Tips for Tikay

Quote from: gherkin on April 05, 2013, 05:24:55 PM

Here is my County Championship preview for Division 1

Warwickshire: Quite rightly favourites, if they perform close to the same level of last couple of years they will be in the top 3
(+ve) Best Championship seam attack by a long way in Woakes, Rankin, Barker, Wright & Clarke. Also have a very useful spinner in Patel.
Best late order/tail in the league, Woakes and Clarke are genuine all rounders and Barker, Patel and Wright are very handy with the bat.
They have come 1st and 2nd the last 2 seasons (would have been 2 successive wins without a very controversial points deduction) and that is with numbers 3,4 and 5 averaging less than 35 runs both seasons, which I'd expect an improvement on this time around
(-ve) Reserve keeper Johnson moved to Derby, so if Ambrose gets injured it will be a problem.
When Bell & Trott are playing for England (probably 12 of the 16 games) the middle order (Westwood, Evans, Troughton, Maddy) looks weaker than the likes of Somerset, Surrey or Notts

Nottinghamshire: Always look good on paper but underperformed the last 2 years (5th and 6th). Fancy them for a 1 day trophy rather than CC
(-ve) The bowling is the obvious weakness and bringing in a 1 day specialist (Shahzad) won't help them regularly take 20 wickets
(+ve) If the bowling does click then the batting will takle care of itself with the likes of Hales, Lumb, Taylor, Read, Cowan/Hussey bound to post some impressive totals.

Somerset: Last 3 years: 2nd/4th/2nd - very consistent. Turning draws into wins will be key
(+ve) Given the number of injuries they had last year, 2nd was very impressive
Runs will come no problem, despite losing Compton to England they have Trescothick back from injury to go with Peterson, Suppiah, Hildreth, Kieswetter & Trego. Along with Notts, strongest top 6
(-ve) Similar to Notts, how often will they get 20 wickets per game? Surprised they didn't bring in 1 top bowler over the winter which would have made them favourites. They went after Harris but didn't try anyone after then when he chose Middlesex

Surrey: Most unpredictable team in the division. Wouldn't be surprised if they won the league or finished 7th
(+ve) In Graeme Smith they obviously have an excellent player and leader, just what Surrey needed.
They axed much of the deadwood and replaced them with the likes of Keedy, Solanki & Smith/Ponting - very experienced solid performers but very much a short term solution
Probably the 2nd best bowling attack after Warwickshire - Dernbach, Meaker, Tremlett, Lewis & Keedy/Batty.
(-ve) Niggling injuries to key players (Smith & Tremlett) at the start of the season - can't find any info if they will be fit for the start of the season but they haven't had any match practice.
Very much a young or old squad - no players in their prime

Derbyshire: No chance of winning the league although staying up is possible
(+ve) A few things going for them - Momentum, confidence, young team, nothing to lose and Chanderpaul is as good as any batsmen in the division
(-ve) It's one thing winning Div 2, but to win Div 1 the very next year is a completely different challenge. I don't think any team has done it yet, and so for a small team like Derbyshire to do it would be beyond impressive

Durham: A team in freefall, gone from back to back winners to title challengers to a mess in 5 years. Great outside bet on finishing bottom at 7/1
(+ve) Stokes, Collingwood, Benkenstein, Mustard is as good a 4,5,6,7 as any team and Onions was excellent with the ball last year
(-ve) Blown all their money on the likes of Harmison, Di Venuto, Benkenstein, Blackwell & Plunkett in the last 2 years so they can't afford an overseas player this season
Their best (and only top class) bowler will get an England call up if he does anywhere near as well as he did last year
Completely over rated team on the basis of their streangth 3-5 years ago.

