Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0845, Tuesday March 19th

PROFIT on Month = £661.80

Outstanding bets £734


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=22

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0900, Tuesday March 19th

No action at all yesterday, nothing completed.

We placed two small bets on Thursday's Premier League Darts.

We luckily missed a Basketball bet which went south. At least we got that one right, we seem to struggle with Basketball whatever we do, so I'm counting last night as a fantasy winner.

Terrific debate here about the Lions Captain, which is a credit to blonde, anywhere else & there would be all sorts of adolescent strops being thrown. The "Lions Captain" market seems to be settling down now, with Warburton around 2/1 jolly, & BOD at 4/1 or better. Robshaw is 4/1 in places, whilst Alun Wyn-Jones varies between 8/1 & 3/1! It is a slight worry that Ladbrokes make him 3/1, almost as if they know something we don't.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/british-and-irish-lions-tour/to-be-named-captain

There are actually a number of "Lions Team" Markets now, including.....

Start at fly-half

Start at hooker

Start at full back

Start at scrum half. 


http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour

[Tal]

Chess returns at 2pm after a rest day and our man Magnus Carlsen is white against the chap dwelling on the left on Day 3 of the 2010 Main Event:

Click to see full-size image.

Grischuk is a keen poker player but is a specialist in blitz chess. He is no pushover in the classical stuff, though, and his three draws so far demonstrate how tough he is to beat. He will likely play aggressively, so it will be interesting to see how Carlsen combats that.

[tikay]

Chess returns at 2pm after a rest day and our man Magnus Carlsen is white against the chap dwelling on the left on Day 3 of the 2010 Main Event:

Click to see full-size image.

Grischuk is a keen poker player but is a specialist in blitz chess. He is no pushover in the classical stuff, though, and his three draws so far demonstrate how tough he is to beat. He will likely play aggressively, so it will be interesting to see how Carlsen combats that.

Wow, great spot!

If the Betfair market is any guide, we should be ok today - Girschuk is 30/1 to win it outright.

[Bad Beat]

 Hi Tal, There used a to be a blonde French woman in Team Winamax ho was supposed to be amazing at chess. I just checked out their site but I couldn't find her. I think there are a lot of examples of top chess players who play poker. Ivo Donev is often cited as one, but I don't know enough to know if he is great at chess.

[Bad Beat]

 I so nearly called you last night Jeff, as I was thinking of poting something I read on Twitter.

 The Knicks were 15-0 ATS vs the Jazz.


 That is to say that if you bet the Knicks on the handicap at 10/11 the last 15 times they played the Jazz, you would have effectively had 15 consecutive coin flips go your way.

 The Knicks were a 10-pt underdog last night.

 They won the game easily.

 Make it 16.

[Tal]

Hi Tal, There used a to be a blonde French woman in Team Winamax ho was supposed to be amazing at chess. I just checked out their site but I couldn't find her. I think there are a lot of examples of top chess players who play poker. Ivo Donev is often cited as one, but I don't know enough to know if he is great at chess.

I've just checked (double pun ever so intended) and Donev is an International Master, which is one below Grand Master. Very strong player nonetheless. Well above my level.

Quite a lot of decent chess players of his level play poker on the side for their wages, even if they regard themselves as chess players first.

At his peak, Ylon Schwartz was about the same level as Donev. Almira Skripchenko might be the woman you're talking about, possibly.

Dan Harrington was a strong player in his day.

[Bad Beat]

That was her. Bingo. Doesn't seem to be on the leaner looking Winamax Team now.

[Bad Beat]

 Just had a quick flick through the budget betting.

 The length of speech is set at 55. Over is 4/6 with Hills and under 11/10. Ladbrokes are 5/6 each and Sid James are 10/11 each. Given that Hills fancy themselves at politics and they reckon they have loads of contacts there must be a great chance that the Stan James guy has just copied and pasted. I can't get on but if anyone has a view...

 More interestingly Ladbrokes have a list of things the chancellor might say. Obviously there is no price "not to say" but it's a score at any time market (there can be lots of winners). On first glance I thought a few of them looked big. Anyone else spot any? If we spot the same one it's probably a bet.

 Also colour of his tie. If you haven't already, don't look , and tell me the % chance it's blue...

[TightEnd]

Have been researching a different market in the budget

Sips of water

In 2011 Osborne took 4 sips of water

In 2012 8 sips of water

This is very much an outlier from long term trends

Brown was a 2 sips per speech man at most, Darling never got above 1


It's likely to be a difficult speech. Unpopular government in austere times, lots of cuts, no growth, but debt not reducing. Likely to have dry mouth and he strikes me as the nervous lily-livered sort anyway

So am scouring for a sips of water betting market to go overs...

[tikay]

Just had a quick flick through the budget betting.

 The length of speech is set at 55. Over is 4/6 with Hills and under 11/10. Ladbrokes are 5/6 each and Sid James are 10/11 each. Given that Hills fancy themselves at politics and they reckon they have loads of contacts there must be a great chance that the Stan James guy has just copied and pasted. I can't get on but if anyone has a view...

 More interestingly Ladbrokes have a list of things the chancellor might say. Obviously there is no price "not to say" but it's a score at any time market (there can be lots of winners). On first glance I thought a few of them looked big. Anyone else spot any? If we spot the same one it's probably a bet.

 Also colour of his tie. If you haven't already, don't look , and tell me the % chance it's blue...

If we could get better than 1/10, it would count as a "Priority Offer".

PS  I was a bit tied up over the weekend, so never replied, but I was insanely jealous of that Ladbroke Enhanced Favourites thing. Was really grateful you rung me about it, but the timing could not have been worse for me & I missed the lot.

Looking forward to Aintree.

[TightEnd]

2012

Click to see full-size image.

2011




I'd have made blue 6/4 ish

[tikay]

Have been researching a different market in the budget

Sips of water

In 2011 Osborne took 4 sips of water

In 2012 8 sips of water

This is very much an outlier from long term trends

Brown was a 2 sips per speech man at most, Darling never got above 1


It's likely to be a difficult speech. Unpopular government in austere times, lots of cuts, no growth, but debt not reducing. Likely to have dry mouth and he strikes me as the nervous lily-livered sort anyway

So am scouring for a sips of water betting market to go overs...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/uk-budget/sips-of-water

[tikay]

Budget Specials......


http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election

[TightEnd]

Have been researching a different market in the budget

Sips of water

In 2011 Osborne took 4 sips of water

In 2012 8 sips of water

This is very much an outlier from long term trends

Brown was a 2 sips per speech man at most, Darling never got above 1


It's likely to be a difficult speech. Unpopular government in austere times, lots of cuts, no growth, but debt not reducing. Likely to have dry mouth and he strikes me as the nervous lily-livered sort anyway

So am scouring for a sips of water betting market to go overs...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/uk-budget/sips-of-water

oh no.

going to now spend an inordinate amount of time cogitating and then have to watch the thing too, counting