Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

McDowell v Jaidee in the Matchplay final it looks like

£10 at 17-2 is on McDowell (well done Hector)

Jaidee is 15/8 to win the final

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/volvo-world-match-play-championship/volvo-world-match-play-championship/winner

Easy £15-20 on Jaidee and make it a win-win isn't it Hector?

-£10/+£65 would become (on £20) +£27.5/+£45.......

Personally, as Chairman of the Nit Society, I would deffo do something like that, but we ought to see what The Milkman says first. I will deffo be doing some off-thread saving though.

[Tal]

Tighty, has Fred's red pen run out of ink? All the numbers seem to be in blue?

[tikay]

Tighty, has Fred's red pen run out of ink? All the numbers seem to be in blue?

Tighty did a really clever anti rail yesterday - he said Fred never wins on a Saturday. Tighty is the new Chompy.

[Tal]

Just a thought re today's soccerball games:

Spurs and @r2ena1 are both silly odds on to win today but I am wondering whether some in-play value might be found if we are quick.

If the away team in Newcastle score - particularly if they score a couple early - spurs have no incentive to win. If they aren't by that point winning, would the draw and Sunderland then be available at silly prices on Betfair?

[hector62]

I did my bit by suggesting Gmac. I will leave the hedging decision up to Messers T & T.

I would like to suggest Wakefield to beat Hull KR in this afternoons rugby league game. This is a really close call so the 7/4 we get on Wakefield means that we must side with them. Hull are conceding 32 points a game and whilst Wakefields defence is not great they do have a good attacking threat. Hull struggled to beat St Helens recently and that was with an extra man for the entire 2nd half. Hull KR are also going to be without Corey Patterson who has a 4 game suspension for fighting.

£20 Wakefield to beat Hull KR @ 7/4 with Paddy Power or Bwin.

[Bad Beat]

 Sadly I didn't follow Hector on the golf. I have become a bit of a bok there and I have backed a few rugby losers and missed winners lately.

 At the risk of sounding like a broken record shouldn't a bet on Jaidee be dependent on whether we think he is value at 2/1 (he is 2/1 on Betfair by the way) and have nothing to do with any other bets previously placed on the event.

 In the long run that will be the way to make more money.

 Not hedging obviously increases variance and if we had bet more than we should have with our bankroll then we should consider. We should also obv consider hedging if the market has underated an unfashionable player who many people may not have heard of, (this is very possible), and overated a player who we see on our screens more, and who gets way more media (very possible also).

 If we consider those factors and bet Jaidee at 2/1 I will be happy, but if we are simply saying "we were clever enough to back a big-priced guy, let us give away some of our profit to random strangers on the internet just because we are scared of losing" then I will be unhappy.

 It tilts me.

[tikay]

Just a thought re today's soccerball games:

Spurs and @r2ena1 are both silly odds on to win today but I am wondering whether some in-play value might be found if we are quick.

If the away team in Newcastle score - particularly if they score a couple early - spurs have no incentive to win. If they aren't by that point winning, would the draw and Sunderland then be available at silly prices on Betfair?

The logic makes sense, but there is a good chance we are over-thinking here, exactly as some poker players are inclined to do.

Anyway, for your sake, I hope Spurs have a good day, but my loyalties - and money - sit with Wenger & Co today. In fact, Fred faces some serious liabilities on the Premier a league today, with our two remaining bets. Think we need McDowell to win to cover them, actually.

[BigAdz]

GMac never had worse than a 4 all round. Jaidee was birdie bogey merchant. Not sure of round score but imagine GMac much the better, if its worth owt?

[tikay]

I did my bit by suggesting Gmac. I will leave the hedging decision up to Messers T & T.

I would like to suggest Wakefield to beat Hull KR in this afternoons rugby league game. This is a really close call so the 7/4 we get on Wakefield means that we must side with them. Hull are conceding 32 points a game and whilst Wakefields defence is not great they do have a good attacking threat. Hull struggled to beat St Helens recently and that was with an extra man for the entire 2nd half. Hull KR are also going to be without Corey Patterson who has a 4 game suspension for fighting.

