Tips for Tikay

[DMorgan]

ewwwwwwwww only just seen time - sorry for being late - quick get on folks

Missed MVG, but done Taylor, Barney and Wade. Good luck m8!

sheesh!

No one got paid in ANY acca tonight! Where did that come from?

Wade confirmed massive bottlejob

Tilting off 2 darts when he blocks T20 with the first one with 160ish left and Hamilton on 64 to lock up the draw was ridiculous.

[JaffaCake]

Lebron MVP will be next week tony. They are saying he's gonna be first ever unanimous pick so he's defo got it. They've awarded everything else, Sixth Man, Defensive Player, Rookie of the Year (tipped by me at 6/1 on the season preview I posted here) so it's next up.

Interesting thing they were chatting about on the commentary of one game this week and typifies the sort of info we love for Fred to have a bet. Carmelo Anthony made only 10 of 35 shots, they had a quiz question who's the only player to shoot worse in a playoff game. The answer was Michael Jordan, which the pundit got as he was on the Bulls team at the time. He said that Jordan was so sure they would win (were 3-0 up in the series) that he went out and played 60 holes of golf the day before and was knackered come game time. That's the kind of info we need!

[Spudy]

Recommend backing the draw in the weekend match between Liverpool and Everton. Everton have managed to draw 8 games from 17 away fixtures in the Premiership this season, and an impressive 1-1 away to Man City, and also 0-0 away to Arsenal. With Liverpool missing Suarez, at 27/10 with Bet Victor, the draw may well be the value bet? Recommend 20 pounds at 27/10 on the draw.

[Tal]

UKIP gets just under 24% of the vote in South Shields to finish SECOND behind Labour.

[Tal]

Was Fred just on over 17%?

Couldn't find a bet on the spreadsheet for UKIP second, so maybe I'm confusing my by-elections.

[JaffaCake]

Recommend backing the draw in the weekend match between Liverpool and Everton. Everton have managed to draw 8 games from 17 away fixtures in the Premiership this season, and an impressive 1-1 away to Man City, and also 0-0 away to Arsenal. With Liverpool missing Suarez, at 27/10 with Bet Victor, the draw may well be the value bet? Recommend 20 pounds at 27/10 on the draw.

U may be right Spud but that's all info the lovely bookies have while building their books including their over round to make sure they win. Now if u know the whole Everton team will be playing 60 holes of golf at your local course the day before the game, then we're in!

[tikay]

Was Fred just on over 17%?

Couldn't find a bet on the spreadsheet for UKIP second, so maybe I'm confusing my by-elections.

Yes, we only bet "over 17.5% of the vote", mainly because I was flat out busy at the time, & did not have time to do the rest of the Election stuff that Tighty stuck up.

I am going to bump his Post shortly, always worth a look in the rear-view mirror when someone gets it so right.

[tikay]

Local Elections tomorrow

I think UKIP might clean up, relative to expectations

- The normal protest vote, Lib Dem, is off the agenda for many as they are part of the goverment

"mid-way through a parliament it is the second or third parties who steal the spoils. But Ed Miliband is polling badly for a Labour leader three years into a Tory-led government. As for the Lib Dems, the traditional protest party in local elections, Coalition has been nothing but catastrophic for them in the polls."

- UKIP is polling at national highs, 14% in the last ComRes poll this week

"The party has been riding high in the polls at around 15% over recent weeks. Don’t expect that to change off the back of a few negative stories."

Indeed there are reports that major party rubbishing of the UKIP has backfired, and it is a measure of how concerned the major parties are that the scare stories came out for the weekend press

- "UKIP is fielding 1,745 candidates, three times as many as it did the last time these seats were fought in 2009. The Lib Dems are fielding 1,763 candidates"


Recommend

£60 UKIP Share of national vote over 17.5% William Hill at 5/6

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/4390457/UKIP-national-share-of-the-vote-on-2nd-May-2013-elections..html
 

Alternative recommend

"Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict."

Over 100 seats gained 6/4 Ladbrokes

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics-and-election/local-elections/total-ukip-seats-gained

references


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22019280

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ YouGov have tried Local Election opinion polling and come up with a figure of 22% for UKIP, with a number of caveats

Guido Fawkes the Conservative blogger recommended over 50 seats at Evens 48 hours ago in this

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/04/29/guido-fawkes-bring-on-the-clowns-why-im-tipping-ukip-to-take-50-seats-in-thursdays-local-elections/

Market moved to 1/10 and got withdrawn


As a cross-check, PP offer a market on UKIP share in the South Shields by-election, and make over 22.5% a 4/7 shot....

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/other-politics/uk-politics

That's in the safest Labour seat and its tricky to extrapolate any reference to national vote share but taking over 17.5% definitely feels like the best of it....




Disclaimer: Recommendation does not reflect my personal politics, just a betting transaction for financial gain, I hope

BUMPED

Over 50 seats? With only 6 sets of results in, & 28 more to follow, they have already gained 41 seats.

