Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

il have £1000/400 and u got £1000/250?

I'll have that if redarmi doesn't want to do it..

Otherwise half with you and half with Stu.

[TheDazzler]

I posted a couple of weeks ago that I was very keen on Arsenal @ 12/1 e/w.
This was when it looked like Higuain was likely. Then it looked like Suarez. Now I'm not sure who they are going to get but Suarez doesn't look likely to me. Even with no one, I still like my 12/1.
If they get Suarez or another big striker signing, I think the 11/1 is excellent. There will be very little between any of the top 4 in that scenario.

Personally I think the e/w bet is best as I think they can win. Basically I agree with Red, I just think Arsenal are very under rated.

In the top goalscorer market, I like Walcott @ 40/1 e/w (also 47/1 on Betfair but that's win only).
Unfortunately this bet is better if Arsenal don't sign a striker, which obviously hurts the Arsenal e/w bet. Hard to win both but possible.

I would say Red is somewhat underestimating Pool though. They aren't that bad and even if they lose Suarez, I just can't see them finishing bottom half. The decline would be massive. Yes, they were miles off the top last year but they were 12 points ahead of 8th, 17 points ahead of 11th/bottom half.
The league is split into a number of 'mini leagues' imo.
There is the top 4, then the league of 3 (Pool/Everton/Spurs), then 5/6 safe teams, then the strugglers/relegation contenders .
The biggest gap between the mini leagues imo is the one between Pool/Everton/Spurs and the next group. Maybe Everton could fall out of that group but 20/1 Pool doesn't interest me.

[tikay]

I posted a couple of weeks ago that I was very keen on Arsenal @ 12/1 e/w. This was when it looked like Higuain was likely. Then it looked like Suarez. Now I'm not sure who they are going to get but Suarez doesn't look likely to me. Even with no one, I still like my 12/1.
If they get Suarez or another big striker signing, I think the 11/1 is excellent. There will be very little between any of the top 4 in that scenario.

Personally I think the e/w bet is best as I think they can win. Basically I agree with Red, I just think Arsenal are very under rated.

In the top goalscorer market, I like Walcott @ 40/1 e/w (also 47/1 on Betfair but that's win only).
Unfortunately this bet is better if Arsenal don't sign a striker, which obviously hurts the Arsenal e/w bet. Hard to win both but possible.

I would say Red is somewhat underestimating Pool though. They aren't that bad and even if they lose Suarez, I just can't see them finishing bottom half. The decline would be massive. Yes, they were miles off the top last year but they were 12 points ahead of 8th, 17 points ahead of 11th/bottom half.
The league is split into a number of 'mini leagues' imo.
There is the top 4, then the league of 3 (Pool/Everton/Spurs), then 5/6 safe teams, then the strugglers/relegation contenders .
The biggest gap between the mini leagues imo is the one between Pool/Everton/Spurs and the next group. Maybe Everton could fall out of that group but 20/1 Pool doesn't interest me.

Morning.

Yes, I remembered that when reds mentioned Arsenal yesterday. Eventually we settled on "Top Three".

Personally, off-thread, I have already had a small each way interest in Arsenal to win the Premier League, & now Fred might just have a small wager, too. A lot of people keep forgetting about value, & I'm pretty sure the market has over-reacted with the Arsenal price. Most PL teams would love to be Arsenal.

[tikay]

Lee Westwood apologises for Twitter outburst


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/10237473/Lee-Westwood-hits-back-at-Twitter-trolls-after-criticism-of-final-US-PGA-2013-round.html

Part of the apology is because his sponsors would be a bit cross with him, but even so, I'm pleased he apologised.

As the Telegraph notes, it was all deeply undignified, & not at all what we expect from pro Golfers. Footballers, yes, golfers, no. 

Having said all that, I can fully understand his annoyance with all these know-nothings hiding behind their keyboards, some of whom have barely completed a round on the local Muni, telling him he is a "clown" & a "bottler". We do live in a very peculiar society, when Billy Fuckall can freely hurl abuse at gifted & successful individuals. Westwood's career earnings exceed £30 million.   

[Tal]

Some Daddy Bets going on overnight I see.

Anyone else feeling inadequate this morning?

[tikay]

Some Daddy Bets going on overnight I see.

Anyone else feeling inadequate this morning?

I actually enjoy watching these guys do their thing. Scary stuff!

Anyway, listen to me Tal.

Yesterday, in your absence, we had one of our biggest ever wins, AND we (briefly) exceeded 4% ROI in our overall returns since Fred began.

Then you logged on, & it all went tits up, & that magical 4% ROI shrunk to 3.94.

See where I am going with this?

[Tal]

Some Daddy Bets going on overnight I see.

Anyone else feeling inadequate this morning?

I actually enjoy watching these guys do their thing. Scary stuff!

Anyway, listen to me Tal.

Yesterday, in your absence, we had one of our biggest ever wins, AND we (briefly) exceeded 4% ROI in our overall returns since Fred began.

Then you logged on, & it all went tits up.

See where I am going with this?

Is it mad?

All I remember is you betting on an empty trophy cabinet.

[TightEnd]

Daily Report

Profit on Month £737.42

Outstanding Bets £2863.06

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=28


It was an afternoon like any other. Except Tal was absent. BigAdz was getting prices wrong and deleting his own recommendations. We were following the Ashes up in Durham and trying to understand Wayne Rooney's psyche. Strangely, BigAdz appears to have got closest to that. When at 5.26pm Neil Channing dissected a race with the conclusion "can see this being a great bet"

Ten minutes later, as Zampa Manos came in at 10-1, the thread had a £680 profit after £25 ew was upped to £50 ew and I think that's the biggest single win we've had (I stand to be corrected).

