head?

As far as adjusting to the driver and mid/long irons it should not be much of a problem as the techy guys can set them up to be almost identical although the different shafts(if indeed they are different) could give him a slightly altered feel.

It's the short-game clubs(wedges) which are the problem for all of those touch shots around the green , and from 100yards in. They will react differently imparting a different amount of spin than he is used to and it is easy to lose confidence.

The putter though is huge. It took me, a lowly 8-handicapper(thin I know) six months to fully adapt to my new putter which I put in my bag just over a year ago.

[The Camel]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?