Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

Durham bid an enormous amount to win the test, and it has affected them greatly (no overseas pro this year for example)

the counter argument is that because of this they will do their utmost to prepare a pitch that will last five days, and maximise their revenue from tickets (refunds for later days if its over in three/four days)

No idea if Mr Power is factoring that in, but on a pitch that should be reasonably fair to bat and ball, I'll take the various technical deficiencies of the batsmen over anything else.

I think its a slightly lazy price taking the Old Trafford performance (on a pitch resembling a road) and bumping the spread up a little 

If you look at the Aussie top 6 you've got Clarke, Rogers and maybe Watson who will be competitive whatever the wicket. Can't say I'd want Smith, Khawaja or Warner to bat for my life against the moving ball.

This looks an absolutely cracking bet.

[tikay]

Afternoon.

Been a bit pre-occupied today, sio I've missed a lot of stuff. Bound to be vwinners......

Am off again from 6pm until Midnight this evening, but I'll try & catch up before then.

[tikay]

Presburg (3.50 Brighton) went off @ 8/1, & appears to have finished better thsn 5th but worse than 3rd.

All aboard Winged Icarus @ Southwell then. Save us John!

[tikay]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

Don't know how set these things are but wouldn't the time being dedicated to the Community Shield be better spent looking deeper into Leagues One and Two? 4/1 and 5/1 the field respectively and both only one game in.

Hour One (8pm- 9pm) will be


•   TRANSFERS discussion
Bale, Rooney, Suarez

•   Premier League Outright

•   Premier league Top 4

•   Man UTD Specials

•   Man City Specials

•   Chelsea Specials

•   Arsenal Specials

•   Top Goal scorer

•   Relegation

•   Manager sack special

•   Champions League

•   FA Cup


Hour Two (9pm - 10pm) will be.....

•   Championship Outright

•   QPR in focus

•   Reading in focus

•   Wigan in focus

•   Championship Top Scorer

•   Relegation

•   League 1 Outright

•   League 2 Outright

•   Community Shield in detail
 Correct score, 1st scorer etc


So, if you have any questions for our BETTING EXPERT, e-Mail "SkyOpen@bskyb.com"

If it gets past Orford, it'll get read out.

Please note our e-Mail system blocks e-Mails from the Fens, or anyone named "Chompy-imo" or "G.Wheldon, Author, Top Selling Book Bloke but Big Brother Bottler Bloke".

[tikay]

Durham bid an enormous amount to win the test, and it has affected them greatly (no overseas pro this year for example)

the counter argument is that because of this they will do their utmost to prepare a pitch that will last five days, and maximise their revenue from tickets (refunds for later days if its over in three/four days)

No idea if Mr Power is factoring that in, but on a pitch that should be reasonably fair to bat and ball, I'll take the various technical deficiencies of the batsmen over anything else.

I think its a slightly lazy price taking the Old Trafford performance (on a pitch resembling a road) and bumping the spread up a little 

If you look at the Aussie top 6 you've got Clarke, Rogers and maybe Watson who will be competitive whatever the wicket. Can't say I'd want Smith, Khawaja or Warner to bat for my life against the moving ball.

This looks an absolutely cracking bet.

Doubtless you are right, but we were Restricted to a grand total of £23.64.

Details & confirmation in due course.

[Tal]

Afraid to say I'll be in the gym during that first hour, so you won't be able to 'phone me for my view on the Bale situation. My relentless scanning of News Now for reports and opinions will need to remain untelevised for the time being.

Perez was quoted today as saying "€100m seems a lot to me" but that he wouldn't discuss specific players "out of respect". That is quite a change of rhetoric.

[tikay]

Perhaps Tikay you would get a view on this bet for saturday.

Sheff Wed play Burnley on saturday. Burnley are best price 13/5 on oddschecker.

Wednesday have had a poor pre season with few signings. Whilst Wednesday on paper did OK at QPR last saturday, if it wasnt for Kirkland making 4 top draw saves and poor finishing from QPR it could have ended 4-1 (I watched that game). I'm a Wednesday fan.

Wednesday have lost all 4 recognised full backs to injury (Buxton and Lee at right back, Reda Johnson and Mattock at left back) and look vunerable down both flanks.

Jermaine Johnson was a match winner for Wednesday in the second half of last season and wont play because he got sent off at Rotherham in mid week, Wednesday were woeful in that game.

I think 13/5 is too big on Burnley who cruised to a 4-0 win in midweek.

