Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

I am going to have to look and read over again to get my head round this.

and thanks also!

Well we are on now........

You may well disagree, but I can't get every decision right. The buck thing stops here.

[Waz1892]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

I am going to have to look and read over again to get my head round this.

and thanks also!

Well we are on now........

You may well disagree, but I can't get every decision right. The buck thing stops here.

I think it'll be fine,.........can....worms....everywhere..

[TL900]

Looking for someone with a working Bwin account that could possibly put a couple of bets on for me for tomorrow?

[Doobs]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

Never looked at it closely before, so didn't back them before.  Hopefully your 12s will come in.

Having previous bets on an event should not stop us having another bet.  The only stipulation we should have is that the new bet is deemed to be value.  Obviously we don't want the whole bank on one match, but don't think our risk officer would have a problem with another £45 on.

After looking at the betting and matches the only thing I disliked was the fact that they have two home matches coming up next.  But at least we get to find out quickly if we were right and can move on!

[aaron1867]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

Never looked at it closely before, so didn't back them before.  Hopefully your 12s will come in.

Having previous bets on an event should not stop us having another bet.  The only stipulation we should have is that the new bet is deemed to be value.  Obviously we don't want the whole bank on one match, but don't think our risk officer would have a problem with another £45 on.

After looking at the betting and matches the only thing I disliked was the fact that they have two home matches coming up next.  But at least we get to find out quickly if we were right and can move on!

I didn't get on at 12's in the end, could not work out whether I should be regarding bets I already have on in the situation. But if we have missed a bigger price previously (and a lot bigger than current) I am not sure how we can put an interest in it with regards to theory of TFT?

[Marky147]

Anyone just see the 3.20 wolves?

3:10?

[Doobs]

I am struggling to see why we have got on Blackburn here?

I put the recc in a long time ago at 12's and we already have a fair interest in the basement battle as it is....?

Waz, Doobs & I explained it all Aaron, including our current Book, of which two out of the three bets are as good as dead.

PS - Congratulations on TWO binks at the weekend - the Fred winner, & the DTD Final. Very well done.

Never looked at it closely before, so didn't back them before.  Hopefully your 12s will come in.

Having previous bets on an event should not stop us having another bet.  The only stipulation we should have is that the new bet is deemed to be value.  Obviously we don't want the whole bank on one match, but don't think our risk officer would have a problem with another £45 on.

After looking at the betting and matches the only thing I disliked was the fact that they have two home matches coming up next.  But at least we get to find out quickly if we were right and can move on!

I didn't get on at 12's in the end, could not work out whether I should be regarding bets I already have on in the situation. But if we have missed a bigger price previously (and a lot bigger than current) I am not sure how we can put an interest in it with regards to theory of TFT?

All that matters is if it is a good price when you put the bet on.  You would miss so many bets if you introduced this criteria.

For every bet Tikay misses that turns out to be a good thing, there are several that turn out to be terrible. 

Even if that 12s looks great value now, a couple of goals for Blackburn in drawn games and a terrible run for a couple of relegation rivals and Blackburn would be 10 points clear and Blackburn could have been 100s now.   

[scotty2hatty]

 Aaron, you don't get how Blackburn can be a better bet now at 3/1 than at 12s when you posted?

[bobby1]

Does anyone have any experience of Whiplash?

As in car crash whiplash not Miss Whiplash that is.

[the sicilian]

Shoot me down, but I think this is too good to resist?

Championship Relegation battle.  I live in Peterborough, so an "vested interest", although I haven't been since '91 when they knocked out Liverpool (I was and still am a red's supporter)

So I wondered what kind of run-in they had, they are getting results (unbeaten in the last 8 as I type) so maybe half-a-chance. Run in is nasty, playing (currently) 3rd, 4th and 6th in the next 5 games left.

So i then ventured onto the other teams around the relegation battle......so, my bet is a 5/2 shot (with Whills) on a club going down - he is why I think -

Taking into account, form, league run-in and opponents....

OK, taking into account current league positions going upto Sheff Wed in 18th place (3points separates 18th to 23rd), giving each club their opponents league position and divided by number of games you get an average of "points" for their run-in.  The lower the number the harder the run-in.

Posh - 8 "points" They have 5 games left, playing 3rd, 6th, 10th,18th and 4th (added, divided = eight)
Blackburn 11
Huddersfield 20
Barnsley 8.5
Wolves 10
Sheff Wed - 16

still with me...

Huddersfield have the lowest "points" so easier run-in by some distance, the highest place they play is 15th! (although acknowledged all cup-finals, 2 of which are at home)
Hardest run-ins Posh, Barnsley, Wolves blackburn

Wolves have won 3 from 4.
Posh unbeaten in 8
Blackburn with a "points score" of 11 havent won a game in over 10 matches
Barnsley lost 1 in last 6

Blackburn are 5/2 to get relegated...

They play Derby, Huddersfield, Watford, Millwall (10days after cup semi), Palace, Birmingham.

Thanks Waz.

Confirming the details, we have.....

£35 @ 3/1, Paddy Power, Blackburn to be relegated.

£10 @ 3/1, Bet365, Blackburn to be relegated.

ON

08/04/2013 Single To Win Blackburn @ 3/1
Relegation
Npower Championship Relegation 2012-2013 Pending £35.00

_________

Bet Confirmation  - RH0239451210O  - Internet   Time of bet:  08/04/2013 13:19:23  Print 
 
Selections
No. Selections Event Event Date E/W Terms Odds Result
      1 Blackburn  npower Championship 2012/13
(To Be Relegated) 01/05/2013 None 3/1 To Run
 

All the best!  Read earlier that care-taker is off to India for talks......sacked/fulltime job.....who knows!

I remember reading somewhere they used to make steve keane fly to india once a month for a report..not heard of video conferencing then...obv a case of when i say jump..gives you an insight into the people at the top of the club

[exstream]

If never TEXTED a bet to paddy power, text them on 51465 saying '20 come on man utd' to get £20 on at 5/2 which price is beating bf by a fair bit and could be layed if wanted.

[tikay]

If never TEXTED a bet to paddy power, text them on 51465 saying '20 come on man utd' to get £20 on at 5/2 which price is beating bf by a fair bit and could be layed if wanted.

Ugh, too late, but thank you.

As it happens, I am on Utd with Betty, at just over 6/4.

[horseplayer]

appreciate probably nobody is watching the lazio game but this was a lovely goal

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xyueom_roma-0-1-lazio-gol-de-hernanes-serie-a_sport?search_algo=2#.UWMYjJPvu3i

[tikay]

If never TEXTED a bet to paddy power, text them on 51465 saying '20 come on man utd' to get £20 on at 5/2 which price is beating bf by a fair bit and could be layed if wanted.

Ugh, too late, but thank you.

As it happens, I am on Utd with Betty, at just over 6/4.

Not the greatest bet I ever made.......

[TightEnd]

Paddy Power currently go 2/1 from evens Man U to score the first goal