Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

Great spot with Taylor, well done

As Tal will confirm, I was calmness personified during the final

Absolutely...

You've got to tip your hat to Rob and Simon at DTD. They think of everything.

Click to see full-size image.

54.........

[Tal]

I don't think he's that old.

[Rubbish2407]

Great spot with Taylor, well done

As Tal will confirm, I was calmness personified during the final

Absolutely...

You've got to tip your hat to Rob and Simon at DTD. They think of everything.

Click to see full-size image.

54.........

6,4,5,3,2,1

[Tonji]

No idea tbh Tonji, I'm no swimmering expert, just did a bit of studying last week to find an improver at a price. Glgl if you go in.

Cordes 2nd best time in the semi, a nice improver in to the final tomorrow. Top research Chompy 

[Tonji]

Tonight's 400 freestyle final was expected to be a battle between Ledecky & Muffat.

Ledecky wins in a time of 3:59.82.

Muffat 7th at 4:07.67. I can only conclude she is way off form or carrying an injury.

The 200 freestyle later in the week. Missy Franklin has to be shorter than the 5/4 PP are quoting. What ever you can get on imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/swimming/womens-world-championships/womens-200m-freestyle/winner

[Tal]

I'm going to put my pragmatist hat on. And not just because it matches the loafers.

Rumours abound about the future of Gareth Bale. If Real offer Coentrao, Di Maria and a car-full of cash (the sun prices this up at £95m), even Daniel Levy must be tempted by that.

Bale is 5/6 to go to Madrid and 5/6 to stay at the Lane. FWIW, I wouldn't blame him for going, but I hope he gives us one more season - a season in which he won't suddenly turn into a bad player, will be playing in the highest profile league in the world and staying in London with his young family - and then hopefully we get 4th or better.

I digress.

On oddschecker, Real Madrid are currently

11/8 to win La Liga
6/1 to win the Champions League.

They have a new manager who isn't likely to cave in to pressure and has a rather noteworthy track record and will add to that one of the best attackers around. It is a frightening thought for opposition managers to be finding a way to defend against Ronaldo AND Bale.

If he goes, what impact does that have on the prices?

Are they a good team for a Fred Sweat in either market? If Fibreglass goes to Man Utd, would I be wrong in assessing Real at even money for La Liga?

Lots of ifs, but I'm curious as to whether we might be in a spot to pounce on the fact the bookies can't move the markets unless and until a deal is done (I assume the process will go in for both if Bale goes).

Thoughts?

[The Camel]

I'm going to put my pragmatist hat on. And not just because it matches the loafers.

Rumours abound about the future of Gareth Bale. If Real offer Coentrao, Di Maria and a car-full of cash (the sun prices this up at £95m), even Daniel Levy must be tempted by that.

Bale is 5/6 to go to Madrid and 5/6 to stay at the Lane. FWIW, I wouldn't blame him for going, but I hope he gives us one more season - a season in which he won't suddenly turn into a bad player, will be playing in the highest profile league in the world and staying in London with his young family - and then hopefully we get 4th or better.

I digress.

On oddschecker, Real Madrid are currently

11/8 to win La Liga
6/1 to win the Champions League.

They have a new manager who isn't likely to cave in to pressure and has a rather noteworthy track record and will add to that one of the best attackers around. It is a frightening thought for opposition managers to be finding a way to defend against Ronaldo AND Bale.

If he goes, what impact does that have on the prices?

Are they a good team for a Fred Sweat in either market? If Fibreglass goes to Man Utd, would I be wrong in assessing Real at even money for La Liga?

Lots of ifs, but I'm curious as to whether we might be in a spot to pounce on the fact the bookies can't move the markets unless and until a deal is done (I assume the process will go in for both if Bale goes).

Thoughts?

A very shrewd judge I know has had lump on real at 6/1.

(it isn't Tal btw)

[exstream]

Bale to stay 2.4 on bf.
1.46 to go.

[tikay]

Tonight's 400 freestyle final was expected to be a battle between Ledecky & Muffat.

Ledecky wins in a time of 3:59.82.

Muffat 7th at 4:07.67. I can only conclude she is way off form or carrying an injury.

The 200 freestyle later in the week. Missy Franklin has to be shorter than the 5/4 PP are quoting. What ever you can get on imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/swimming/womens-world-championships/womens-200m-freestyle/winner

Missed another, bugger!

5/6 best now. Dubai beat us to it.

[Evilpengwinz]

Was going to post this before the game vs. Sussex, but waited until afterwards.

Jackson Bird Top Aussie wicket taker @ 50/1 - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-bowler

Wickets so far:
Siddle - 11
Pattinson - 7
Harris - 7
Starc - 5
Smith - 4
Agar - 2
Watson - 1

50/1 for a reason as he's not guaranteed to get a game, but I believe that price is a bit too long.

If Jackson Bird is picked for the 3rd test then he will almost certainly take the new ball as he did in the tour game and his first couple of tests, and it'll probably be Starc who will miss out - Surely Harris plays as Australia must win, and there's been no talk of him being rested for the next game. Think there's a good chance Harris doesn't take any further part in the series if Australia lose, and if they win do they drop Bird? Probably not. Bird almost certainly plays the remainder of the series if he gets picked for this test, barring injury.

Peter Siddle has 11 wickets already, but Bird will have the advantages of:

- Being virtually unknown in Test Cricket, and to the England batsmen (See the impact Philander had when he started playing Test Cricket)
- Taking the new ball, whereas Siddle will remain first change.
- Better FC strike rate (Probably bowls a couple of overs less than Siddle in a day though)
- Possibility of Siddle being rested if Australia are 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0 down? Maybe not as I can't remember Siddle being rested before, but there's no chance Bird comes in then gets rested.

