Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

[T_Mar]

I've run out of time but did mean to post on the golf, I was worried for the early starters today as there was an lot of rain fcast overnight ( it did rain but has stopped now), going out on a soft course that's playing longer etc and there was a chance of rain again 2morrow afternoon which could have been the double bubble for one side. The rain 2morrow is off the fcast for now tho so might just be a small disadvantage this morning. I fancied a few players that were all mentioned here and well tipped up anyway, thought Stenny  and Duff were likely to go well but out early. Only bet I had in the end was Bo Van Pelt ew at 150/1 tho I halved it coz he is out early too coz he hits it long and accurate but his putting has been v poor this year, which kills you when its playing easy and doesn't when you can hit fws and greens on tough courses.

The European Tour ‏@European_Tour 3m

Big storms and lots of rain overnight at Oak Hill but we're still set to start on time at 0710 local time. Here we go! #USPGA
 
gl everyone.

This answers the question about which side of the draw is best! I thought it might have been the other way around according to the forecast I saw, oh well

[Tal]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield!  

Community Shield should be a good game if Sam Tomkins is fit for Wigan.

[RickBFA]

Perhaps Tikay you would get a view on this bet for saturday.

Sheff Wed play Burnley on saturday. Burnley are best price 13/5 on oddschecker.

Wednesday have had a poor pre season with few signings. Whilst Wednesday on paper did OK at QPR last saturday, if it wasnt for Kirkland making 4 top draw saves and poor finishing from QPR it could have ended 4-1 (I watched that game). I'm a Wednesday fan.

Wednesday have lost all 4 recognised full backs to injury (Buxton and Lee at right back, Reda Johnson and Mattock at left back) and look vunerable down both flanks.

Jermaine Johnson was a match winner for Wednesday in the second half of last season and wont play because he got sent off at Rotherham in mid week, Wednesday were woeful in that game.

I think 13/5 is too big on Burnley who cruised to a 4-0 win in midweek.

Recommend considering £20 bet on a Burnley win.

[TightEnd]

Fourth Test Tomorrow

Riverside Durham is traditionally bowler friendly

No first class side innings has been higher than 267

Ground runs alongside River Wear, is on water table and drainage is not as good as the other test grounds (only 4 Tests ever at this ground, all produced results and none lasted 300 overs)

This makes the ground seamer friendly (Graham Onions at Durham, notably)

Would expect the Test pitch to be as good as they can make it but the weather has been mixed

BOTH sides are stronger in bowling than batting.

Anderson plus two of Tremlett/Onions/Bresnan and Broad should return to form on a more balanced pitch than Old Trafford. We know the Australian left handers struggle against Swann as our back up, and we have DRS eccentricity as a final back up.

Shouldn't be a match where the toss matters so much, and it might be a bowl first pitch

Australian first innings runs priced around a pivot point of 280.5. So Australia have to score the highest score on the ground this year against the English seam attack

I'll take the unders please

Recommendation £60 Australian Innings runs Under 280.5 5/6 Paddy Power

 

[Tal]

Tal's comedy question of the week for Mr TightEnd:

On what basis has Sir Padraig of Power set the line at 280.5, given that the wicket hasn't yielded that many runs and england has the best bowling attack in the world on a pitch with conditions like this? Seems so elementary a mistake I'm wondering why.

Yes, there was a big total last time, but that was a hardly comparable Old Trafford wicket and one huge skipper innings pulling the rest with him. More likely an anomoly than a reliable stat, you'd think.

Have the bookies set the line high because they are taking so much money on the overs? BadBeat's not-nearly-oft-enough-trotted explanation of bookies pushing lines to adjust for the liability, rather than because of actual estimate of true price (one of these being splitting the handle?)?

Not convinced that would happen already.

Help!

[TightEnd]

Durham bid an enormous amount to win the test, and it has affected them greatly (no overseas pro this year for example)

the counter argument is that because of this they will do their utmost to prepare a pitch that will last five days, and maximise their revenue from tickets (refunds for later days if its over in three/four days)

No idea if Mr Power is factoring that in, but on a pitch that should be reasonably fair to bat and ball, I'll take the various technical deficiencies of the batsmen over anything else.

I think its a slightly lazy price taking the Old Trafford performance (on a pitch resembling a road) and bumping the spread up a little 

If you look at the Aussie top 6 you've got Clarke, Rogers and maybe Watson who will be competitive whatever the wicket. Can't say I'd want Smith, Khawaja or Warner to bat for my life against the moving ball.

[Chompy]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

Don't know how set these things are but wouldn't the time being dedicated to the Community Shield be better spent looking deeper into Leagues One and Two? 4/1 and 5/1 the field respectively and both only one game in.

[Tal]

So, you'd put the line nearer... 270.5?

[TightEnd]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

Don't know how set these things are but wouldn't the time being dedicated to the Community Shield be better spent looking deeper into Leagues One and Two? 4/1 and 5/1 the field respectively and both only one game in.

I hope so

I have 50-1 and 33-1 tips for Leagues 1 and 2 (handicap equivalents too) lined up should the subject come up

think there are several interesting situations in both divisions with Wolves and Fleetwood short and skewing things a bit

[TightEnd]

So, you'd put the line nearer... 270.5?

260 odd?

Don't see much in that top six that says that if Clarke fails, there are many who will build long innings, too many dashers.

[TightEnd]

Tomorrow's pitch, with player attached

Looks to be a bit green

No rain forecast til Satuday

Click to see full-size image.

I think its a two way bet. If Australia bat first then its a bit green. If they bat second it could be a) in worse weather and b) under scorebaord pressure if we're all reading it wrong and  England put a score up

[Tal]

So, you'd put the line nearer... 270.5?

260 odd?

Don't see much in that top six that says that if Clarke fails, there are many who will build long innings, too many dashers.

The England side is more balanced in that respect with Root, Trott and Cook more orthodox and patient and then with shotmakers and pressers elsewhere.

I'm persuaded by your reasoning. Seemed like a good one to challenge, though, with such a disparity.

[Chompy]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

Don't know how set these things are but wouldn't the time being dedicated to the Community Shield be better spent looking deeper into Leagues One and Two? 4/1 and 5/1 the field respectively and both only one game in.

I hope so

I have 50-1 and 33-1 tips for Leagues 1 and 2 (handicap equivalents too) lined up should the subject come up

think there are several interesting situations in both divisions with Wolves and Fleetwood short and skewing things a bit

Latest rumour is fatty Tomlin to Palace for £3.5m. Who knows whether there's any truth in it though. Nobody cares about the Community Shield.

[BigAdz]

Early PGA update

Stricker -2(7)
Dufner  -1(7)
Sterne  -1(6)
Van pelt +4(6)