Think Tighty's post may we worth looking at in detail once the full results are available.

[tikay]

Lebron MVP will be next week tony. They are saying he's gonna be first ever unanimous pick so he's defo got it. They've awarded everything else, Sixth Man, Defensive Player, Rookie of the Year (tipped by me at 6/1 on the season preview I posted here) so it's next up.

Interesting thing they were chatting about on the commentary of one game this week and typifies the sort of info we love for Fred to have a bet. Carmelo Anthony made only 10 of 35 shots, they had a quiz question who's the only player to shoot worse in a playoff game. The answer was Michael Jordan, which the pundit got as he was on the Bulls team at the time. He said that Jordan was so sure they would win (were 3-0 up in the series) that he went out and played 60 holes of golf the day before and was knackered come game time. That's the kind of info we need!

Thanks Jeff.

60 holes of golf in a day?

Jeez, I often used to play 36 in a day, but 60 is just crazy.

[tikay]

Especially for tikay

Click to see full-size image.

Roller morale is high at Trent Bridge

In case you missed it first time around.

What an absolute beaut.

[tikay]

April 2013 Figures

Closed bets: 160
Amount wagered: £5,025.79
Profit/loss: -£1,231.39
ROI: -24.00%

Number of "sports" bet on: 16
Most popular:  Football (53), Horses (38), Golf (21).
Most profitable:  Football (£109.55), MMA (£99.25), Rugby Union (£93.00)
Least profitable: Horses (-£941.06), Golf (-£372.50), Basketball (-£120.33)

Number of tipsters: 32 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 1,487
Amount wagered: £50,010.21
Profit/loss: £1,162.47
ROI: 2.32%

Number of "sports" bet on: 28
Most popular:  Football (474), Horses(195), Golf (132), Cricket(110).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   1,280.79   15,779.26   8.12   474
NFL   724.25   2,935.00   24.68   77
RL   458.61   1,015.00   45.18   46
...
Formula1   -373.00   490.00   -76.12   19
Golf   -546.37   3,878.00   -14.09   132
Basketball   -1,081.22   2,633.66   -41.05   57

Note that overall profit on horses of £882.54 until the end of March has now become a loss of £58.52.

The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 117


Number of different bookies/exchanges: 23

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
        
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Betfair   751.90   5,420.55   13.87   156
WilliamHill   670.34   6,069.00   11.05   156
Bet365   532.40   2,248.96   23.67   90
...
Bwin   -312.30   990.00   -31.55   29
PaddyPower   -468.01   4,511.50   -10.37   165
BetFred   -512.75   3,010.00   -17.03   95


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7

Quite surprised this elicited no comments.

A few observations are in order, I think......

Firstly....redarmi repeatedly suggested, a while back, that with ROI @ close to 5%, it was probable that we were running very much the right side of variance, & that eventually it would bite us on the bum.

Bum duly bitten.

[tikay]

In April.....


Most profitable:  Football (£109.55), MMA (£99.25), Rugby Union (£93.00)
Least profitable: Horses (-£941.06), Golf (-£372.50), Basketball (-£120.33)

And there we have it. We did our conkers in April on the horses at Aintree, & a coup in Devon that went awry very much against the odds, with The Masters being a bit of a disaster, too. I think we self-examined The Masters debacle at the time, & it was largely down to sheer weight of suggestions & my inabilty to sort the wheat from the chaff due to time issues.

Note "MMA", only small, but has been delivering consistent winners, down to Scotty.

[tikay]

April was gloomy for us, if we touched it, it went wrong, but overall we are still ahead of the game, & I genuinely doubt many individuals can say that, the Pros excepted.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 1,487
Amount wagered: £50,010.21
Profit/loss: £1,162.47
ROI: 2.32%

[tikay]

Most & least profitable sports. (Since Day One, Feb 1st 2012)

God bless Football, NFL, & Rugby League. Note that in Rugby League, we rarely bet more than £25 at a time.

As to biggest losers, The Golf numbers were largely due to The Masters. No excuses, got it round my neck pretty bad.  F1 remains a frustration, but we are persevering. We have certainly cut down on the F1 bets, & I think we have a winner on the sheet with Vettel.

Basketball? I really don't know what to say or think. People get sensitive, but it's not personal, just numbers. 57 bets is still small by sample size, but -41% ROI & over £1,000 is a fact. If a decent opportunity arises, & we can get a value price, yes, we'll get on, but I think I need to be more selective.


Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   1,280.79   15,779.26   8.12   474
NFL   724.25   2,935.00   24.68   77
RL   458.61   1,015.00   45.18   46...


Formula1   -373.00   490.00   -76.12   19
Golf   -546.37   3,878.00   -14.09   132
Basketball   -1,081.22   2,633.66   -41.05   57

[tikay]

Note that overall profit on horses of £882.54 until the end of March has now become a loss of £58.52.

Amazing, we just ran into the perfect storm.

To be honest, I'd do every one again, in the identical circumstances.