Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

As an example. I have a £50 free bet from Betvictor.  This morning I scanned bet victor's prices on odds checker.  In the 16.00 at Cheltenham there is a horse called Ericht.  It is trained by Nicky Henderson.  In its last race it won a novice easily, hence isn't fully exposed and carries a low weight.  So it has a good profile.  But more importantly the 16/1 betvictor offer is exactly the same price as on Betfair.

So I used my free £50 bet to back this horse on the nose.  Note I didn't back e/w because e/w on free bets is bad.

I am confident my expected return if I repeated similar bets in the long run is something very close to £50.

The chances are it will lose, but I still know I have utilised my free bet in a near optimal way.

Thanks Doobs.

I know this is not a Recommend, but presumably that is the sort of thing Fred should do with his free £50 bet with BetVictor.

Suggestions welcome.

Yep,  something like that.  I got down to the 4pm race before I found something that fit the criteria.  You may get something better by Friday, you may not.  I just like to utilise these things when I remember them.  Getting £48 of value is way better than getting £0.

That is my worry, we must use it. We won't win very often at big prices, but we won't win ever if we don't use them.

[tikay]

2-1 gala

great stuff playing really well tonight

the dream lives on

despite one booking so far confident of hitting the spread still especially with the game situation now

Banzai Update.

We have £4 @ 250/1, Galastassary to win the Champions League, current price now around 50/1.

was a cracking game

i have got to be honest i cant see us getting any further but in patches they played really well

quite how the bookings did not get there is still haunting me this morning

My absence cost us the Basketball bet, but saved us on this one, as we would have gone with it, for sure.

[TightEnd]

2nd NZ v Eng Test

Brendon McCullum is in fine form at the moment and his last 4 scores against England (in the 3 ODIs & 1st Test) have been 69*, 74, 79 and 74.  England have really struggled bowling to him.  Not sure exactly how to play it... Top bat @ 9/2 looks a decent shout, although he bats at 6 in the test team putting him at a slight disadvantage.  Ladbrokes have him 5/6 to score over 28.5, Will Hill offer 2/1 to score a fifty and Stan James 9/1 for a century.  The first 2 are for the 1st innings, the latter is for both.

New Zealand aren't (quite!) as bad as everyone is making out.  Their recent away record is pretty dire but at home have only lost 1 of their last 5 test matches, 3 of which were against South Africa.  Obviously England should win but 1.7 is too short for me, especially factoring in the rain which is due on days 4 and 5.  I certainly wouldn't argue against anyone who suggested laying them at that price

Any cricket chaps around?

gherkin left it with us to decide how to get with Brendam McCullum.

I would like to do this, but we need to decide which route.

Personally, I'd take Route Nit, 5/6 to score over 28.5.

The runes are that this is a quick bouncy pitch

McCullum has named an unchanged team and said that if he wins the toss he will bowl

We'll see

McCullum is a great player of the short ball, more so than the top 3 imo

I think, if you wanted to support the recommendation, I would do

9/2 top bat for smallish money and hope the top order gets blasted out and McCullum counterattacks

[tikay]

2nd NZ v Eng Test

Brendon McCullum is in fine form at the moment and his last 4 scores against England (in the 3 ODIs & 1st Test) have been 69*, 74, 79 and 74.  England have really struggled bowling to him.  Not sure exactly how to play it... Top bat @ 9/2 looks a decent shout, although he bats at 6 in the test team putting him at a slight disadvantage.  Ladbrokes have him 5/6 to score over 28.5, Will Hill offer 2/1 to score a fifty and Stan James 9/1 for a century.  The first 2 are for the 1st innings, the latter is for both.

New Zealand aren't (quite!) as bad as everyone is making out.  Their recent away record is pretty dire but at home have only lost 1 of their last 5 test matches, 3 of which were against South Africa.  Obviously England should win but 1.7 is too short for me, especially factoring in the rain which is due on days 4 and 5.  I certainly wouldn't argue against anyone who suggested laying them at that price

Any cricket chaps around?

gherkin left it with us to decide how to get with Brendam McCullum.

I would like to do this, but we need to decide which route.

Personally, I'd take Route Nit, 5/6 to score over 28.5.

The runes are that this is a quick bouncy pitch

McCullum has named an unchanged team and said that if he wins the toss he will bowl

We'll see

McCullum is a great player of the short ball, more so than the top 3 imo

I think, if you wanted to support the recommendation, I would do

9/2 top bat for smallish money and hope the top order gets blasted out and McCullum counterattacks

OK, sorted, will confirm shortly.

Thanks Rich.

