Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Be good for our bets on Chelsea & Arsenal if Everton win this.

[tikay]

In the Rugby bet, 15 points at half-time.

So, we need a Toal Points of less than 36.......

30 points now.

Bugger. I think.

[Tal]

Mind the gap

Like watching the Bulls without Pippen, Rodman and Jordan.

[rinswun]

Just watched the Quins/Munster game and I can't say I've seen a better performance from a lock all season than the one Paul O'Connell has put in. Outside shot to captain his 2nd Lions Tour? Currently 8/1 with Hills.

[tikay]

Chelsea a goal down to Sunderland at half time.

The DeCanio noise will die down if he gets a few results.

[tikay]

Spurs equalise!

[tikay]

Just watched the Quins/Munster game and I can't say I've seen a better performance from a lock all season than the one Paul O'Connell has put in. Outside shot to captain his 2nd Lions Tour? Currently 8/1 with Hills.

Possibly, but we are quite heavily invested in that Market already.

We have Warburton and Heaslip so far, though I'd not be averse to others if there was warmth. I enjoy RU, but I am no judge of good or bad amongst players.

[Chompy]

Texted my cycling man about Quintana for the TdF.

His reply was to the point.

"Lol, no"

[Tal]

Great game, that. Fair result and tbh I'd have taken that with the team we had out today.

Looks like that's the only league game Defoe will miss and possibly Bale.

[rinswun]

Just watched the Quins/Munster game and I can't say I've seen a better performance from a lock all season than the one Paul O'Connell has put in. Outside shot to captain his 2nd Lions Tour? Currently 8/1 with Hills.

Possibly, but we are quite heavily invested in that Market already.

We have Warburton and Heaslip so far, though I'd not be averse to others if there was warmth. I enjoy RU, but I am no judge of good or bad amongst players.

Well he's into 15/8 fav now so I think we've missed the value anyway!

[gherkin]

CC DIVISION 2

Essex - Good young players coming through but they they are going to need a big April/May to still be in contention late on
(+ve) Bopara should be available for the whole season, giving them the best all-rounder in the league, to go with the best keeper (Foster)
3 very promising seam bowlers (Mills, Topley & Craddock) to go with a fairly strong looking top 7
(-ve) Letting 2 of their best players (Shah & Ten Doeschate) go off and play in the IPL will hurt them since they will have played 7 games by the time they return.  They also lost Adam Wheater to Hampshire
Coach seems unpopular and has failed so far, probably his last chance this season

Hampshire - Great one day team that should finish in the top 2 or 3 in the CC
(+ve) Batting looks very solid - Adams, Bailey/McKenzie, Carberry, Vince, Ervine.  Runs shouldn't be a problem
They signed Ajmal for the end of the season who will likely rip through at least a couple of batting line-ups in this division
(-ve) Seam attack looks to lack depth compared to Lancashire

Lancashire - Pretty much expected to win the league but (2011 aside) they are renowned for underachieving
(+ve) On paper they have the best squad with a very good balance
Signed Kabir Ali and Simon Katich who I rate pretty highly, both bound to do well in this division
(-ve) Possibility of Glenn Chapple dying mid run up if they put any more workload on him. 
Been favourites plenty of times before and the expectation has become a burden

Kent - Threw it away last year after being top for so long, kept almost exactly the same squad
(+ve) Some great experienced players in Key, Jones, Tredwell & Stevens and a lot of potential talent, some of which (Bell-Drummond/Northeast) are already performing.
Their first XI can match any team in this division so if they avoid injuries they have a real chance
(-ve) Can't afford an overseas player, so will need some of the unproven youngsters to perform in order to go up
A couple of injuries to key players and they have no chance

Glamorgan - Hard to tell if they have are beginning to rebuild or continuing their downward slump
(+ve) The likes of Goodwin, North, Allenby, Wallace, Wagg could get into any side in this division
(-ve) They have depended so much on 4 or 5 players in the past and I see no reason it will change this season. 
Their best bowler left for Middlesex, so I'm not sure how often they will get 20 wickets in a match

Leicestershire - Young team, mid table would be a very good achievement
(+ve) Didn't do as bad as expected last year and in Sarwan have a solid player / leader
(-ve) Their best player (White) went to Lancashire and has left a big hole in the bowling - I haven't heard of some of the players they have brought in over the winter as replacements
Inferioir in almost every department to the top 3 or 4 teams, almost impossible task to expect promotion

