Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

Blackburns opponents over the last few games have been against mid-table teams, Burnley, Blackpool, Leeds, the odd lower team the odd higher team.  Pretty much the same spread they have in the next 5 games.

Fact is they haven't won since early Feb, and that was against Ipswich, and before that B.City.   Ignoring the cup run, they've won 3 since the 1st Jan.  

What do we think has changed, or will change in the last 6 games.  What kind of state are they moral wise, and how much are they fighting for the "club, fans, owners," etc, when off-field antics have crippled the club, with who knows what future the players have.

Stil convinced myself for £40 @ 5/2

I have seen all the form, and know the club problems.  I just thought you were ignoring a big factor if you didn't consider home and away.

I said I'd get back.

I have taken the available betfair odds, and calculated the odds on every single game remaining which involves relegation threatened clubs.  I expect some of the later ones may be off a bit, because when you get relegation threatened clubs against mid table clubs, the club in peril is always shorter then you'd expect looking at the table.  But I didnd't want to do too much work, as I have other things to do.

I have assumed Bristol are down, and have the most relegation threatened clubs as roughly
Peterborough 53.5
Huddersfield 54
Wolves and Blackburn 54.5
Barnsley 55.5

Think Leeds and Millwall will get enough unfortunately.  I have Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool (2 edits!) as next worse on 57.5.

Clearly these are just averages and there will be a lot of variance around the figures.

Assuming Huddersfield are in worse form than Blackburn, I think they are too short.  

Barnsley also look a bit short.

Wolves look a little big at 5/2, but think we have them already anyway.

Blackburn look the best bet, and you can get 3/1 at both Paddy Power and Bet365.  Several others have 11/4.

Think £40 is absolutely fine.  Would probably up it a touch.

Cheers

[rinswun]

IPL Day 5 update:

What a contrasting day in the Indian Premier League. The days early game saw the Kings XI stroll to a win with 7.4 overs to spare after Pune's puny 99/9 proved to be about 70 short of par. Pune have started poorly and Marlon Samuels has done the same. On the upside Luke Wright didn't get picked for the second game in a row so he's still on zero runs with a minimum 14 games remaining and Azhar Mahmood didn't bat for the Kings XI either.

Whilst the morning game was short on drama, the evening game was anything but with the Royal Challengers and the Sunrisers playing out just the second 'superover' in IPL history. Dale Steyn managed to shackle Chris Gayle enough to guide the new boys to a second straight win.

Today's game will hopefully give us the chance to see Owais Shah open his account for the tournament as his Royals take on Eoin Morgan's Knight Riders. After one round Morgan was the only qualifying Englishman to pick up a run (14 of them in fact) so it's very much as you were on that front.

[simonnatur]

That was for my biggest ever bet as well !

At this rate next year I will be tipping in amounts of less than £5.

Hard to believe you tipped FIFTY quid!

These days you are mostly in the £10 to £25 range, whilst some guys want £150 on everything.

Unbelievable, your biggest bet, it won, & we missed it. And unlike yesterday, I could not use the "I was asleep" excuse.

There's been a bit of discussion recently about Fred's bet sizing and wondered if it would be worth asking contributors to recommend bets on a points scale say 1-5 pts, based on perceived value, rather than £ values ?  

[tikay]

Agree here Hector, Bonnie has zero chance and Europe still hate us. If we wanted to win the ESC we should get McFly on stage, not Humplebert or Bonnie. Every chance we'll finish last.

Re: Blackburn, they look to have the easiest run-in to me. Derby, Birmingham, Millwall have nothing to play for and Huddersfield are just terrible.

PP take £4 at 7/4? They really are a joke. Someone should go on their facebook page and type "Here Paddy, why don't you stop making shite adverts and just lay a decent bet instead?"

See if they use that in their next ad.

Had a brief look at the Blackburn run in earlier too and it didn't look bad, lots of draws and 1 goal defeats in their bad run too.  Will definitely give it a good look later but got a couple if things to do now.

Blackburns opponents over the last few games have been against mid-table teams, Burnley, Blackpool, Leeds, the odd lower team the odd higher team.  Pretty much the same spread they have in the next 5 games.

Fact is they haven't won since early Feb, and that was against Ipswich, and before that B.City.   Ignoring the cup run, they've won 3 since the 1st Jan.  

What do we think has changed, or will change in the last 6 games.  What kind of state are they moral wise, and how much are they fighting for the "club, fans, owners," etc, when off-field antics have crippled the club, with who knows what future the players have.

Stil convinced myself for £40 @ 5/2

I have seen all the form, and know the club problems.  I just thought you were ignoring a big factor if you didn't consider home and away.

I said I'd get back.

I have taken the available betfair odds, and calculated the odds on every single game remaining which involves relegation threatened clubs.  I expect some of the later ones may be off a bit, because when you get relegation threatened clubs against mid table clubs, the club in peril is always shorter then you'd expect looking at the table.  But I didnd't want to do too much work, as I have other things to do.

