Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

Question for darts bods:

It is the inaugural Dubai Masters at the end of May:

http://www.matchroomsport.com/sports/darts/individualevents/dubai_darts_masters.htm

Just chanced across this market:

http://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Darts/

Is Barney good value (I don't think we know the draw yet) at 9/1 with each way ⅓ first two?

That isn't even the biggest price, so unlikely.  I wouldn't say I was strong enough to form a view on the correct price though

You have a touching way with words!

A month before the event, I genuinely hadn't considered that other firms would have put up a market yet.

I'll pipe down now, then.

[Doobs]

Suggest Fred backs Rock on Ruby £25 e/w in the 17.30 at Punchestown tomorrow with BetVictor.  Take the 4/1 available, as they are best odds guaranteed.  The offer makes it a winning bet despite the 11/2 or so available on betfair.  Evens the place beats Betfair by a margin too.

FWIW I am a big fan of Hurricane Fly, but 1/3 looks mighty short, so those without the BetVictor offer aren't getting a bad price at 11/2, and I think the 9/2 e/w in several places is a marginal winning bet even without thinking Hurricane Fly looks mighty short.

So in addition think thread can take an additional £25 e/w at 9/2 with Ladbrokes (Boyles declined me, and suspect PP will limit you)

[Doobs]

Suggest Fred backs Rock on Ruby £25 e/w in the 17.30 at Punchestown tomorrow with BetVictor.  Take the 4/1 available, as they are best odds guaranteed.  The offer makes it a winning bet despite the 11/2 or so available on betfair.  Evens the place beats Betfair by a margin too.

FWIW I am a big fan of Hurricane Fly, but 1/3 looks mighty short, so those without the BetVictor offer aren't getting a bad price at 11/2, and I think the 9/2 e/w in several places is a marginal winning bet even without thinking Hurricane Fly looks mighty short.

So in addition think thread can take an additional £25 e/w at 9/2 with Ladbrokes (Boyles declined me, and suspect PP will limit you)

If we don't come second to Hurricane Fly, then we should use the BetVictor offer on the next race to back Un Atout (18.05 Punchestown).  If we miss that, Mullins has the short priced favourite in the 18.40 and 19.10.  If we miss those two, I give up.

I won't be around to advise, but you shouldn't go far wrong under this offer by picking out the 2nd favourite to beat the favourite and just making sure the BetVictor price on that horse is close to Betfair.

[ACE2M]

Fred should back Murphy for the world champs snooker.


He's playing the best, Trump is no way playing better and he's half the price.

whilst Murphy is in good form and Trump is streaky, is Murphy really going to beat Trump then Ronnie to get even an e/w part up?

No sir

I can see Ding beating Selby and then beating White/Walden/Milkins (Ding/Selby will be 1/3 to win their quarter final)

I think he is better e/w value than Murphy, purely because of the topography of the draw.

Ding 13/2, Murphy 11/1 when I last looked

ding got next to no chance v selby imo

[tikay]

Daily Report @ 0735, Friday April 26th   (covers 48 hours)

LOSS on Month = £1,110.89

Outstanding bets £2,314.50



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Daily Summary, @ 0800, Friday April 26th

£57.50 was deposited into bookies satchels, never to return, in the last 48 hours.

We had two x £25 bets on the horses, "money back if a Mullins trained horse wins" (Sir Des Champs) & I've treated them as pushes.  Think that is right. Or wrong.

We lost a £25 IPL Cricket bet, & most galling of all, we stood to win £260 if Dortmund were winning @ HT & FT. Dortmund thrashed Real real good, 4-1, but a rather fortuitous goal just before Half Time cost us dearly. Yup, the sound of straws being grasped pervades Fred.

We managed to swerve, thanks to my awol-ness, a Darts bet which headed due south, too, though I'm not sure we would have been on.

Sole blue ink belonged to a very unusual & clever spot by Horsey on Possession stats in the Dortmund game. Despite being soundly thrashed, horsey read the game right & Real easily had the most possession. Shows how misleading possession stats can be. Take the + £37.50, thank you.

Our two remaining snooker bets are intact, Selby & Trump, Selby, to my eye, looking much the better, & Trump as infuriatingly erratic as ever.