Middlesex: Solid all round team with an outside shot at the title, 2 very good coaches copying the succesful set up at Warwickshire
(+ve) In Harris they signed the most saught after player this winter. Bowling should look after itself, similar standard to Surrey just lacking a top spinner which could prove costly late on in the season
Players like Harris and Morgan should be fighting for England spots, scoring plenty of runs and taking plenty of wickets
(-ve) Probably the weakest keeper in the league (in terms of stats/experience, I don't think I've ever seen him play)
Batting was poor last year (Rogers aside) and they opted for the "it'll be alright this time around" strategy rather than improving it!

Sussex: I just look at their squad and think one day cricket. That said they've been a consistent mid-table team since they were promoted
(+ve) If they get a good start, they certainly have the talent and experience to be a contender
(-ve) One day cricket will surely be a priority for them and a sustained challenge in this competition seems unlikely, especially if Monty plays a few tests for England
Ed Joyce has never convinced me he is captain material. If they get off to a bad start like last season I can see the wheels coming off instead of another recovery

Yorkshire: Young team, surely too much to expect them to win it but can definitely see them staying up
(+ve) The 1st XI looks reasonable, plenty of very capable younger players to compliment the experienced Sidebottom, Plunkett and Gale
(-ve) Root, Bairstow & Bresnan are all likely to feauture for England at various points in the summer, which will likely expose their lack of depth

Predicted Position / Team / (% chance of winning the title) / (% chance of relegation)

1. Warwickshire / 20% / 10%
2. Somerset / 17% / 10%
3. Surrey / 15% / 10%
4. Nottinghamshire / 14% / 10%
5. Middlesex / 12% / 15%
6. Yorkshire / 9% / 25%
7. Sussex / 6% / 25%
8. Derbyshire / 2% / 60%
9. Durham / 5% / 35%

As you can see it's a lot more open league than something like the Premier League. With 2 out of 9 going down, not even the best teams are safe.

In terms of bets, personally I went for Warwickshire when they were 5/1. You can still get them at 9/2, not sure if that's enough value for a 5 month bet.
**As a disclaimer, I'm a big Warwickshire fan. I was on them in 2011 when they finished 2nd (at 12/1) and again last year when they won it (at 10/1). In my 10ish years of betting on this competition these are the only 3 seasons I've backed them, so it's not a case of just betting on my team**

Whilst I wouldn't have chosen it myself, you did well getting on Middlesex at 17/2 as they are now 15/2. Somerset look the right price at 6/1 and Notts look too short at 11/2. I'm considering Surrey at 7/1, going to have a think about that one

Since you have the Middlesex bet on I'd probably advise to leave it for now and we'll see if either the Surrey, Somerset or Warwicks price increase in the next few days.

The "finish bottom" market is more interesting. Derbyshire are favourites but have, at most, a 40% chance of coming last. There is definitely value backing Durham (7/1). I really want a relegation market, hopefully one will appear before the season starts - I'd love to take Sussex at 4/1 or better or Durham around 7/2.

Top Scoring Captains: Read, Collingwood, Gale & Troughton are all unlikely to pass 1000 runs.
Of the 6/1 shots - Masden only got 885 runs in Div 2 last year, Smith is only playing 10 games for Surrey which is obviously a big handicap and Joyce is capable but nowhere near as prolific as Trescothick, Rogers or Smith
To me it has to be Trescothick or Rogers... I expected them both to be around 2/1. Rogers last 3 season totals are 1108, 1286 and 1285. Trescothick last 3 full seasons (ignoring 2012 where he was mostly injured) were 1673, 1397 and 1817. Both have had 5 seasons in a row of 1100 runs plus

Top Batsman: Trescothick last 4 full seasons since quitting England: 6th (2008), 1st (2009), 4th (2010), 1st (2011),
No need to look elsewhere, I'd suggest an E/W bet (1/4 top 5) at 10/1
As a back up (and still decent value) then maybe consider Rogers Top Scoring Captain at 10/3

Had a look briefly at the "top team batsman" market but nothing immediately took my fancy

I'll post Division 2 when I get a chance, hopefully find some better value there

Reminder to self to get these sorted today.