Tips for Tikay

[Ironside]

Tikay 10-1 on the saints to go down is a fair bet spent the last cpl of hours scrolling back and reading through the thinking but maybe looking through tinted specs dont see this side struggling at the bottom with 6 games to go this season

[tikay]

Cliffs:
10/1 bottom 3 is always going to look more appealing than 7/4 places 7 to 10. 

I remember those heady days of 2nd season optimism. 

Quite so.

I'm not knocking Fraser, or Mere, really, but if you look at that Spready, there are so many bets there that evoke "what the hell was I thinking?"

All part of the learning process, & life, I suppose. Things can look so different with hindsight.

Click to see full-size image.

[Ironside]

Cliffs:
10/1 bottom 3 is always going to look more appealing than 7/4 places 7 to 10. 

I remember those heady days of 2nd season optimism. 

not if your a saints fan it doesn't I will have to pray your bet loses for once lol

[Ironside]

Oh looking at tighty's report I see fred has nearly 3k in outstanding bets. I thought fred had starting roll of 1k has it been winning enough to enable this or is roll open ended now?

[tikay]

Morning Mr T.

I get a little depressed when you mention our ROI of around 3-4% as I feel with the expertise on offer and your astute stewardship it should be higher. I would like to think we should be able to achieve 10%. Anyway, I decided to compare the first 6 months of Fred  with the same 6 months a year later, to see if that could offer me some solace and to indicate that we are improving.

                                                 2012                                                             2013

                          TURNOVER           PROFIT/LOSS                               TURNOVER        PROFIT/LOSS

FEB                        1,795                  119                                            2,658                    801
MAR                       3,351                  188                                            4,107                 1,093
APR                        4,091                  793                                           5,026                 -1,231
MAY                       6,005                 -710                                           5,118                     615
JUN                        4,803                 -473                                           4,402                       24
JUL                        2,369                    88                                           2,675                     191

TOTAL                  22,414                   5                                              23,986                1,493

                                      ROI    almost 0 %                                                   ROI              6.2%

All in all I find the figures for this year to be quite pleasing and I think that the 10% is achieveable, especially if Gina can pull it off. Keep up the good work.

Ooh, I'm glad you posted that hector, because it was exercising my mind last night.

Is 4% good? Yes, to me, I think it is amazing, though I claim no credit, the profit is down to our regulars, & guidance from the Elders. But as I spent 30 years as a mug punter, losing money non-stop, 4% looks outstanding to me.

Is 10% achievable? No, I think that is way too optimistic. 5% is my initial goal, & I think we can achieve that, with what we have learned. Doing so without losing the fun aspect is difficult, though.

By way of mitigation, however.....

The exercise is not purely profit. Mostly, yes, but add in these factors....

1) Having a bit of fun at no cost. The word "fun" is key.

2) Some "blonde Community" aspects. Tighty & I, in particular, have a responsibility to try & make blonde a better Forum, & a place people enjoy visiting, & we both try very hard to do that, but sometimes it clashes with the notion of profit. All newbies get a "free first bet", for example, to encourage more to get involved. For what it is worth, this thread represents exactly what I always wanted blonde to be from day one. Sensible, adult debates, folks helping each other, & fun. morons gonna moron & that sort of childish nonsense has never figured here. 

3) Bad discipline on my part from time to time, yesterday being a good example. In the euphoria after that big win yesterday, I was, perhaps, a bit trigger happy with "fun bets" for example. I need to toughen up sometimes, but I don't find it easy to say "no", in a manner which does not give offence. People, not unreasonably, get very uppity when a recommend gets knocked back.

4)  Blind bets. Some regulars here get their bets put on "blind". I don't agree with many of them, but I know they know better than me.  It is, primarily, these "blind bets" that are most of our profit. I back a lot of them off-thread, too, but definitely not all of them. My dilemma arises when two Elders have a different view, but thats all part of it I suppose. I actually crap mysrlf when, say, Lord Grumpy, Doobsy, Camel, Chumpy, Phil, Dubai reds or whoever say "stick £100 on that". But that's the buzz, too.  I'm more a hector type at heart, "ooh, £20 @ 6/4 is plenty".

5) Mostly, of Fred, it is the fact that all these seasoned Elders & Pro Punters spend so much time helping us understand what is what. They don't need to educate us, but they do. What a thing that is, eh?

We should not forget how much admin work goes into it either, primarily by Mere & Tighty. At present, Mere is taking a well-deserved break, so the whole burden sits on Tighty's shoulders. I know he enjoys it, you can tell, but it does take a lot of his time.

[tikay]

Oh looking at tighty's report I see fred has nearly 3k in outstanding bets. I thought fred had starting roll of 1k has it been winning enough to enable this or is roll open ended now?

The starting roll was increased in increments to £3,000, once it was clear we could turn a profit, because £1,000 was impractical as a working bank, & we wanted the headroom to do long-term stuff. 

One of the things I have learned from Fred is that, like poker, we don't HAVE to have a strict bankroll, & the traditional bankroll rules are not always sensible or desirable. I think Chompy, in a rare moment of clarity, was the one who convinced me of that.

I'm neither thrilled nor upset that we have nearly £3,000 in forward bets.  It is far far more than I intended, but I think it stands scrutiny.

