Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Daily Report (ahead of the morning as I am in Lions watching heaven)

Loss on Month £305.67

Outstanding Bets £1,070

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&pli=1#gid=25

A disappointing day with over £226 lost

Royal Ascot continued its path of unwinding the Declaration of War gains from the first race of the meeting, with no fewer than 13 bets and all to show for it was two marginally profitable each ways and, hopefully promisingly, three free bets to utilise going forward...two from second places and one from the "No Lose Hughes" offer

The thread now has 5 free bets to use within the next seven days

Elsewhere the Romford dog recommendation came 5th of 6


Looking ahead tomorrow is another good sporting day

The final day of Royal Ascot, where so far we have Sea Siren in the Golden Jubilee at 12/1 as a free bet

The first Lions Test, where we have Australia +3 and hopefully some Milkman deliveries of Gold Top in the morning

We have a Bazzaboy boxing bet tomorrow night too

The Confederations Cup continues, Brazilian social unrest permitting, and we have Spain

England play India in the Champions Trophy final, and that could be a thriller

[TightEnd]

Thanx for the link.

The 14s understandably disappeared pretty quickly. 10s soon followed. Still think is vvvv good value, surprised it's still there tbh!

Not interested in a bet for this thread?

Nothing against it myself, 8/1 seems fair 14/1 seemed crazy

I assume tikay wouldn't have a problem with Mere putting something on with skybet, as a one off? (serious question as the thread normally doesn't use skybet because of conflict of interest)

[scotty2hatty]

Thanx for the link.

The 14s understandably disappeared pretty quickly. 10s soon followed. Still think is vvvv good value, surprised it's still there tbh!

Not interested in a bet for this thread?

Agree. How cool must it be to be able to bet on yourself?!

Got to have a token tenner at least

token max

[Doobs]

Thanx for the link.

The 14s understandably disappeared pretty quickly. 10s soon followed. Still think is vvvv good value, surprised it's still there tbh!

Not interested in a bet for this thread?

Nothing against it myself, 8/1 seems fair 14/1 seemed crazy

I assume tikay wouldn't have a problem with Mere putting something on with skybet, as a one off? (serious question as the thread normally doesn't use skybet because of conflict of interest)

I just wouldn't do it.  Even if it isn't his account, he is the beneficiary, so the reasons he stopped betting with skybet must still hold.  I'd say betting on himself feels like it can only add issues.

Given is  at a level where we are at least close to just punting, and we are only proposing a tenner, then the potential issues can't be worth it.  For the benefit of the doubt, I don't think is bad, I punted on it myself after going straight on skybet to take the 10s.

[kinboshi]

Evening Mr M.

In tonight's super league we have Castleford hosting Hull. Both teams were terrible at the start of the season but have now found some form. The points line is low for the game and I have been considering an outright bet on Castleford at just over 2-1 but I think I will be going nitty and take the 10 point handicap available. Probably the best indication for this game are Hulls results away from home against the bottom clubs, an 18-18 draw with London and a 24-18 defeat of Salford. Castleford are a better team than both of them and should not lose by more than 10 points  and may even win.

Suggest £22 Castleford +10 @ 10/11 with Betfred.

Good call Hector. But if Hull had been more clinical in the first half they could have been 20 points clear as the Cas defence was appalling. Great game for the neutral though, and you called it perfectly.

[JaffaCake]

Good work hector, creamy gold top for all

[Chompy]

Boo!

Joe B (Skybet): Hi, my name is Joe B. How may I help you?
Graham Wheldon: Hi, can you give me a price about me winning the WSOP 2013 main event?
Joe B (Skybet): I'm afraid we wouldn't generally permit people to bet on themselves, and also something of that nature would be too difficult to price up I'm afraid, sorry.

[MereNovice]

Evening Mr M.

In tonight's super league we have Castleford hosting Hull. Both teams were terrible at the start of the season but have now found some form. The points line is low for the game and I have been considering an outright bet on Castleford at just over 2-1 but I think I will be going nitty and take the 10 point handicap available. Probably the best indication for this game are Hulls results away from home against the bottom clubs, an 18-18 draw with London and a 24-18 defeat of Salford. Castleford are a better team than both of them and should not lose by more than 10 points  and may even win.

Suggest £22 Castleford +10 @ 10/11 with Betfred.

Good call Hector. But if Hull had been more clinical in the first half they could have been 20 points clear as the Cas defence was appalling. Great game for the neutral though, and you called it perfectly.

Sorry for missing this.
I'm sure that many got on.
A really terrific game to watch.