Recommend considering £20 bet on a Burnley win.

Thanks Rick, & welcome back to Fred.

We like your stuff - you've had 6 bets with us, & whilst that is a woefully inadequate sample size, you generally spot good value, & you have an ROI of 19% so far.

I watched Wednesday the other night. Woeful Wednesday, I'm afraid, & I sense a tough season for them, & more likely, Mr Jones.

I need some feedback though, because the one problem I have is this.....

Every bookmaker is quoting 5/2, or thereabouts, which rather suggests they have all missed something, or we have. If it were really good value @ 5/2, it would all be gone now, would it not? Betfair are very marginally worse than 5/2, but I don't believe their market has formed properly yet. 


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/sheffield-wednesday-v-burnley/winner

Not averse to the bet, in fact I like it, but something is not adding up here.

Don't let me forget this, I like it, but we need some other views too, please. 

[LeedsRhodesy]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

Don't know how set these things are but wouldn't the time being dedicated to the Community Shield be better spent looking deeper into Leagues One and Two? 4/1 and 5/1 the field respectively and both only one game in.

Hour One (8pm- 9pm) will be


•   TRANSFERS discussion
Bale, Rooney, Suarez

•   Premier League Outright

•   Premier league Top 4

•   Man UTD Specials

•   Man City Specials

•   Chelsea Specials

•   Arsenal Specials

•   Top Goal scorer

•   Relegation

•   Manager sack special

•   Champions League

•   FA Cup


Hour Two (9pm - 10pm) will be.....

•   Championship Outright

•   QPR in focus

•   Reading in focus

•   Wigan in focus

•   Championship Top Scorer

•   Relegation

•   League 1 Outright

•   League 2 Outright

•   Community Shield in detail
 Correct score, 1st scorer etc


So, if you have any questions for our BETTING EXPERT, e-Mail "SkyOpen@bskyb.com"

If it gets past Orford, it'll get read out.

Please note our e-Mail system blocks e-Mails from the Fens, or anyone named "Chompy-imo" or "G.Wheldon, Author, Top Selling Book Bloke but Big Brother Bottler Bloke".

Can I watch this on sky go

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight's Co-op rugby league sees 2nd from bottom Swinton play 3rd from bottom York with the threat of relegation hovering over both teams. This should be a defence dominated game, with bad teams scared of losing rather than trying to win. The points quote of 49.5 is  too high so I suggest we go for a nitty low bet.

Suggest under 49.5 points £24 @ 5/6 with Coral, Betvictor, Ladbrokes.

[tikay]

Channel 861 tonight

8pm-10pm – Football Betting Forum – A look ahead to the 2013/14 football season, with the main focus being the Barclays Premier League, Champions league, Sky Bet Championship and this weekend’s Community Shield.

with "football betting stat man" Chris Spicer, betting expert Tony Kendall and.....yours truly

Research done, though I was struggling to get too enthused about the Community Shield! 

Don't know how set these things are but wouldn't the time being dedicated to the Community Shield be better spent looking deeper into Leagues One and Two? 4/1 and 5/1 the field respectively and both only one game in.

Hour One (8pm- 9pm) will be


•   TRANSFERS discussion
Bale, Rooney, Suarez

•   Premier League Outright

•   Premier league Top 4

•   Man UTD Specials

•   Man City Specials

•   Chelsea Specials

•   Arsenal Specials

•   Top Goal scorer

•   Relegation

•   Manager sack special

•   Champions League

•   FA Cup


Hour Two (9pm - 10pm) will be.....

•   Championship Outright

•   QPR in focus

•   Reading in focus

•   Wigan in focus

•   Championship Top Scorer

•   Relegation

•   League 1 Outright

•   League 2 Outright

•   Community Shield in detail
 Correct score, 1st scorer etc


So, if you have any questions for our BETTING EXPERT, e-Mail "SkyOpen@bskyb.com"

If it gets past Orford, it'll get read out.

Please note our e-Mail system blocks e-Mails from the Fens, or anyone named "Chompy-imo" or "G.Wheldon, Author, Top Selling Book Bloke but Big Brother Bottler Bloke".

Can I watch this on sky go

Not sure, but you can watch it Online.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Tonight's Co-op rugby league sees 2nd from bottom Swinton play 3rd from bottom York with the threat of relegation hovering over both teams. This should be a defence dominated game, with bad teams scared of losing rather than trying to win. The points quote of 49.5 is  too high so I suggest we go for a nitty low bet.