[tikay]

2nd NZ v Eng Test

Brendon McCullum is in fine form at the moment and his last 4 scores against England (in the 3 ODIs & 1st Test) have been 69*, 74, 79 and 74.  England have really struggled bowling to him.  Not sure exactly how to play it... Top bat @ 9/2 looks a decent shout, although he bats at 6 in the test team putting him at a slight disadvantage.  Ladbrokes have him 5/6 to score over 28.5, Will Hill offer 2/1 to score a fifty and Stan James 9/1 for a century.  The first 2 are for the 1st innings, the latter is for both.

New Zealand aren't (quite!) as bad as everyone is making out.  Their recent away record is pretty dire but at home have only lost 1 of their last 5 test matches, 3 of which were against South Africa.  Obviously England should win but 1.7 is too short for me, especially factoring in the rain which is due on days 4 and 5.  I certainly wouldn't argue against anyone who suggested laying them at that price

Thanks Cricket Chap.

We went with "Top NZ Batter" (this Test, not Series).  

We have £20 @ 9/2, BetVictor, Brendan Mccullum, Top NZ Batsmen.

ON

Single Selections

New Zealand v England
Brendon McCullum
(Top New Zealand Batsman - 1st Innings)
Odds:  9/2
Stake:  40.00
Possible Return:  220.00

[tikay]

That is it, we are up to date. If I have missed anything, speak up.

Two quick notes on the wonderful day, & fun, we had yesterday.

The "5 places paid" thing did not mean anything to me, or, I suspect, many other ice-creams & banana splits.

Was amazing to see Elder after Elder come on & say YOU MUST DO IT, BET BIG, YOU CAN'T LOSE.

And I'm thinking "wtf?"

Then we had to sort of bend the Bankroll Management Rules, where we are generally pretty strict. 

Anyway, I eventually grew a small pair, & what fun it was, so thanks guys. Learn something every day & we must get better, or at least, less worse.

Also......big respect to Neil Channing & the Betting Emporium thing for his Cheltenham race Previews. Ok, sample size, variance, luck, da de da, but a 49 point profit was pretty impressive stuff whatever way we look at it, & Fred had some of it.

I plan to chat with Neil & Joe when they are not quite so busy as to how we work together without stepping on each others toes. We will not allow "nicking" if we can help it, & anything taken from them for Fred by Fred regulars should give them acknowledgement.

Mere has also wisely suggested it may be a good idea to nominate "Betting Emporium" as a Fred Tipster in it's own right. So, from here on in, unless Neil or Joe suggest otherwise, anything from Neil or Joe will be owned by "Betting Emporium".

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I would just like to say that those lovely people at the Betting Emporium, and anyone else for that matter, can use any of my tips anyway they like, I am not at all fussed. It is the least I can do for my favourite poker player to watch on the telly, Mr Beevers not Mr Channing.

Cricket batters of all shapes and sizes playing this week.

[Simon Galloway]

Edo Brandes is back?

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I would just like to say that those lovely people at the Betting Emporium, and anyone else for that matter, can use any of my tips anyway they like, I am not at all fussed. It is the least I can do for my favourite poker player to watch on the telly, Mr Beevers not Mr Channing.

Cricket batters of all shapes and sizes playing this week.

What? No way am I letting Betting Emporium use your stuff!

Cricket, I think we have India to beat Australia, & that McCullum NZ Batter  bet so far.

You were not here when blonde begun, but Joe was tremendously helpful to blonde & myself, despite the fact he has his own, & very succesful, Poker Forum. And we have never had any problems, or stepped on each others toes.

Neil, same thing, we do some non-blonde business together, some next door & other bits & bobs. He even rung me on Monday about a delicate situation where he specifically did not want to rain on my parade as to another matter, so he thought he would ask first. He don't half talk a lot though.

May as well remind you that there has been two Cheltenham Updates on Betting Emporium this morning.

[horseplayer]

the forecasts show it raining most of the fifth day for the test in new zealand and the majority of the fourth day

just throwing it out there

[bobby1]

Nice work on the PA trade Ed, the possible  5/4 might even be shorter come the off. You have now become a successful sports trader too Tony.

[TightEnd]

it has been laid?

so the thread's position is it has a free x at y?

x and y are?

[bobby1]

it has been laid?

so the thread's position is it has a free x at y?

x and y are?

Price is a chinese dentist  (2.30) on Betfair now which was the bottom end of the lays, so the others are deffo done, the 2.30 might/or will be soon.

cheers

[tikay]

it has been laid?

so the thread's position is it has a free x at y?

x and y are?

Price is a chinese dentist  (2.30) on Betfair now which ws the bottom end of the lays, so the others are deffo done, the 2.30 might/or will be soon.

cheers

Yup, only the £20 @ 2.24 remains ummatched.

The 2.42, 2.36 & 2.30 are all Matched now.

Now what do I do? Nothing? Just count the freeroll money?

oooh.

[horseplayer]

the 2.24 will soon be matched

right old gamble going on here