I have assumed Bristol are down, and have the most relegation threatened clubs as roughly
Peterborough 53.5
Huddersfield 54
Wolves and Blackburn 54.5
Barnsley 55.5

Think Leeds and Millwall will get enough unfortunately.  I have Sheffield Wednesday and Blackpool (2 edits!) as next worse on 57.5.

Clearly these are just averages and there will be a lot of variance around the figures.

Assuming Huddersfield are in worse form than Blackburn, I think they are too short.  

Barnsley also look a bit short.

Wolves look a little big at 5/2, but think we have them already anyway.

Blackburn look the best bet, and you can get 3/1 at both Paddy Power and Bet365.  Several others have 11/4.

Think £40 is absolutely fine.  Would probably up it a touch.

Cheers

Excellent, thanks for your help.

[tikay]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Details to follow later today, but we have placed this.

We have MAXED at Paddy Power, £35 @ 3/1, & MAXED at Bet365, £10 @ 3/1.

Will Post the Betslip later, busy right now.

Thanks.

[tikay]

More conference value on Tuesday night!

Hyde are EVS at home to beat struggling Ebbsfleet. Hyde have shown some good form recently and in their last 7 games have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1. They just need to keep going and will almost mathematically avoid relegation with this win so have real momentum and incentive on their side.

Ebbsfleet are all but relegated and are simply terrible, they have lost more games and conceded more away goals in the conf than any other side.

Most firms go a shade of odds on but BetVictor go even money which in my view is a great price.

Reccomend a nice little investment.

I never confirmed the details of this Greg, I placed the bet yesterday, they are as follows.....



£40 @ Evens, BetVictor, Hyde to beat Ebbsfleet.

ON


07/04/2013 GBP 40.00 Single: HYDE UTD @ 1/1 
Betid 31047358100 Time: 22:40 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 40.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
Hyde Utd v Ebbsfleet United ENG Blue Square Premier - 2012/13
Match Betting - 90 Mins
 Hyde Utd  1/1  Win only  Unsettled 

[tikay]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Confirming the details, we have.....

£35 @ 3/1, Paddy Power, Blackburn to be relegated.

£10 @ 3/1, Bet365, Blackburn to be relegated.

ON

08/04/2013 Single To Win Blackburn @ 3/1
Relegation
Npower Championship Relegation 2012-2013 Pending £35.00

_________

Bet Confirmation  - RH0239451210O  - Internet   Time of bet:  08/04/2013 13:19:23  Print 
 
Selections
No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
      1 Blackburn  npower Championship 2012/13
(To Be Relegated) 01/05/2013 None 3/1 To Run
 

[tikay]

IPL Day 5 update:

What a contrasting day in the Indian Premier League. The days early game saw the Kings XI stroll to a win with 7.4 overs to spare after Pune's puny 99/9 proved to be about 70 short of par. Pune have started poorly and Marlon Samuels has done the same. On the upside Luke Wright didn't get picked for the second game in a row so he's still on zero runs with a minimum 14 games remaining and Azhar Mahmood didn't bat for the Kings XI either.

Whilst the morning game was short on drama, the evening game was anything but with the Royal Challengers and the Sunrisers playing out just the second 'superover' in IPL history. Dale Steyn managed to shackle Chris Gayle enough to guide the new boys to a second straight win.

Today's game will hopefully give us the chance to see Owais Shah open his account for the tournament as his Royals take on Eoin Morgan's Knight Riders. After one round Morgan was the only qualifying Englishman to pick up a run (14 of them in fact) so it's very much as you were on that front.

Thank you, another great Update.

Come on Shah, we need someone to kick-start us.

[Tal]

Coincidentally, it was exactly one year ago that I joined blondepoker.

63 days of my life well spent.

Really? Wow.

You are an absolute asset to us, right across the Site.

We first met in Vegas, in June, & it was love at first sight I thought you seemed OK.

And I've spent every moment since trying to convince you otherwise 

[rinswun]

Bah, Shah omitted again. Best thing to hope for now is Rajasthan getting skittled for about 80 or another Brad Hodge failure. Makes no sense to me.

[aaron1867]

Anyone just see the 3.20 wolves?

[Waz1892]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Confirming the details, we have.....

£35 @ 3/1, Paddy Power, Blackburn to be relegated.

£10 @ 3/1, Bet365, Blackburn to be relegated.

ON

08/04/2013 Single To Win Blackburn @ 3/1
Relegation
Npower Championship Relegation 2012-2013 Pending £35.00

_________

Bet Confirmation  - RH0239451210O  - Internet   Time of bet:  08/04/2013 13:19:23  Print 
 
Selections
No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
      1 Blackburn  npower Championship 2012/13
(To Be Relegated) 01/05/2013 None 3/1 To Run
 

All the best!  Read earlier that care-taker is off to India for talks......sacked/fulltime job.....who knows!

[aaron1867]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

[tikay]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

[aaron1867]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

I am going to have to look and read over again to get my head round this.

and thanks also!