As a result, and offset by losses on Athletics, Tennis and Ayr racing the thread was up £470 for the day.

Such was the euphoria that 10 pages were posted in the evening and we backed Arsenal to break into the Premier League Top three and one poster almost accepted a £37,500 liability on a bet with a fellow poster. Success is an intoxicating brew, clearly. Not quite as intoxicating as trying to explain to Ironside that we've backed Southampton to go down though.

We were unlucky in the World Athletics with Ohourugu pipping Montsho, in a race I stil can't believe Montsho lost

At Durham, Australia went to tea at 120-1 then lost 9 wickets for 104 in the final session to lose, and give England a 3-0 Ashes series victory

We have quite the sweat on two bets going to the Oval a week tomorrow

Swann 11/2 top series bowler is positioned as follows:

The Ashes 2013 Most wickets
Player          Inn Wkts Average  Econ
GP Swann          8   23   27.00  2.97
RJ Harris         6   20   19.25  2.98
SCJ Broad         8   17   25.47  2.98
PM Siddle         8   17   26.29  2.81
JM Anderson       8   17   31.11  3.11

Clarke Top Australian runs at 5/2 is positioned as follows

The Ashes 2013 Most runs
Player           Inn Runs Best Average
IR Bell            8  500  113   71.42
MJ Clarke          8  346  187   49.42
CJL Rogers         8  344  110   43.00

That run list would be quite instructive. England have won 3-0 despite only one player averaging over 40 with the bat and the side not scoring over 400 in the series. To say bowlers from both sides have been on top would be an understatement

In baseball in the AL central the Royals won and the Tigers lost. Might we have a squeak with that bet?

The gap to the top to send the Royals to the post season is closing

Central    W    L    Pct    GB    Home    Road    Last 10    Streak
Detroit Tigers    69    48    .590    --    37-19    32-29    7-3    Lost 2
Kansas City Royals    62    54    .534    6.5    33-26    29-28    8-2    Won 2

[TightEnd]

Andrew Balding and Zampa Manos



Neil Channing, grumpy no more (perhaps)



Dip, please, dip....

Click to see full-size image.

The winning moment at Durham



We're all Arsenal fans now



but this is what we do not want to see

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Top writeage Rich!


It was an afternoon like any other. Except Tal was absent. BigAdz was getting prices wrong and deleting his own recommendations. We were following the Ashes up in Durham and trying to understand Wayne Rooney's psyche. Strangely, BigAdz appears to have got closest to that. When at 5.26pm Neil Channing dissected a race with the conclusion "can see this being a great bet"

Such was the euphoria that 10 pages were posted in the evening and we backed Arsenal to break into the Premier League Top three and one poster almost accepted a £37,500 liability on a bet with a fellow poster. Success is an intoxicating brew, clearly. Not quite as intoxicating as trying to explain to Ironside that we've backed Southampton to go down though.

[TightEnd]

I would like to recomend £50 on Southampton to be relegated from the Premier League next season

They fit the profile for a team to go back down and @ 10-1 with sporting odds Im sure we will get a decent sweat

How much youre allowed on is another thing as they are stand out price

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

On

SportingBet £30

Bet Type: Single
English Premier League 2013-14 - Relegation English Premier League 2013-14 - Relegation
Southampton11.00
Possible Payout 330.00 GBP
1 bet @
30.00 GBP
Total Cost: 30.00 GBP
Total Possible Payout
(inc. stake):
330.00 GBP

Just for Ironside

Looks good at the moment, they haven't won a game yet

[tikay]

would like too know who proposed the bet and there thinking though

This question from Ironside referred to Southampton.

He wanted to suggest we back them to finish Top Half, & it was replied that we had already backed them to be relegated.

The bet was proposed by Fun4Fraser (Fraser Bellamy), & he wrote, on July 9th....


I would like to recomend £50 on Southampton to be relegated from the Premier League next season

They fit the profile for a team to go back down and @ 10-1 with sporting odds Im sure we will get a decent sweat

How much youre allowed on is another thing as they are stand out price

I took the bet, so I acceot responsibility. However, as with so many things, in gambling, poker, & life, in hidndsight it looks very different, & I rather wish I had not bet it, & I have no idea what I was thinking.

Anyway, too late, we are on now, so we'll see.

[tikay]

Ooh - my reply & Tighty's "crossed" but I now discover that I never took the bet, I was in Vegas at the time, on a Fred-sabbatical, Mere Novice took it, so that is excellent news, as we can blame him. Perfect.

[Doobs]

Cliffs:
10/1 bottom 3 is always going to look more appealing than 7/4 places 7 to 10. 

I remember those heady days of 2nd season optimism. 

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

I get a little depressed when you mention our ROI of around 3-4% as I feel with the expertise on offer and your astute stewardship it should be higher. I would like to think we should be able to achieve 10%. Anyway, I decided to compare the first 6 months of Fred  with the same 6 months a year later, to see if that could offer me some solace and to indicate that we are improving.

                                                 2012                                                             2013

                          TURNOVER           PROFIT/LOSS                               TURNOVER        PROFIT/LOSS

FEB                        1,795                  119                                            2,658                    801
MAR                       3,351                  188                                            4,107                 1,093
APR                        4,091                  793                                           5,026                 -1,231
MAY                       6,005                 -710                                           5,118                     615
JUN                        4,803                 -473                                           4,402                       24
JUL                        2,369                    88                                           2,675                     191

TOTAL                  22,414                   5                                              23,986                1,493

                                      ROI    almost 0 %                                                   ROI              6.2%

All in all I find the figures for this year to be quite pleasing and I think that the 10% is achieveable, especially if Gina can pull it off. Keep up the good work.