Suggest under 49.5 points £24 @ 5/6 with Coral, Betvictor, Ladbrokes.

Evening h.

How are those vegetable things you were trying to grow (fennel?) getting on now?

We are on, we have £24 @ 5/6,  BetVictor, UNDER 49.5, Swinton v York

Gotta love the Co-Op. I can still remember my Nan's dividend number - I use it as a Password these days.

ON


Swinton v York Under 49.5 (Total Points U/O)Odds: 5/6 Stake: 24.00Possible Return:  44.00

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

I've run out of time but did mean to post on the golf, I was worried for the early starters today as there was an lot of rain fcast overnight ( it did rain but has stopped now), going out on a soft course that's playing longer etc and there was a chance of rain again 2morrow afternoon which could have been the double bubble for one side. The rain 2morrow is off the fcast for now tho so might just be a small disadvantage this morning. I fancied a few players that were all mentioned here and well tipped up anyway, thought Stenny  and Duff were likely to go well but out early. Only bet I had in the end was Bo Van Pelt ew at 150/1 tho I halved it coz he is out early too coz he hits it long and accurate but his putting has been v poor this year, which kills you when its playing easy and doesn't when you can hit fws and greens on tough courses.

The European Tour ‏@European_Tour 3m

Big storms and lots of rain overnight at Oak Hill but we're still set to start on time at 0710 local time. Here we go! #USPGA
 
gl everyone.

Thanks Phil, especially for the weather stuff.

Unfortunately, I've been rather waylaid elsewhere today, & not able to Post, so we have not placed any more golf bets. I did some stuff last night, off-thread, though.

[tikay]

Don't forget we have Essex in the T20 tonight.

We have £25 @ 12/1 outright. 

[tikay]

Tonight's run of the spreadsheet produced the following.

Brandt Snedeker 28/1 Paddy Power (new)
Justin Rose 28/1 general (new)
Keegan Bradley 35/1 PP, Coral (new)
Jason Day 50/1 Coral, WHill, Boyles (new) (carrying an injury)
Steve Stricker 50/1 general (carrying an injury)
Sergio Garcia 55/1 bet365/PP
Bill Haas 60/1 PP (new)
Bubba Watson 66/1 Ladbrokes/Coral
Webb Simpson 60/1 Betfred or 66/1 General (new)
Jim Furyk 70/1 Betfred
Jordan Speith 90/1 PP/Boyles (new)
Hideki Matsuyama 100/1 Boyles/BetVic/PP/Coral (new)
Ryan Moore 110/1 bet365 or 100/1 Betfred

Note I stopped at 100/1 tonight to avoid too many outsiders.

So we have 8 new ones, of which Bobby1 says Jason Day is carrying an injury.  If we ignore Day, we are left with 7 new ones.

I think we should back
Brandt Snedeker 28/1 Paddy Power (new)
Justin Rose 28/1 general (new)
Keegan Bradley 35/1 PP, Coral (new)
maybe a tenner each way each?

Bill Haas 60/1 PP (new)
Webb Simpson 60/1 Betfred or 66/1 General (new)
Hideki Matsuyama 100/1 Boyles/BetVic/PP/Coral (new)
Jordan Speith 90/1 PP/Boyles (new)
maybe a fiver each way each?

IF YOU MISS ANY PRICE, DO NOT BET.

Bobby1 said the following about Jason Day: "Jason Day is the interesting one tho, he wasn't practising much after The Open due to a wrist niggle he had since the US Open, he was playing ok but not great. Last week he was complaining of a shoulder/upper arm niggle on the same side and was talking about a tissue injury there. He played poorly last week too. ".  That sounds like the sort of bet you should possibly avoid, but I mug punted anyway on half stakes.

FWIW Stenson is very close (a couple of percent below the bar I set) at 25/1 in a few places and was tipped up a couple of times earlier (including by Dubai).  For clarity, I backed him at 28/1 the other day.

If you don't want to back these I understand, though I think it is an error.

I was too late to sort these Doobs, even assuming the prices were still available, as I never got Online (to Post, & bet) until around 4pm.

I need to watch the golf with my eyes closed now, the extra list is bound to scoop.....

[horseplayer]

I noticed last night Notts County had another centre back sent off

This now means both first choice centre halves are suspended for the visit of Chompy's free scoring mob on Saturday

Does this turn 6-4 from the right price to a good one?


cheers

bumped for views