Northants - Went from almost going up in 2011 to really poor last year
(+ve) Trent Copeland is a very good overseas player.  Another Aussie they recruited, Stephen Crook, is meant to be good as well
Plenty of experience and ability in the squad to help (Hall, Middlebrook, Willey, etc)
(-ve) What are they going to do when Copeland leaves?  Unless they get a replacement I'm not sure how often they'll get 20 wickets

Gloucestershire - Very unlikely to get promoted let alone win the league
(+ve) Decent young seam attack with no expectations, could prove a surprise if they hit form & start regularly picking up 20 wickets as a unit
(-ve) Too many "potential" players where basically the stats make pretty grim reading

Worcestershire – Been a yo-yo team in recent years but I can’t see them going back up this time around
(+ve) Samaraweera is exactly the sort of overseas signing they needed, impressive solid batsmen
(-ve) They finished bottom of Div1 last year, despite Phil Hughes having a very good season.  Without him (or Solanki) this year I think their batting looks vulnerable, even in this league.
Bowling is over reliant on the ageing Alan Richardson


My Prediction & % chance of winning Div 2
1. Hampshire   (25%)
2. Lancashire  (25%)
3. Kent  (16%)
4. Essex  (13%)
5. Northants  (7%)
6. Glamorgan  (3%)
7. Worcestershire  (5%)
8. Leicestershire  (3%)
9. Gloucestershire  (3%)

Realistically Glamorgan, Gloucestershire and Leicestershire have very little chance of going up, let alone winning the league.  Worcester look really weak to me, can't believe most bookies have them around 7/1 to win the league - I'll happily lay 10/1.  Any of the 5 remaining teams could win the league.  I don't see any value in the Kent, Lancashire or Essex price for reasons I mentioned earlier - Kent's squad looks thin and the 5/1 offered is reflective of their best XI not the squad as a whole.  Essex have 7 Championship games before the end of May (when the IPL ends and they get 2 of their best players back).  Lancashire & Hampshire look pretty equal to me, so no point in backing the shorter price.  As for Northants, I agree that they are definitely underrated by the bookies.  They shouldn't be the same price as Gla, Glo, Leic.  The problem is as other contenders will strengthen in the 2nd half of the season (Essex, Hampshire), Northants will be considerably weaker when Copeland leaves.  If they are to go up they have to be top at the start of August in my opinion OR get a top quality bowler in for the last 2 months, which I'm not sure they can afford

So that leaves my choice, Hampshire at 4/1.  Saeed Ajmal is one of the best spinners in the world and so when he joins Danny Briggs at the start of August I suspect they will win lots of matches on wearing pitches.  Their top 6 is the best in the league (on paper anyway!) and they have 2 decent keepers.  Not only does their first XI look very strong but, just like Lancashire, they have depth if they do get injuries.  If the seamers (Wood, Tomlinson, Balcombe) can get 20 wickets on a regular basis they will be the team to beat.

I haven't had a look at the other markets yet, will do that tonight at some point

[TightEnd]

Nice stuff

Northants are 20-1. 1/5 odds top 3 gives you 4-1 to finish 3rd

Behind Lancs and Hants they are all weak-ish teams, and I think Northants will be much improved this year. Not just Copeland but more batting too

Thats why I think they are value, e/w....at the veryleast think you get a great run for your money at the price....should be top 5 all the way to my mind

Cannot disagree at all with Hants. We know that the Rose Bowl Groundsman is adept with worn pitches, Hants routinely get to the latter stages of T20 by playing on spin friendly pitches and playing three spinners

With Briggs unlikely to be called up for represnetative games, Ajmal to come and the likes of Carberry and Adams to score runs..looks a very good bet to me

[ripple11]

Great analysis on the season ahead gherkin  ........and hopefully a great tip on Div 2  

Great news that radio commentry is now available for county matches:

" also good news for county cricket that the BBC and the ECB have come together to deliver every county match live online up and down the country for the first time, and it’s a collaboration that is good for both parties.""

[hector62]

The quotes for points in the super league game tonight between Leeds and Warrington look too high. The 7/4 with Stan James for under 46 looks decent but for Mr T the Evs for under 52 points with William Hill looks very good.

I feel Mr T is in the land of nod but if he wakes up and fancies it then it kicks off at 6.45pm.

Only 1 of Leeds's games has had more than 42 points and that was a home game against Salford. Leeds attack is old,and predictable but their defence is old and OK, especially at home.

[bobby1]

Someone was asking about Luca Brecel re the world snooker championship earlier in the week, sorry to report he just lost 10-6 to Fraser Patrick in a qualifier.