Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Whether Fred is ready to dip his toe into the murky world of 'trading', I'm not sure. But, if he has the appetite, may I recommend backing Pont Alexandre for the Neptune at 15/8 with VC with a view to trading out of the position on the exchange when the Irish money (inevitably, imo) pours on in the couple of days before the race?

I envisage one of two things happening after the first day:

1. The Irish have got the lot, and will wish to play up their winnings on the horse that Ruby is speaking of in such revered tones.

2. The Irish have done their conkers (relatively), and will be looking for a bet to get them out of trouble.

In short, whether Pont Alexandre is value at 15/8 I am not sure. What I am 'sure' (read, "confident enough to make it a recommend") of however is that the price will contract come race time.

Recommend: £80 Pont Alexandre @ 15/8 VC. Then put up a series of lay orders on the machine: £20 @ 2.64, £20 @ 2.54, £20 @ 2.44, £20 @ 2.34 (or similar).

This should, if all goes to plan, net Fred a nice free bet on the 5/4 jolly to win c£30.

I've been experimenting with Trading (on my own account) so yes, I'd like to try this one.

Problem 1 - PP only allowed me £30 (just placed the bet, details shortly), so I could reduce the Lay bets in proportion, OR, I could have another £50 elsewhere at 7/4, then do the lays for a slightly smaller profit.

What would you advise - stick to £30 @ 15/8, or take the rest at 7/4, in each case, adjusting the Lays accordingly?

Hmm, the thing is 7/4 is really quite a bit shorter than 15/8. Because of the quirks of the traditional fixed odds pricing ladder there are a few 'leaps' - ie. 2.875 --> 2.75.

I would, as an alternative, recommend putting up an order to back Pont Alexandre for the remaining £50 on Betfair split evenly between 2.86 and 2.88. The benefits of this over taking the 7/4 are (a) you get matched at a better price and (b) you don't take such an implied commission hit as your positions net each other off.

Thanks.

Sorry to be a pain, but......

If we do as suggested (back £25 each on Betty at 2.86 & 2.88), do we still execute the lays exactly as you originally suggested?

I do feel rather silly asking all these dumb questions, so you'll have to excuse my naivete.

I would wait to place the lay bets until the back bets are matched, then execute as before

If the market shortens and the back bets don't get matched then we'll execute the same plan as before but to amended staking reflecting we would have only £30 on rather than £80.

Sheesh. My head hurts.

Part 1 is complete now. This is all owned by Ed Gascoigne.

We still have to do the Lay parts though. I'll wait until - if or when - the Back bets are matched first though.

We have.....

£30 @ 15/8, Paddy Power, Port Alexandre to win the Neptune Novices Hurdle.

£25 @ 2.86, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

£25 @ 2.88, Betfair, Ditto. Currently UNMATCHED.

ON

CHELTENHAM Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle
13-03-2013 14:05
Win or E/W
Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
Your Bets
Win
Single: Pont Alexandre @ 15/8
1 line at £30.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £30.00
Potential returns: £86.25
No: O/23146337/0000272
Total stake: £30.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £30.00

______

GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645441918   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.88   25.00       
 

____

    GB / Chelt 13th Mar / Neptune Nov Hrd
Pont Alexandre 
Back   25645436415   07-Mar-13
11:32    C   2.86   25.00

The two x £25 Bets with Betfair, at 2.86 & 2.88, are both MATCHED now.

Phase 2 awaits......

[Doobs]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

I think you should at least hang around until the fred-niffle-bash in October Keith.

Oh don't worry, I won't be missing THAT weekend unless I'm six feet under.

Just I've got quite a few things going on atm, and devoting time to helping Fred seems like a bit of a waste of time, when Fred is perfectly shrewd enough to look after itself.

But Keith.

The Old Fella aint getting any younger. Lets be honest, we all chuckle at the misclicks, but we all wonder if THAT was THE misclick, dont we.......?

This Fred needs a Tikay in waiting. We need a man that can store water for weeks at a time, for when the going gets rough.

CAMEL, This Fred needs YOU!

Parents need to know when it is safe to let their childen make their own way in the World.  Camel realises the time has come for him to losten those strings and allow Tikay his independence.  I think he's going to be fine....




...unless he goes anywhere near Betfair obviously

[The Camel]

Probably should have waited until after next week - that was the plan.

But that post from Tikay made me really proud actually, and I felt it was the perfect moment.

