Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Good morning.

I plan to load up on gherkin's cricket bets today, for Div 1 & Div 2.

The only feedback so far has been positive, but if there are further views, let me know please.

There were, if I recall correctly, 6 or 8 different bets in total, so we could be talking about quite a lump of money. 

[tikay]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Most interesting, & you sell a great story. I'm convinced.

My question would be.....

We asre already invested in the Championship Relegation market as follows.....

Birmingham City, £20 @ 5.4.

Wolves, £10 @ 15/2

Bolton, £5 @ 33/1

We can safely assume that the Birmingham & Bolton bets are both dead, or as we prefer to call them, "Walsall's"......

So we need to decide a stake. I'm inclined to do something in the area of £40 or £50.

Thoughts?

[Tal]

The Birmingham bet was made on the basis that their financial situation is...precarious...and a ten point deduction would put them rather heavily in the brown stuff.

That's still where they are, but they are, I imagine, likely now to complete their fixtures this season.

[tikay]

The Birmingham bet was made on the basis that their financial situation is...precarious...and a ten point deduction would put them rather heavily in the brown stuff.

That's still where they are, but they are, I imagine, likely now to complete their fixtures this season.

Correct. In fact, I was quite sure they would suffer the 10 point penalty, & I suppose they still might, which would almost certainly relegate them. The bet was good, imo.

The nut bad scenario would be if it dragged on through the summer because the League dithered. I seem to recall there was a similar situation a few seasons ago with one team. (QPR?)

[Tal]

The Birmingham bet was made on the basis that their financial situation is...precarious...and a ten point deduction would put them rather heavily in the brown stuff.

That's still where they are, but they are, I imagine, likely now to complete their fixtures this season.

Correct. In fact, I was quite sure they would suffer the 10 point penalty, & I suppose they still might, which would almost certainly relegate them. The bet was good, imo.

The nut bad scenario would be if it dragged on through the summer because the League dithered. I seem to recall there was a similar situation a few seasons ago with one team. (QPR?)

I can't work out what's going on with the club. There's this Carlsen Yeung chap who as far as I know is still awaiting trial in Hong Kong, with it having been put off a couple of times. He has had all his assets frozen but players are still getting paid and someone is putting 20p in the meter for the floodlights. There were concerns about tax a few weeks back, but that seems to have died a death.

Meanwhile the fans are fuming and wondering what might have happened, had Pavlyuchenko not decided to have his one good game that month.

[Tal]

Ryan Mania has tweeted that he is "grand", that he'll be in hospital for another scan today and that he should then be home.

[tikay]

Ryan Mania has tweeted that he is "grand", that he'll be in hospital for another scan today and that he should then be home.

Yes, I herard that on the wireless this morning. What a relief.

How incredibly brave are those jockeys? Being a jump jockey is infinitely more dangerous to health than being a F1 driver. True. 

[Doobs]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Most interesting, & you sell a great story. I'm convinced.

My question would be.....

We asre already invested in the Championship Relegation market as follows.....

Birmingham City, £20 @ 5.4.

Wolves, £10 @ 15/2

Bolton, £5 @ 33/1

We can safely assume that the Birmingham & Bolton bets are both dead, or as we prefer to call them, "Walsall's"......

So we need to decide a stake. I'm inclined to do something in the area of £40 or £50.

Thoughts?

I am not sure on this.  Home games are easier than away games and I am not sure if playing relegation rivals away is easier than mid table teams at home?? Might have a look later.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I don't have Chompy's dedication to the Euro songfest, I just have one aim in my research and that is to assess the British entry. I have thus far listened to Bonnie Tyler too many times and come to the conclusion that it is not a bad song, but it is a bad Euro song. It is bland, bland, bland. Quite what she is going to do on stage to win votes is also a mystery as in the video she looks like something out of footballers wives that has aged 50 years, gone to fat and lost 16 inches in height.

The whole of Europe loves this competition as they get to show us what they really think of us. We could have a Eurovision with only 2 entries, us and the Germans. Our song could be written by Lennon/ McCartney, and sung by Elvis. For the Germans they could have Adolf Hitler singing a remake of Take That's " Rule the World" and I would make it 5/6 each of 2.

I would suggest £20 with Paddy Power that we finish 21st or lower @ 7/4.

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I don't have Chompy's dedication to the Euro songfest, I just have one aim in my research and that is to assess the British entry. I have thus far listened to Bonnie Tyler too many times and come to the conclusion that it is not a bad song, but it is a bad Euro song. It is bland, bland, bland. Quite what she is going to do on stage to win votes is also a mystery as in the video she looks like something out of footballers wives that has aged 50 years, gone to fat and lost 16 inches in height.

