Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I received a "£100 NO LOSE BET" offer from Sporting Bet overnight.

I will Post it on horsey's "Offers Thread".


See....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=60568.new#new

I read it as for amount staked in other markets you can put equivalent stake on @ 1/5 on Sprinter Sacre no lose, not quite as simple because we need to find another bet with them to get the £20 freeroll.

Jeez, they do make these things complicated. I'm a bit too busy to get my head round this & I don't think it is of interest.

Ther T & C's are...


Place Cheltenham bets today to qualify for a “No Lose Bet” (max £100) on Sprinter Sacre in this Market. TC’s : Qualifying bets must be placed before 15.20 on any other Wednesday Cheltenham Race(s) to qualify. You can then place up to the total value of these bets in this “No Lose” Sprinter Sacre market (max £100). Bets in the “No Lose” Market are placed separately with your own betting funds (this is not a “matched Offer”). If Sprinter Sacre loses we refund qualifying bets in the “No Lose” Market (max £100). So if, for example you have a £50 bet on the Neptune you qualify for a £50 No Lose Bet on Sprinter Sacre with your own betting funds. If you place a £50 bet on the Neptune and £50 on the RSA you qualify for a £100 No Lose Bet on Sprinter Sacre. Do Not place your "No Lose" bets in the Regular Champion Chase Market - where they will be settled as losers if he does not win. MAXIMUM STAKES AS PER ONLINE LIMITS. BETS OVER £100 VOID. Singles Only.

[Doobs]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

[tikay]

Today's Cheltenham bets, as at present (there may be more later) are.....

Champion Chase, Sprinter Sacre, £20 @ Evens

Part 2 of Enhanced Double on Simonsig & Sprinter Sacre, £25 @ 2/1

Neptune Investment Hurdle, a variety of Bets, Lays & heaven knows what else on Pont Alexandre.

Champion Bumper, Liquidator, £5 EW @ 25/1

We also have the "Top Jockey" (McCoy) & "Top Trainer" (Mullins) in progress.

[horseplayer]

considering two people i respect on the irish stuff have told me they have backed
owega star in the impossible looking handicap i am putting it out there

well treated on the running with Un Beau Matin beaten 2 lengths 10lbs pull in weights. will say i have not looked at the race in any detail

vee cee are joint best price (other than betfair)

[tikay]

considering two people i respect on the irish stuff have told me they have backed
owega star in the impossible looking handicap i am putting it out there

well treated on the running with Un Beau Matin beaten 2 lengths 10lbs pull in weights. will say i have not looked at the race in any detail

vee cee are joint best price (other than betfair)

This is the 28 runner thingie @ 4pm.

BetVictor currently go 34/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/cheltenham/16:00/winner

[Doobs]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

As an example. I have a £50 free bet from Betvictor.  This morning I scanned bet victor's prices on odds checker.  In the 16.00 at Cheltenham there is a horse called Ericht.  It is trained by Nicky Henderson.  In its last race it won a novice easily, hence isn't fully exposed and carries a low weight.  So it has a good profile.  But more importantly the 16/1 betvictor offer is exactly the same price as on Betfair.

So I used my free £50 bet to back this horse on the nose.  Note I didn't back e/w because e/w on free bets is bad.

I am confident my expected return if I repeated similar bets in the long run is something very close to £50.

The chances are it will lose, but I still know I have utilised my free bet in a near optimal way.

[TightEnd]

thanks

I now have to add Ericht to my portfolio which is about three times the size it needs to be

thanks for the explanation though!

[Graham C]

Re the Coral offer to bet a tenner on the first and get a tenner, can it be £5 e/w or does it have to be a win bet?

[tikay]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

As an example. I have a £50 free bet from Betvictor.  This morning I scanned bet victor's prices on odds checker.  In the 16.00 at Cheltenham there is a horse called Ericht.  It is trained by Nicky Henderson.  In its last race it won a novice easily, hence isn't fully exposed and carries a low weight.  So it has a good profile.  But more importantly the 16/1 betvictor offer is exactly the same price as on Betfair.

So I used my free £50 bet to back this horse on the nose.  Note I didn't back e/w because e/w on free bets is bad.

I am confident my expected return if I repeated similar bets in the long run is something very close to £50.

The chances are it will lose, but I still know I have utilised my free bet in a near optimal way.

Thanks Doobs.

I know this is not a Recommend, but presumably that is the sort of thing Fred should do with his free £50 bet with BetVictor.

Suggestions welcome.