If I see something which has Fred has missed at Cheltenham I will make one final encore

[tikay]

I hesitate a bit, but here goes. Perhaps you'll need Hector's view before proceeding, as the 6N hasn't been helpful to the thread so far

Two weeks ago, France were in with a shout against England for 55 minutes in the Six Nations

Two things happened

- English bench very strong, and much fitter team than the French in the last quarter
- French coach substituted off various players who were keeping it close notably Parra, Trinh Duc and Mas

This weekend Ireland v France

France team announced this morning, includes Michalak at Fly Half, the man who has no business being picked at fly Half

Brian Moore, the trenchant commentator said this morning that it was an act of "coaching suicide" to pick Michalak

Ireland have plenty to prove. They have lost against England, and really underperformed in that game. They lost against Scotland and it was a really strange one to lose with over 70% territory and possession

They have Healy and McCarthy back up front, so it should be minimum parity up there

The weather forecast for Dublin on Saturday is wettish

"Daytime maximum temperatures to 9°C and wind speed of 4 meters per second from East with wind gust to 6 meters per second. Amount of rain precipitation to 0.43 cm. Low probability of thunderstorms."

This suits Ireland, or it should if they play with more precision than they did against England and probably does not suit the French.

Tough place to go Dublin with a flaky fly half, bad weather and without a win this Championship


I did my usual. What did I think the prices should be?

I came up with Ireland 10/11, France 5/4

I think it will probably be a one score game

The actually prices are at

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/ireland-v-france/winner

I simply cannot have the Irish as Underdogs at home, against the French

Was stunned to see you could get 11/10 in a couple of spots, actually

Recommend £50 Ireland at 11/10
Recommend £5 The Draw at 20-1

The draw? Always close games, chances accentuated by poor weather

    2012: France 17-17 Ireland
    2011: Ireland 22-25 France
    2010: France 33-10 Ireland
    2009: Ireland 30-21 France
    2008: France 26-21 Ireland
    2007: Ireland 17-20 France

Let us go for it Rich, I know you don't tip stuff lightly, & you make a good ROI.

I would actually double both bets if the wind speed was 5 metres per second, but at 4 metres, it is not enough.

For the Draw, I first went to PP, but they restricted me to £2.37. Which was fortunate, as I then noticed that I could get 24 (23/1) the Draw on Betty, so we went that route.

We have £50 @ 11/10, Wm Hill, Ireland to beat France.

And £5 @ 24 (23/1), Betfair, the Draw.

ON



09 Mar 2013 - Ireland v France - Match Betting

Ireland @ 11/10

Stake : £50.00


Estimated Returns : £105.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000293/F

_____

Placed (matched) Order by Matched Date  Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
Ireland v France
DrawMatch Odds    24 £5.00 £115.00
Ref: 25647111524M Matched: 14:02 07-Mar-13 (UTC)

[bobby1]

I have to really resist falling into my old habits Keith.

I really really wanted to back McDowell this week.

I like him.

I admire his resilience.

Every time I have backed him, he was done well for me. I got him at 30/1 last year when he won, & I get get with him in a lot of 72 hole match bets.

But I've managed to avoid him this week, because I just don't think the course is quite right for him.

As you say, tremendously satisfying if I can get a sweat, & nick a few bob here & there.

In the immortal words of Mr Bad Beat, that's marvellous.

I think the aim of the thread as stated in post number one "So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark." has been achieved.

So I'm going retire from being a tipster on this thread (at least for the time being) to concentrate other stuff.

I'll keep my beady eye out though and if you start slipping into your old ways, you'll have to suffer the consequences. And you won't like them.

Good luck Fred!

PS Did I end up a winner on tips I gave here?

I think you should at least hang around until the fred-niffle-bash in October Keith.

Oh don't worry, I won't be missing THAT weekend unless I'm six feet under.

Just I've got quite a few things going on atm, and devoting time to helping Fred seems like a bit of a waste of time, when Fred is perfectly shrewd enough to look after itself.

But Keith.

The Old Fella aint getting any younger. Lets be honest, we all chuckle at the misclicks, but we all wonder if THAT was THE misclick, dont we.......?

This Fred needs a Tikay in waiting. We need a man that can store water for weeks at a time, for when the going gets rough.

CAMEL, This Fred needs YOU!

Parents need to know when it is safe to let their childen make their own way in the World.  Camel realises the time has come for him to losten those strings and allow Tikay his independence.  I think he's going to be fine....




...unless he goes anywhere near Betfair obviously

If Tikay gets someone pregnant in the next few months I am holding The Camel personally responsible

[Karabiner]

If Pont Alexandre does continue to firm up as expected it could make The New One a cracking(or even crackinger) EW proposition should it's price drift accordingly.

[tikay]

Cheltenham Update


Gold Cup

Long Run, £25 @ 7/1, Doobs

Long Run, £10 @ 13/2 (BetFred OFFER).Doobs

Long Run, £10 EW @ 10/1 (Wm Hill Offer).  Fred

Captain Chris, £10 EW @ 25/1

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly, £30 @ 3/1. Simon Galloway


Supreme Novices Hurdle

Jezki, £20 @ 8/1. Karabiner

Jezki, £20 @ 7/1 (Wm Hill Offer). Fred.

My Tent or Yours, £50 @ 6/4, FRED. £50 Free Bet if beaten.