To be top Aussie wicket taker, I think Bird needs to take around 20 wickets in the series, maybe a couple more if the Aussie spinners continue being useless. Certainly possible if he plays the remaining 3 tests, picks up one or two 5-fers in that time, and picks up a few wickets in the other innings. Was really impressed by him when he played his first two tests against Sri Lanka. It's between Starc and Bird to replace Pattinson, and the 50/1 being offered by some bookmakers atm is a little bit too long to ignore. Think it's worth a couple of quid.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £235.50

Outstanding Bets £2187.60

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=27

A profit overall of £104 yesterday thanks to Phil Tayor's victory in the World Matchplay, tipped up pre-tournament at 11/4 by Bazzaboy

Elsewhere Warington lost to Hull to sink the Challenge Cup bet, who defended fiercely, in the Challenge Cup semi final. From what I saw of this  Warrington really underperformed on the day

We had a small win on Raikkonen e/w second in the Hungarian GP, and a slightly biger loss on Grosjean. Hamilton winning at 10/1 off pole was unprecedented, and completely unexpected to him, his team and alot of punters it seems. Tough sport to bet on!

Our swimming Mr Cordes advanced to the final of the 100m breaststroke in the World Swimming tonight. Second fastest, we go into the final on our man at 10/1 thanks to Mr rebuff.

The Tampa Bay Rays lost to the Yankees 6-5 in the bottom of the ninth with a blown save by the Tampa Bay closer of fairly epic proportions. Walked the lead off hitter, walked Jeter, then gave up the run to the third hitter. thank you and goodnight!

This week glorious Goodwood and no doubt offer hell awaits for us humble spreadsheet inputters!

[Tal]

Bale to stay 2.4 on bf.
1.46 to go.

I think that's an overreaction caused by the morning's reports. Levy is a pretty incredible negotiator (sometimes much to the fans' chagrin) and has form for keeping a player who's under contract.

If - and this is a big IF as we know reports from Madrid often get lost in translation - there is a £90m offer on the table, including good players, I can't see how the lad can stay in London. I wouldn't like to bet at 1.46 that this is what has happened.

Bookies are closer IMO.

[TightEnd]

Was going to post this before the game vs. Sussex, but waited until afterwards.

Jackson Bird Top Aussie wicket taker @ 50/1 - http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-bowler

Wickets so far:
Siddle - 11
Pattinson - 7
Harris - 7
Starc - 5
Smith - 4
Agar - 2
Watson - 1

50/1 for a reason as he's not guaranteed to get a game, but I believe that price is a bit too long.

If Jackson Bird is picked for the 3rd test then he will almost certainly take the new ball as he did in the tour game and his first couple of tests, and it'll probably be Starc who will miss out - Surely Harris plays as Australia must win, and there's been no talk of him being rested for the next game. Think there's a good chance Harris doesn't take any further part in the series if Australia lose, and if they win do they drop Bird? Probably not. Bird almost certainly plays the remainder of the series if he gets picked for this test, barring injury.

Peter Siddle has 11 wickets already, but Bird will have the advantages of:

- Being virtually unknown in Test Cricket, and to the England batsmen (See the impact Philander had when he started playing Test Cricket)
- Taking the new ball, whereas Siddle will remain first change.
- Better FC strike rate (Probably bowls a couple of overs less than Siddle in a day though)
- Possibility of Siddle being rested if Australia are 3-0, 3-1 or 4-0 down? Maybe not as I can't remember Siddle being rested before, but there's no chance Bird comes in then gets rested.

To be top Aussie wicket taker, I think Bird needs to take around 20 wickets in the series, maybe a couple more if the Aussie spinners continue being useless. Certainly possible if he plays the remaining 3 tests, picks up one or two 5-fers in that time, and picks up a few wickets in the other innings. Was really impressed by him when he played his first two tests against Sri Lanka. It's between Starc and Bird to replace Pattinson, and the 50/1 being offered by some bookmakers atm is a little bit too long to ignore. Think it's worth a couple of quid.

- They have to replace Pattinson

- He's no more than 50-50 to play in the 3rd test. Starc or Bird? They could pick Faulkner, so maybe its less than 50-50

- Siddle will play all 5, Harris will play if he's fit. Don't see why they would drop him if they go 3-0 down. Don't think Australian sport or International sport works that you drop Harris just because you are losing, on the premise he is made of glass. Bar Siddle all Australian bowlers are made of glass!

- Bird has to make up 11 wickets in 3 tests on Siddle when Siddle is going to take lets say a minimum of 2 a game, possibly more

So Bird has to take 18 wickets in three Tests, possibly more, to have a shot

In 18 first class matches he has 98 wickets

In two tests he has 11 wickets

He's highly rated and swings it but is he really going to take 18 wickets to Siddle's not very many in three matches where he might not even play all three? I highly doubt it.

He'll still be 50-1 Thursday morning if he is confirmed in the team. If he isn't you can ignore the tip. So wait until then I think

[Doobs]

Bale to stay 2.4 on bf.
1.46 to go.

I think that's an overreaction caused by the morning's reports. Levy is a pretty incredible negotiator (sometimes much to the fans' chagrin) and has form for keeping a player who's under contract.

If - and this is a big IF as we know reports from Madrid often get lost in translation - there is a £90m offer on the table, including good players, I can't see how the lad can stay in London. I wouldn't like to bet at 1.46 that this is what has happened.

Bookies are closer IMO.

You can lay at 1.59 and back at 1.67.  You should do at least one, though Fred only has one choice.

[Tal]

Ladbrokes go 3/1 that Bale is sold for a world record fee of over £80m.

I don't have a Ladbrokes account so can't see the terms - does it include players? - but this could be a way of making money either way.