Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Bayern conceded 18 league goals last season.
22 the season before that.
1.86 for a clean sheet tonight.
What's the 'correct odds'?
Is 1.86 good or bad?

Bear in mind their away record was abnormally good last season. At home they kept clean sheets in 10/19 games.

Personally I came here to tip BTTS=yes in the game @2.1 ( i make it a 1.7 shot).

This doesn't take into consideration the Pep factor which I believe is on our favour. Pep is going back to his Barcelona roots by buying more midfielders, not playing an out and out striker and playing Martinez a DCM at CB. Fyi last season Barca kept 9 clean sheets in 38 La Liga matches.

Thanks.

If you hurry, you can get 2.2 with BWin - I just did.

Details later, but we are on, modestly.

[Doobs]

Sam now clear fave for BB, Gina on the drift.....but all the money is for Dexter. How much does Fred win if Dexter is victorious? Any Chompy's about?

Looks like this morning was the last trip to the supermarket for a while.  Kids going to be on gruel if team maths don't come good on Sunday.

Have faith, we are in terrific shape.

Furyk's swing remains at textbook immaculate as ever.

I think we are on the right side of variance

Furyk is now 18/1 (from 70/1)
Kuchar 25/1 (from 33/1)
Stricker still around 50/1
Casey 55/1 (from 150/1)
Jimenez 100/1 (from 150/1)
Garcia still around 55/1

Not so good Bubba Watson who is friendless at 270/1 (from 55/1).  You can add Sterne, Moore and English to Team Friendless.

Team Rebuff aren't doing so great either, though Jason Day is doing OK for Team Crock.

Of the ones that I am on that got cut in price before the first post, Adam Scott isn't doing so badly  For completeness, those that I have that didn't make the first list or team rebuff are Stenson, Poulter, Cabrera, Kaymer, Dustin Johnson, Hoffman, Chris Wood, Lingmerth and Merrick.

[Chompy]

I'm getting very close to backing Gina again. The BB markets are driven by £2 merchants on Betfair these days and, as often as not, are incorrect. Less than half a million has been matched this series and a lot of that is back-and-forth between the same bunch.

Josie was still around 4/1 with a couple of weeks left in her series. Third favourite as well, behind that orange Corin thing and Sam Pepper. She was a similar case to Gina, very volatile and with some big price swings.

What she did have, though, was an army of die-hard fans and a lot of air time. Exactly like Gina. And exactly like Aaron.

Sam and Dexter are this year's Corin and Pepper. Sam is favourite by default but it's laughable that he's odds on. Dexter's price has collapsed because it's laughable that Sam is odds-on and everyone wants to find one to beat Gina.

Again last night it was pretty much two hours of Gina. She had some tasty arguments with Hazel but she's always been like that. She's always been proved right in picking her targets too. And she'll be proved right again as Hazel will be kicked out tonight to a chorus of boos.

After Hazel goes Queen Gina will be all happy again. And will still get all the coverage. Just waiting for that magic 3/1 figure...

[Tal]

The BB markets are driven by £2 merchants on Betfair these days and, as often as not, are incorrect.


The wisdom of the crowd principle doesn't apply in Big Brother? Sounds...plausible...

[horseplayer]

did not back the unders

and did not have my now traditional Lyon top wicket taker bet this series


going well!

[Tal]

Have to question England's tactics with the bat. Once again, getting in and giving the wicket away seems to be the M.O. England likely 80 short, even on a pitch that seems tough to score on when the ball is soft.

If Broad bowls a lot of short stuff, rather than simple line and length, I'll be getting mighty cross.

[hector62]

Evening Mr T.

Tonights super league action sees Wigan host Huddersfield in a top of the table clash. Without O'Loughlin Wigan will struggle to win this but I think they will prevail by 1-12 points. I find it hard to believe that Wigan by over 12 points is a shorter price than 1-12 but it is.

Suggest £15 Wigan by 1-12 points @ 15/8 with Paddy, Ladbrokes, Corals, Hills.

I also think we should have a smaller investment on Salford to beat Leeds. Leeds have nothing to play for tonight and should be saving themselves for the playoffs. I can't have Salford at bigger than 5-1 and we can get 8's.

Suggest £10 Salford @ 8-1 with Boyle, Coral. sportingbet.

[TheDazzler]

Evening Mr T.

Tonights super league action sees Wigan host Huddersfield in a top of the table clash. Without O'Loughlin Wigan will struggle to win this but I think they will prevail by 1-12 points. I find it hard to believe that Wigan by over 12 points is a shorter price than 1-12 but it is.

Suggest £15 Wigan by 1-12 points @ 15/8 with Paddy, Ladbrokes, Corals, Hills.

I also think we should have a smaller investment on Salford to beat Leeds. Leeds have nothing to play for tonight and should be saving themselves for the playoffs. I can't have Salford at bigger than 5-1 and we can get 8's.