Ryanair

Albertas Run, £10 EW @ 25/1, Non-Runner Free Bet. Ed Gascoigne.

Cue Card, £30 @ 5/1, FRED.

Triumph Hurdle

Irish Saint, £10 EW @ 14/1, Non-Runner No Bet. Ed Gascoigne.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Mail de Bievre £10 EW @ 16/1, Karabiner

Sprinter Sacre, £20 @ Evens, FRED


Albert Bartlett Hurdle

Utopia des Bordes £10 EW @ 10/1. Chompy

Neptune

Pont Alexandre, £30 @ 15/8, FRED (backed to trade later)

Pont Alexandre, £25 @ 2.86, FRED (backed to trade later)

Pont Alexandre, £25 @ 2.88, FRED (backed to trade later)



£2 Lucky 15 Big Adz

Rock on Ruby @ 10/1

Sir Des Champs @ 7/1

Boston Bob @ 10/1

Champion Court @ 10/1

Losses to date

Dynaste, £10

Colour Squadron, £5 Win

Colour Squadron, £5 place


Total Invested so far = £435

Losses so far = £20

[bobby1]

I know abs nothing about rallying Tony but apparently there might be a bit of value in taking Sebastien Ogier at 7/4 with Laddies in the rally of Mexico. Some thinking around that his car is in v good nick at the moment. Maybe £20 at 7/4

[lee h]

Tikay

re the rugby bet...Note -  Ireland are 2.26 on betfair  massively better than 11/10


lee

[tikay]

I know abs nothing about rallying Tony but apparently there might be a bit of value in taking Sebastien Ogier at 7/4 with Laddies in the rally of Mexico. Some thinking around that his car is in v good nick at the moment. Maybe £20 at 7/4

What?

Rallying?

You mean, like, cars?

In Mexico?


The world has gone mad. Camel disappears & we start punting motor cars in Mexico.

OK, cover me for the flak Phil.

We have £20 @ 7/4, Ladbrokes, Seb Ogier to win Rally of Mexico.

FWIW, we have the best of the Market, he seems to be 6/4 elsewhere, so that is something.

ON

Selection7/4 - S Ogier

Event2013 Rally of Mexico Mexico Rally

MarketRace winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - S Ogier
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £55.00
Time: 07/03/13 16:33
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000275

[tikay]

Tikay

re the rugby bet...Note -  Ireland are 2.26 on betfair  massively better than 11/10


lee

Bugger.

Thanks Lee.

I did check this morning, but I must have missed that. Oddly, I found a better price for the Draw on Betfair, & went with Betfair for that.

Too late now I'm afraid, but if others want to get on, Betty are still 2.26.

[bobby1]

I know abs nothing about rallying Tony but apparently there might be a bit of value in taking Sebastien Ogier at 7/4 with Laddies in the rally of Mexico. Some thinking around that his car is in v good nick at the moment. Maybe £20 at 7/4

What?

Rallying?

You mean, like, cars?

In Mexico?


The world has gone mad. Camel disappears & we start punting motor cars in Mexico.

OK, cover me for the flak Phil.

We have £20 @ 7/4, Ladbrokes, Seb Ogier to win Rally of Mexico.

FWIW, we have the best of the Market, he seems to be 6/4 elsewhere, so that is something.

ON

Selection7/4 - S Ogier

Event2013 Rally of Mexico Mexico Rally

MarketRace winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - S Ogier
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £55.00
Time: 07/03/13 16:33
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000275

I know nothing....

[tikay]

For the Darts fans, there is an (allegedly) "ENHANCED OFFER" on tonights Premier League renewal from Boylesports.

They are offering 9/4 on the golden triumverate of Barney, MvG & Mr Taylor.

I'm not interested in any Trebs or Accas personally, & I'm not fussed if we don't have any Darts action this evening, but there are many who may fancy some of this.

[Tonji]

I know abs nothing about rallying Tony but apparently there might be a bit of value in taking Sebastien Ogier at 7/4 with Laddies in the rally of Mexico. Some thinking around that his car is in v good nick at the moment. Maybe £20 at 7/4

What?

Rallying?

You mean, like, cars?

In Mexico?


The world has gone mad. Camel disappears & we start punting motor cars in Mexico.

OK, cover me for the flak Phil.

We have £20 @ 7/4, Ladbrokes, Seb Ogier to win Rally of Mexico.

FWIW, we have the best of the Market, he seems to be 6/4 elsewhere, so that is something.

ON

Selection7/4 - S Ogier

Event2013 Rally of Mexico Mexico Rally

MarketRace winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - S Ogier
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £55.00
Time: 07/03/13 16:33
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000275

I know nothing....

here he is in Mexico.

with a unique new helmet design!

[tikay]

Thanks Tonji.

Groan.........

What HAVE you given us, Phil?

A rally driver in a silly hat. In Mexico.

FML.