£20 Wakefield to beat Hull KR @ 7/4 with Paddy Power or Bwin.

Thanks hector, and good luck with the McDowell bet.

We are on with Paddy Power, £20 @ 7/4, Wakefield to beat Hull KR.

Details later.

ON

[Tal]

Just a thought re today's soccerball games:

Spurs and @r2ena1 are both silly odds on to win today but I am wondering whether some in-play value might be found if we are quick.

If the away team in Newcastle score - particularly if they score a couple early - spurs have no incentive to win. If they aren't by that point winning, would the draw and Sunderland then be available at silly prices on Betfair?

The logic makes sense, but there is a good chance we are over-thinking here, exactly as some poker players are inclined to do.

Anyway, for your sake, I hope Spurs have a good day, but my loyalties - and money - sit with Wenger & Co today. In fact, Fred faces some serious liabilities on the Premier a league today, with our two remaining bets. Think we need McDowell to win to cover them, actually.

I shall be roughly in this position this afternoon:

 

Thereafter, I'm doing a Rooney and not confirming my Fred future

[Karabiner]

Eighteen holes of matchplay is really a bit of a sprint and both are playing well.

I think that 2/1 Jaidee offers a little value.

[tikay]

Sadly I didn't follow Hector on the golf. I have become a bit of a bok there and I have backed a few rugby losers and missed winners lately.

 At the risk of sounding like a broken record shouldn't a bet on Jaidee be dependent on whether we think he is value at 2/1 (he is 2/1 on Betfair by the way) and have nothing to do with any other bets previously placed on the event.

 In the long run that will be the way to make more money.

 Not hedging obviously increases variance and if we had bet more than we should have with our bankroll then we should consider. We should also obv consider hedging if the market has underated an unfashionable player who many people may not have heard of, (this is very possible), and overated a player who we see on our screens more, and who gets way more media (very possible also).

 If we consider those factors and bet Jaidee at 2/1 I will be happy, but if we are simply saying "we were clever enough to back a big-priced guy, let us give away some of our profit to random strangers on the internet just because we are scared of losing" then I will be unhappy.

 It tilts me.

I really don't like the thought that it tilts you Neil, and I know you are correct....but it is a lifestyle thing, I can't help myself, even though I know it's wrong.  Safety first, look both ways before crossing the road, all that stuff.

I bet within my means off-thread, but I still remember when my wages were £5 a week, and £100 was a number beyond my imagination. Can't help myself......

I stand to clear a goodly sum today if GMac gets home, and it just feels right to lock up a bet to nothing.

Once an ice-cream, always an ice-cream.......

[Bad Beat]

 The price on Betfair has moved to around 15/8 in a very thin market. Like I said, I would have no problem with backing Jaidee if this bet is approached in the same way as any other on the thread (Is it a pricing error? Do we have specialist knowledge in this sport? Have we got fresh information that the market has not? Have we reacted better to the fresh information than the market? Is the market heavily skewed due to non-golf factors). I just don't think that is what is happening here.

 Would you still back the other fella at evs just because you can say you had a winner?

 If you are going to hedge every bet at whatever price is offered when you back something in a semi-long-term market should you have less bets? (you'll need to gain a bigger edge on the original bet to make up for the equity you plan to piss-away so you will have to abandon all bets that offer just a shade of value).

 I understand some people are less in favour of risk than others but having more -ev bets is not the way around this.

 (I am not saying this guy is a bad bet. I couldn't pick him out in a line-up and as an unfashionable player it probably is value anyway).

 Anyway, none of this is helping me. I was planning to kill myself by 11.30am and I'm all behind.

[Tal]

Turn the cricket on. That should help.


Sweaty run chase imminent

[Tal]

239 to win.

I'm off to the gym. Keep smiling, Fred.