Suggest £10 Salford @ 8-1 with Boyle, Coral. sportingbet.

You can get 11.5 Salford on Betfair.

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

Tonights super league action sees Wigan host Huddersfield in a top of the table clash. Without O'Loughlin Wigan will struggle to win this but I think they will prevail by 1-12 points. I find it hard to believe that Wigan by over 12 points is a shorter price than 1-12 but it is.

Suggest £15 Wigan by 1-12 points @ 15/8 with Paddy, Ladbrokes, Corals, Hills.

I also think we should have a smaller investment on Salford to beat Leeds. Leeds have nothing to play for tonight and should be saving themselves for the playoffs. I can't have Salford at bigger than 5-1 and we can get 8's.

Suggest £10 Salford @ 8-1 with Boyle, Coral. sportingbet.

Thanks H.

My gardener has come round for tea, so am a bit pre-occupied this evening, and will confirm everything later, or in the morning.

Both bets safely on.

The Leeds bet is with Coral, and we got 2/1, so that is good, a bit better than suggested.

The Salford bet we have with Betfair, at 10.5, which is 19/2, so that is also a bonus.

ON

* I had actually placed the Salford bet with Coral @ 8/1, then saw Dazzlers post, so I have kept that Corals one off-thread, in the Misclick File.

[Doobs]

Evening Mr T.

Tonights super league action sees Wigan host Huddersfield in a top of the table clash. Without O'Loughlin Wigan will struggle to win this but I think they will prevail by 1-12 points. I find it hard to believe that Wigan by over 12 points is a shorter price than 1-12 but it is.

Suggest £15 Wigan by 1-12 points @ 15/8 with Paddy, Ladbrokes, Corals, Hills.

I also think we should have a smaller investment on Salford to beat Leeds. Leeds have nothing to play for tonight and should be saving themselves for the playoffs. I can't have Salford at bigger than 5-1 and we can get 8's.

Suggest £10 Salford @ 8-1 with Boyle, Coral. sportingbet.

Thanks H.

My gardener has come round for tea, so am a bit pre-occupied this evening, and will confirm everything later, or in the morning.

Both bets safely on.

The Leeds bet is with Coral, and we got 2/1, so that is good, a bit better than suggested.

The Salford bet we have with Betfair, at 10.5, which is 19/2, so that is also a bonus.

ON

* I had actually placed the Salford bet with Coral @ 8/1, then saw Dazzlers post, so I have kept that Corals one off-thread, in the Misclick File.

Can a bet placed at the odds suggested by somebody count as a misclick? 

As an aside I think all misclicks should count for profit or loss, it is all part of betting.  Maybe put them down to thread or something like it. 

[scotty2hatty]

Evening Mr T.

Tonights super league action sees Wigan host Huddersfield in a top of the table clash. Without O'Loughlin Wigan will struggle to win this but I think they will prevail by 1-12 points. I find it hard to believe that Wigan by over 12 points is a shorter price than 1-12 but it is.

Suggest £15 Wigan by 1-12 points @ 15/8 with Paddy, Ladbrokes, Corals, Hills.

I also think we should have a smaller investment on Salford to beat Leeds. Leeds have nothing to play for tonight and should be saving themselves for the playoffs. I can't have Salford at bigger than 5-1 and we can get 8's.

Suggest £10 Salford @ 8-1 with Boyle, Coral. sportingbet.

Thanks H.

My gardener has come round for tea, so am a bit pre-occupied this evening, and will confirm everything later, or in the morning.

Both bets safely on.

The Leeds bet is with Coral, and we got 2/1, so that is good, a bit better than suggested.

The Salford bet we have with Betfair, at 10.5, which is 19/2, so that is also a bonus.

ON

* I had actually placed the Salford bet with Coral @ 8/1, then saw Dazzlers post, so I have kept that Corals one off-thread, in the Misclick File.

Not a misclick surely?

[scotty2hatty]

Doobs beat me to it. Don't agree with all misclicks counting though, if so we should include all of tikay's off-thread betting too. The idea is that he places bets that are recommended.

[TightEnd]

Its not a misclick, the 8/1 coral should be on thread, the 10.5 Betfair off thread. Or both on thread, but the first bet was placed as recommended

[tikay]

No, not a technical misclick as such, but we have a sensible obligation to get the best price we can for an accepted bet. I just filed it under Misclick for want of a better expression.

I initially got the bet on with Coral @ 8/1, then saw Dazzy's Post, so just thought it made sense to use Betty, to save someone saying "you coulda got better".

As hector felt the right price was 6/1, I was still happy to hold the 8/1 ticket off-thread.

It makes no net difference to me, of course, except I've bet £20, not £10. Win more, or lose more.

[kinboshi]

No Sam Tomkins tonight for Wigan - so with O'Loughlin, Smith and Flower missing already his presence was needed.

Wouldn't be confident backing Wigan now.  Going to be very close.