[tikay]

Would like to rec a bet on Minnesota v San Anotonio tomoro, bigger bet on the +9 handicap and a small banzai straight up at 4/1ish.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/san-antonio-spurs-at-minnesota-timberwolves/winner

The Spurs are already without their best player, Tony Parker, and have left their second best, Tim Duncan, and fourth best, Kawhi Leonard, at home injured. They have just left for tomoro's game in Minny without them so hopefully we get on before any price change. The bookies seem to be busy doing other things.

Minny have injuries themselves, but there's a possibility they might get at least one of their two knackered big men back. Even if they don't, the +9 handicap is defo too big, even if San An are pretty deep, should only be like +4

Sorry Jeff, I went Offline around 5pm, & could not really sort bets out after that time as I was (tryiing to) play the PLO8 @ The Vic.

[tikay]

Can u green out any of this teeks? Great bet, but it's so open and at 8/1 would be keen to at least get ya stake back. Nice work on the 33s tho

Betfair still have no market i imagine they might put one up when the field is finalised on sunday i agree laying £20 @ 8's would be a good idea i think Gonzaga's realistic odds of winning are closer to the 10-12 to one mark as there are so many decent teams with chances this year and most would have played a tougher schedule of games. looking at the prices now i like 2 teams at fancy odds from the atlantic 10 conference, St louis @ 100's (hills) and VCU @ 150's (blue sq) both good teams that are capable of pulling a major upset or two.

BUMPED to remind me.

[tikay]

2-1 gala

great stuff playing really well tonight

the dream lives on

despite one booking so far confident of hitting the spread still especially with the game situation now

Banzai Update.

We have £4 @ 250/1, Galastassary to win the Champions League, current price now around 50/1.

[Doobs]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

As an example. I have a £50 free bet from Betvictor.  This morning I scanned bet victor's prices on odds checker.  In the 16.00 at Cheltenham there is a horse called Ericht.  It is trained by Nicky Henderson.  In its last race it won a novice easily, hence isn't fully exposed and carries a low weight.  So it has a good profile.  But more importantly the 16/1 betvictor offer is exactly the same price as on Betfair.

So I used my free £50 bet to back this horse on the nose.  Note I didn't back e/w because e/w on free bets is bad.

I am confident my expected return if I repeated similar bets in the long run is something very close to £50.

The chances are it will lose, but I still know I have utilised my free bet in a near optimal way.

Thanks Doobs.

I know this is not a Recommend, but presumably that is the sort of thing Fred should do with his free £50 bet with BetVictor.

Suggestions welcome.

Yep,  something like that.  I got down to the 4pm race before I found something that fit the criteria.  You may get something better by Friday, you may not.  I just like to utilise these things when I remember them.  Getting £48 of value is way better than getting £0.

Edit.  Betvictor are best odds guaranteed which increases the value by a smidgen too.  Am fairly relaxed if you want to put it down as a recommend to me.  If you want to mark it to Fred that is ok too.

[tikay]

2nd NZ v Eng Test

Brendon McCullum is in fine form at the moment and his last 4 scores against England (in the 3 ODIs & 1st Test) have been 69*, 74, 79 and 74.  England have really struggled bowling to him.  Not sure exactly how to play it... Top bat @ 9/2 looks a decent shout, although he bats at 6 in the test team putting him at a slight disadvantage.  Ladbrokes have him 5/6 to score over 28.5, Will Hill offer 2/1 to score a fifty and Stan James 9/1 for a century.  The first 2 are for the 1st innings, the latter is for both.

New Zealand aren't (quite!) as bad as everyone is making out.  Their recent away record is pretty dire but at home have only lost 1 of their last 5 test matches, 3 of which were against South Africa.  Obviously England should win but 1.7 is too short for me, especially factoring in the rain which is due on days 4 and 5.  I certainly wouldn't argue against anyone who suggested laying them at that price

Any cricket chaps around?

gherkin left it with us to decide how to get with Brendam McCullum.

I would like to do this, but we need to decide which route.

Personally, I'd take Route Nit, 5/6 to score over 28.5.

[horseplayer]

2-1 gala

great stuff playing really well tonight

the dream lives on

despite one booking so far confident of hitting the spread still especially with the game situation now

Banzai Update.

We have £4 @ 250/1, Galastassary to win the Champions League, current price now around 50/1.

was a cracking game

i have got to be honest i cant see us getting any further but in patches they played really well

quite how the bookings did not get there is still haunting me this morning