The whole of Europe loves this competition as they get to show us what they really think of us. We could have a Eurovision with only 2 entries, us and the Germans. Our song could be written by Lennon/ McCartney, and sung by Elvis. For the Germans they could have Adolf Hitler singing a remake of Take That's " Rule the World" and I would make it 5/6 each of 2.

I would suggest £20 with Paddy Power that we finish 21st or lower @ 7/4.

Excellent! And I'm sorry to be offensive, but jeez, how bad is dear Bonnie Tyler? Ugh, so embarrassing. She'll make a fortune though.

Really, we should seek Chompy's advice, he is the Eurovision Geek Bloke, lives his whole life around Eurovision, & Bin-Day in St Neots.

As it happens.....Paddy Power would only allow me.....£4! So bugger it, we are on, but only for £4. Still worth some fun.

We have £4 @ 7/4, UK to finish 21st or lower in the Eurovision Shite Contest.

ON

 Eurovision Song Contest UK's Finishing Position
22-05-2013 20:00
UK Finishing Position
21st or lower @ 7/4
 
Your Bets Win
Single: 21st or lower @ 7/4
1 line at £4.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £4.00
Potential returns: £11.00
No: O/23146337/0000287

 
Total stake: £4.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £4.00

[tikay]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Most interesting, & you sell a great story. I'm convinced.

My question would be.....

We asre already invested in the Championship Relegation market as follows.....

Birmingham City, £20 @ 5.4.

Wolves, £10 @ 15/2

Bolton, £5 @ 33/1

We can safely assume that the Birmingham & Bolton bets are both dead, or as we prefer to call them, "Walsall's"......

So we need to decide a stake. I'm inclined to do something in the area of £40 or £50.

Thoughts?

I am not sure on this.  Home games are easier than away games and I am not sure if playing relegation rivals away is easier than mid table teams at home?? Might have a look later.

Thanks Doobs.

I'll hold off until you comment further.

[Chompy]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

[Doobs]

Morning Mr T.

I don't have Chompy's dedication to the Euro songfest, I just have one aim in my research and that is to assess the British entry. I have thus far listened to Bonnie Tyler too many times and come to the conclusion that it is not a bad song, but it is a bad Euro song. It is bland, bland, bland. Quite what she is going to do on stage to win votes is also a mystery as in the video she looks like something out of footballers wives that has aged 50 years, gone to fat and lost 16 inches in height.

The whole of Europe loves this competition as they get to show us what they really think of us. We could have a Eurovision with only 2 entries, us and the Germans. Our song could be written by Lennon/ McCartney, and sung by Elvis. For the Germans they could have Adolf Hitler singing a remake of Take That's " Rule the World" and I would make it 5/6 each of 2.

I would suggest £20 with Paddy Power that we finish 21st or lower @ 7/4.

Looks good to me but gone already . Think 6/4 is still ok though.  In the last 10, they have finished lower than this 6 times.  The years before this weren't so good, but £20 seems fine still.

Edit.  Didn't see tikay's post.  Confirmation Tikay is no longer an ice cream.  They shift the price and limit him to £4.

[Doobs]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

[Tal]

Morning Mr T.

I don't have Chompy's dedication to the Euro songfest, I just have one aim in my research and that is to assess the British entry. I have thus far listened to Bonnie Tyler too many times and come to the conclusion that it is not a bad song, but it is a bad Euro song. It is bland, bland, bland. Quite what she is going to do on stage to win votes is also a mystery as in the video she looks like something out of footballers wives that has aged 50 years, gone to fat and lost 16 inches in height.

The whole of Europe loves this competition as they get to show us what they really think of us. We could have a Eurovision with only 2 entries, us and the Germans. Our song could be written by Lennon/ McCartney, and sung by Elvis. For the Germans they could have Adolf Hitler singing a remake of Take That's " Rule the World" and I would make it 5/6 each of 2.

I would suggest £20 with Paddy Power that we finish 21st or lower @ 7/4.

Looks good to me but gone already . Think 6/4 is still ok though.  In the last 10, they have finished lower than this 6 times.  The years before this weren't so good, but £20 seems fine still.

Edit.  Didn't see tikay's post.  Confirmation Tikay is no longer an ice cream.  They shift the price and limit him to £4.

May I just confirm that there are at least 22 entries?