Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Fk it, left Winged Icarus alone last night. Good shout sir, good shout. 10/1 into 4/1.

Think we need a bit more trading on horses at overnight prices tbh, go for a hundo each-way and then lay some back.

For example, Presburg can now be laid at 9. We are on at 13. If we'd had £100 each-way @ 12/1, we could now lay £80 @ 9 and £80 @ 3.2ish a place, which effectively leaves us with £20 each-way @ over 20/1.

That's a different Sam in the photo gallery...

Agree 100% with Sir Chompy. Bet365 especially are always in such a rush to be first with their prices, they have prices on several horses each day you know you can work with once the market settles.

[doubleup]

I am only here at this time of night because of my age and failing body, so I will be quickish.

I am sure the Maths is correct and value with al these guys, and for sure I will get shot down, but to me this process seems soulless.

I love the process of checking if players are in form, like the course, seeing the type of player suits the course, be it putter, driver, approach players. Then we look at time of day the guy tees off, and facto in the weather. Look at playing partners, match bets etc. last season results, peaking or going off the boil, injures, wellness, happiness etc etc etc.

I may well make far less than Doobs, and anyone else that adopts this method of attaining value, but isn't it much more pleasurable to have put in a bunch of hard work and feel that the troops you send into battle are hand picked for the above reason, rather than because a spreadsheet at a certain time makes them a bet.

In essence the final leg of each journey, when I look at oddschecker to get the best price, won't appease the Maths guys too much, but I'm pretty sure I cant be the only one that reads Fred and must think this. I bet most here derive the enjoyment from people like Chompy reasoning his way round BB, or Jaffa watching midnight baseball for years and picking out a player under the radar, or Neil finding the winner of a maiden cos the second fav has an abundance of stamina likely to be optimized by the step up in trip. The list goes on. I agree totally that the Maths has its place, but.........

The day I rely on a spreadsheet to do my betting in this way, may well be the day I actually become the most profitable, but for me it's about finding out those bits of info that people generally ignore and making up my own jigsaw.

I could go on, but you get my gist, and hope it hasn't upset anyone, that wasn't the intention.

Nite all

The thing is Adz that there's nothing to stop you doing that as well as purely looking for value.  eg I quite like Bill Haas because he's a solid US player, exactly the type that wins the PGA and because his father has played well on the course he will have a little bit of extra motivation - and lo and behold doobs "mechanical" method has him at value despite this*.



*tho doobs has gobbled up the 60s  

[horseplayer]

one major problem is thread does not have any limit to speak of with 365 who are so often the outlet of overnight choice

[Tal]

Congratulations of 4,000 insightful posts, horsey.

You can congratulate me when I get there

[Snowball]

Lol Pressburg is Hugh Taylor's second selection today! I think TFT might beat the price on both

Where do you find Taylors selections? I have him on twitter but he never puts them on there.

[horseplayer]

Congratulations of 4,000 insightful posts, horsey.

You can congratulate me when I get there

I think there have been about 2% insightful ones

Very kind Tal

[horseplayer]

Lol Pressburg is Hugh Taylor's second selection today! I think TFT might beat the price on both

Where do you find Taylors selections? I have him on twitter but he never puts them on there.

at the races website snowball

he tweets a few minutes before they go up

Useful for information only really as the prices go within 30 seconds (somebody told me they estimate the page gets 10,000 unique hits around the time he puts them up on a average day) and if you back anything he puts up you will not only get a worse price you wont have the account long regardless.

Anyway still always worth a daily read as he has some very good ideas on the game in my opinion

[BigAdz]

I think Marky and I are living proof you can back all his selections and retain a number of accounts in tact!!

[horseplayer]

I think Marky and I are living proof you can back all his selections and retain a number of accounts in tact!!

Fair play

I am only going on what he said on ATR the other week that on average the maximum time a price is there is 30 seconds

I used to think the firms were a bit gutless cutting so quick but if the number of page viewers relates to even a small percentage backing them blind they probably have little choice

[Marky147]

I think Marky and I are living proof you can back all his selections and retain a number of accounts in tact!!

Fair play

I am only going on what he said on ATR the other week that on average the maximum time a price is there is 30 seconds

I used to think the firms were a bit gutless cutting so quick but if the number of page viewers relates to even a small percentage backing them blind they probably have little choice

Yeah, Adz was referring to the account closure if you back him blind, and the prices probably aren't even there that long!

When I am backing them, I watch Twitter for the 5 minute warning and then F5 with Oddschecker open on race centre until the selection is up. I guess my penchant for next manager markets, lucky 15s etc. keeps my accounts in good shape

[horseplayer]

I think Marky and I are living proof you can back all his selections and retain a number of accounts in tact!!

Fair play

I am only going on what he said on ATR the other week that on average the maximum time a price is there is 30 seconds

I used to think the firms were a bit gutless cutting so quick but if the number of page viewers relates to even a small percentage backing them blind they probably have little choice

Yeah, Adz was referring to the account closure if you back him blind, and the prices probably aren't even there that long!

When I am backing them, I watch Twitter for the 5 minute warning and then F5 with Oddschecker open on race centre until the selection is up. I guess my penchant for next manager markets, lucky 15s etc. keeps my accounts in good shape

even after lord kenneth of the jacket?

[T_Mar]

Based on bobby's comments about Day possibly not being a 100%, and that putting might not be a key factor this week (I interpreted this to mean ball striking more important) I had a look at some of the 72 hole match bets...