[MereNovice]

About time we had a dog bet.

Royal Romford tonight:

9.06 Trap 3 Ayamzabella  (better class than all of these, except Gaga but he's back from a layoff)  6/4 Ladbrokes  £30

9.56 Trap 1 Centurion Dolly (bit unlucky last week, plotted up in trap 1, will lead, bye bye)   9/4 Hills (massive)  £25

10.26 Trap 1 Smiler Jack  (machine round here 35.30 last December - great draw)  15/8 Hills  £25

9.24 Trap 3 Headford Caillin (final of the Maidens - only a baby Oct11 drawn in trap 3 which is a cash machine at rommers
                                      ping and lead all de way)        7/2 Fred  £15


Lee

Well done with Smiler Jack.
It looks as though I picked the wrong one to back.
Please keep the tips coming.
A little diversity is a good thing for Fred.

[MereNovice]

Can finally strike the chess bet off the Active column after Kramnik made an unfathomable blunder against the bottom seed, Andreikin:



Not gone well. Again.

Top two were both north of 20/1 IIRC. Shows there are bets out there; we just need to find them.

Can't win them all.

[MereNovice]

Thanx for the link.

The 14s understandably disappeared pretty quickly. 10s soon followed. Still think is vvvv good value, surprised it's still there tbh!

Not interested in a bet for this thread?

Nothing against it myself, 8/1 seems fair 14/1 seemed crazy

I assume tikay wouldn't have a problem with Mere putting something on with skybet, as a one off? (serious question as the thread normally doesn't use skybet because of conflict of interest)

I just wouldn't do it.  Even if it isn't his account, he is the beneficiary, so the reasons he stopped betting with skybet must still hold.  I'd say betting on himself feels like it can only add issues.

Given is  at a level where we are at least close to just punting, and we are only proposing a tenner, then the potential issues can't be worth it.  For the benefit of the doubt, I don't think is bad, I punted on it myself after going straight on skybet to take the 10s.

This summarises my feelings.
I'd love to back him even at 8/1 (which seems about right) but as it is effectively tikay's money I think that ethically we can't do it.
Really wish that I had got the 14/1 price personally though!

[MereNovice]

I won't be available during the Lions game so please bear that in mind with regard to any tips for today.

[MereNovice]

Following on from Tighty's Lions write up, I'm going the other way.

I fancy the Lions to win comfortably. Wales should have won two of the three tests last Summer and would have if Priestland hadn't been playing. With Sexton starting and Farrell to come on then I have no hesitation in betting them. Furthermore, Pocock being injured is a massive blow along with George Smith. Hooper may be a class act but he wouldn't be guaranteed a start with either of those two fit.

I think Halfpenny will slot home the kicks and at 10/1 with Ladbrokes will be a contender for Man of the Match.

My only concern is Cuthbert on the wing. He gets caught flat footed so often and allows at least one scoring chance a match. Digby Ioane, who will be opposite him tomorrow, will surely get a run at him and at 63/19? on Betfair for anytime try scorer is worth a tickle.

I'm having a tenner on Halfpenny and twenty on Ioane.

Ioane 7/2 on Betfair exchange which is better than anywhere else.
However this is his first game back after injury so I'm a little hesitant.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/australia-v-lions/anytime-tryscorer
http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=100690537&ex=2&origin=SNG

Halfpenny 10/1 for MOTM with Ladbrokes which seems out of line.
We have at least one contributor with a strong opinion on MOTM markets.
http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/lions-tour/australia-v-lions/man-of-the-match

On

SpreadEx fixed odds.

Digby Ioane £4 at 15/4 for anytime tryscorer

Australia v Lions 1st Test - Anytime Try Scorer
Digby Ioane @ 15/4
Stake: 4.00To Return: 19.00Bet ID: 749043
Your bet has been placed.
Total Stake: 4.00

I can never get a fixed odds bet of any size placed with them but thought that I'd place a token bet as they are best price.

[Rubbish2407]

It's the Lions versus the Wallabies today and I think I know what the result will be.

I'll get sacked from Woburn Safari Park.

Borrowed from twitter.

[Rubbish2407]

Not sure that it's been mentioned on here but England and Wales' U20's have reached the Junior World Championship Final. Match takes place on Sunday at 5.45pm. First time New Zealand haven't been there. England, who beat NZ in the semis are 4/11, Wales, who beat SA with a last minute try and conversion are 9/4.

I'm having a patriotic punt on Wales but have no real views. Anyone been following this tournament?