In Girlie Golf, Jiyai Shin is 1 under, 6 behind the leader & 4 behind the 2nd placed bunch. Still every chance.

In County Cricket, Durham rather annoyingly bashed up the once mighty Yorkshire yesterday, which is a bad thing.

Hampshire & Northants both did rather better, & both these bets are off to a good start.

Middlesex, Div One, are in great shape too, though they have only played 2 games thus far.

In Championship Football, Watford face Leicester this evening, & I think we'd rather like to see Watford despatch Leicester to aid our Brighton bet. Tighty, not so much.

I have absolutely no idea how our NFL Draft bets went/are going, but the all-night commentary Team, led by Tighty, & supported by Camel, redarmi & Newport Lad was a thing of beauty.

[tikay]

Radjabov drew soildly today.

 

Click to see full-size image.

Thanks Simon.

I have studied that cross-table at some length, & applied a considerable degree of read-between-the-lineage, & to my expert eye - & maybe I am reading too much into it - but there is an intepretation available which suggests our man is plum bottom.  Technically, I mean.

Plenty of time.

[BigAdz]

Let's hope we don't have to endure pages of angst ridden photos of this chess player, with captions like " here is Radjabov after he again stuck his Bishop in the wrong place".........

[tikay]

Surprised Poomjaeng hasn't got a mention for this.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/snooker/22303239

I must say, I think he gave a welcome touch of character & humour to the Championship, & I've much enjoyed watching him.

Click to see full-size image.

Incidentally, you may not know, but the Lady Referee (Michaela Tabb) looking on with a wistful look - she had a bad day, truth be told - is a blonde Member.

Think she goes by the stunningly obscure Alias of Lady Ref.

[tikay]

Let's hope we don't have to endure pages of angst ridden photos of this chess player, with captions like " here is Radjabov after he again stuck his Bishop in the wrong place".........

You may wish that, me, quite the opposite, I LOVE the Chess Reports. In fact, that was half the reason for the bet, to get Spurs Bloke's Chess Reports.

Each to their own.

Next up, The Bale Report.

[BigAdz]

Bet you didn't get the Carry On films either Tikay?

Maybe it's too early.

[Tal]

Radjabov was a risk (hence just a fiver) because he'd had a rotten time in London and his confidence would have taken a beating.

If he had been on level par at this point, he would be in contention because a win comes and he regains his confidence.

Won't happen now, as the damage has been done.

I'm interested in the price of Anand against Kramnik in the other chess tournament, the second half of which starts in St Petersburg on Sunday IIRC. Anand beat him last month in Zürich although they generally draw. Kramnik isn't playing anything like he did in the Candidates, suggesting fatigue, dented pride or both. 13/1 with Marathon for Anand to win with the Black pieces is probably big enough to beat the overround.

I'll mull.

[tikay]

Bet you didn't get the Carry On films either Tikay?

Maybe it's too early.

I think I may just about have spotted the Carry On style double intendre, though I confess, I could not bear to watch those dreadful films, with Miss Windsor popping out as the running joke. Oh Dear God no......

Too early though, yes, conceded.

[tikay]

I should add, especially for Adzy, that we don't do sexual stuff, not me, not ever, not never.

So Fred shall be spared no less than EIGHT photos from the World Snooker Championships, which I have, instead, placed on my Diary.

Sexual content & innuendo?

No Sir, ooh no. Just snooker.


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=25486.msg1762960#msg1762960

[tikay]

Radjabov was a risk (hence just a fiver) because he'd had a rotten time in London and his confidence would have taken a beating.

If he had been on level par at this point, he would be in contention because a win comes and he regains his confidence.

Won't happen now, as the damage has been done.

I'm interested in the price of Anand against Kramnik in the other chess tournament, the second half of which starts in St Petersburg on Sunday IIRC. Anand beat him last month in Zürich although they generally draw. Kramnik isn't playing anything like he did in the Candidates, suggesting fatigue, dented pride or both. 13/1 with Marathon for Anand to win with the Black pieces is probably big enough to beat the overround.

I'll mull.

Mull away, but if your Daily Reports contain reference to, & photos of, the greatest City I have ever visited, & arguably the best on earth, St Petersburg, Fred demands you recommend a bet.