Dufner is 10/11 to beat Day with sportingbet (not sure if you can bet with them) but seems like could be a bet?

They are in opposite sides of the draw, and although not much in it, looks like early today / late tomorrow is slightly better weather wise (going on met office site) which is in Dufners favour

outright prices on BF are Dufner 40 and Day 55

Thoughts anyone?

[Marky147]

I think Marky and I are living proof you can back all his selections and retain a number of accounts in tact!!

Fair play

I am only going on what he said on ATR the other week that on average the maximum time a price is there is 30 seconds

I used to think the firms were a bit gutless cutting so quick but if the number of page viewers relates to even a small percentage backing them blind they probably have little choice

Yeah, Adz was referring to the account closure if you back him blind, and the prices probably aren't even there that long!

When I am backing them, I watch Twitter for the 5 minute warning and then F5 with Oddschecker open on race centre until the selection is up. I guess my penchant for next manager markets, lucky 15s etc. keeps my accounts in good shape

even after lord kenneth of the jacket?

I was on him over about 5 sites, I also backed a couple of others as savers too which no doubt helped.

[bobby1]

I've run out of time but did mean to post on the golf, I was worried for the early starters today as there was an lot of rain fcast overnight ( it did rain but has stopped now), going out on a soft course that's playing longer etc and there was a chance of rain again 2morrow afternoon which could have been the double bubble for one side. The rain 2morrow is off the fcast for now tho so might just be a small disadvantage this morning. I fancied a few players that were all mentioned here and well tipped up anyway, thought Stenny  and Duff were likely to go well but out early. Only bet I had in the end was Bo Van Pelt ew at 150/1 tho I halved it coz he is out early too coz he hits it long and accurate but his putting has been v poor this year, which kills you when its playing easy and doesn't when you can hit fws and greens on tough courses.

The European Tour ‏@European_Tour 3m

Big storms and lots of rain overnight at Oak Hill but we're still set to start on time at 0710 local time. Here we go! #USPGA
 
gl everyone.

[JaffaCake]

I am only here at this time of night because of my age and failing body, so I will be quickish.

I am sure the Maths is correct and value with al these guys, and for sure I will get shot down, but to me this process seems soulless.

I love the process of checking if players are in form, like the course, seeing the type of player suits the course, be it putter, driver, approach players. Then we look at time of day the guy tees off, and facto in the weather. Look at playing partners, match bets etc. last season results, peaking or going off the boil, injures, wellness, happiness etc etc etc.

I may well make far less than Doobs, and anyone else that adopts this method of attaining value, but isn't it much more pleasurable to have put in a bunch of hard work and feel that the troops you send into battle are hand picked for the above reason, rather than because a spreadsheet at a certain time makes them a bet.

In essence the final leg of each journey, when I look at oddschecker to get the best price, won't appease the Maths guys too much, but I'm pretty sure I cant be the only one that reads Fred and must think this. I bet most here derive the enjoyment from people like Chompy reasoning his way round BB, or Jaffa watching midnight baseball for years and picking out a player under the radar, or Neil finding the winner of a maiden cos the second fav has an abundance of stamina likely to be optimized by the step up in trip. The list goes on. I agree totally that the Maths has its place, but.........

The day I rely on a spreadsheet to do my betting in this way, may well be the day I actually become the most profitable, but for me it's about finding out those bits of info that people generally ignore and making up my own jigsaw.

I could go on, but you get my gist, and hope it hasn't upset anyone, that wasn't the intention.

Nite all

The thing is Adz that there's nothing to stop you doing that as well as purely looking for value.  eg I quite like Bill Haas because he's a solid US player, exactly the type that wins the PGA and because his father has played well on the course he will have a little bit of extra motivation - and lo and behold doobs "mechanical" method has him at value despite this*.



*tho doobs has gobbled up the 60s  

Agree with doubleup here. Can see Adam's stand point and agree, just feeding numbers into a spready takes away the romance of gambling (good to see he hasn't realised I watched basketball, not baseball, know less that teeks on rounders). If we're just feeding numbers in and waiting for an answer, we may as well be playing currency markets, oil futures or anything else, tho I guess u still get the sweat of watching the golf or whatever knowing you're rooting for one of them.

But as double said, and as I tried to allude to earlier in the week, surely a combo of maths and 'feel' like poker is the best way. So say that list of 10 doobs put up is spat our by his spready. Then, as he's openly said, surely the guys with the golf knowledge, tee times, course suitability etc, can add to that by saying these 4 are the best bets as the course suits or whatever. Similarly, if Adz is doing his own analysis, coming up with a handful of bets and then realising one or two of them are on his spready of value punts means they should be his bigger bets right?

Not sure backing a portfolio of 10 just on value is the best way forward, esp as with these offers we could be backing 20 or 30 for value reasons. It takes away some of the fun as Adz said. But if we have maths reasons and then we have analysis reasons too, we have some great bets which are value too.

The only negative I see to that is some of the reasons our analysis makes them a bet may be in the price so affects the maths, what's the way round this, or do we not need to? Maybe we should have a fantasy golf challenge for the Majors next year where we all get a notional £100 to start with and we can see how well the value, maths, and analysis guys do and why. As long as it's all in good heart, understanding of each others methods without being critical and fun, the spirit of Fred remains