I try to review the forward book regularly, & I happen to be utterly convinced that it contains a profit of at least 25%. If it does - if - then it is a good investment.

I'd really like to run a Fun Competition where regulars try to value our forward book - "how much could we sell that £3,000 forward book for?" sort of thing. It'd be incredible fun, but there are so many bets it would be jolly hard work to put a value against each one.

You can buy it for £4,000 if you wish, though?.......

[Ironside]

If I had 4k doing nothing the answer would still be thanks but no thanks odd bet here and there for me as a mug punter looking for the odd outstanding value bet

4k in my bank could really do some damage to my life expectancy sometimes there is benefits in not having a roll anymore lol

[Doobs]

Oh looking at tighty's report I see fred has nearly 3k in outstanding bets. I thought fred had starting roll of 1k has it been winning enough to enable this or is roll open ended now?

The starting roll was increased in increments to £3,000, once it was clear we could turn a profit, because £1,000 was impractical as a working bank, & we wanted the headroom to do long-term stuff. 

One of the things I have learned from Fred is that, like poker, we don't HAVE to have a strict bankroll, & the traditional bankroll rules are not always sensible or desirable. I think Chompy, in a rare moment of clarity, was the one who convinced me of that.

I'm neither thrilled nor upset that we have nearly £3,000 in forward bets.  It is far far more than I intended, but I think it stands scrutiny.

I try to review the forward book regularly, & I happen to be utterly convinced that it contains a profit of at least 25%. If it does - if - then it is a good investment.

I'd really like to run a Fun Competition where regulars try to value our forward book - "how much could we sell that £3,000 forward book for?" sort of thing. It'd be incredible fun, but there are so many bets it would be jolly hard work to put a value against each one.

You can buy it for £4,000 if you wish, though?.......

I know we have some excellent outstanding bets, but think you are probably a bit optimistic.  Though there has been some greening out, I can't remember much redding out.  Redding out is something that goes against the human psyche.  Nobody likes to take a loss, so we cling on hoping the bet comes good.  The "I haven't made a loss until I sell" mentality is also ingrained on some investing fora.  

I might give it a go before the Big Brother positive boost disappears.  

[TightEnd]

Just for Tal

Daily Arsenal update for 9 months

Bayern Munich midfielder Luiz Gustavo has confirmed he would be interested in playing for Arsenal after conceding he is in a 'very delicate situation'.

Sky Sports sources understand that Arsenal have offered Bayern £17.2million for Gustavo as Arsene Wenger seeks his first major summer signing.

Gustavo's future at Bayern is uncertain after the capture of Thiago Alcantara further reduced his prospects of regular first-team football with the European champions.

He has also been linked with the likes of Napoli and Wolfsburg, and the 26-year-old wants to be playing regularly to boost his prospects of representing Brazil at next summer's World Cup.

"My contract with Bayern runs until 2015 but it is very important that I play first-team football to keep getting called up for Brazil," Gustavo told reporters on his arrival in Basel for Brazil's friendly against Switzerland.

"I am in a very delicate situation at Bayern and this needs sorting out. I have personal and professional reasons to move.

"I have heard about the Arsenal interest. It's a big club we're talking about here so of course I'd like to play for them.

"I have heard about the Arsenal interest. It's a big club we're talking about here so of course I'd like to play for them."

"Arsenal play a very attractive brand of football and are in the Champions League. They also have a very clever manager in Arsene Wenger.

"Even when Bayern beat them in the last Champions League [on aggregate] you could see they are not pushovers."

Arsenal's talks to sign Gustavo are understood to be at an advanced stage, although reports in Germany have also claimed that clubs in the Bundesliga, Spain and Russia are interested.

Gustavo started just 16 Bundesliga games for treble-winning Bayern last season and it is understood he would prefer to move to a team in the Champions League.

And, as Arsenal await a marquee signing which may or may not materialise before the September 2 closure of the transfer window, Wenger believes it is important to look at the players he does have available for the start of the season.

"We are in the transfer market and we try still to strengthen our squad," Wenger, who has made two bids for Liverpool striker Luis Suarez, told Arsenal Player.

"It's important as well now to focus on the squad who are already at the club and that you focus on the competition, not only on the transfer market."

Arsenal start their Premier League campaign with a home game against Aston Villa on Saturday.

[Tal]

What's more boring than 128 chess players sitting down and playing chess in a room in near-perpetual light?



128 chess players standing in a queue, waiting to go through security before they play.


You have been warned.

[tikay]

Oh looking at tighty's report I see fred has nearly 3k in outstanding bets. I thought fred had starting roll of 1k has it been winning enough to enable this or is roll open ended now?

The starting roll was increased in increments to £3,000, once it was clear we could turn a profit, because £1,000 was impractical as a working bank, & we wanted the headroom to do long-term stuff. 

One of the things I have learned from Fred is that, like poker, we don't HAVE to have a strict bankroll, & the traditional bankroll rules are not always sensible or desirable. I think Chompy, in a rare moment of clarity, was the one who convinced me of that.

I'm neither thrilled nor upset that we have nearly £3,000 in forward bets.  It is far far more than I intended, but I think it stands scrutiny.

I try to review the forward book regularly, & I happen to be utterly convinced that it contains a profit of at least 25%. If it does - if - then it is a good investment.

I'd really like to run a Fun Competition where regulars try to value our forward book - "how much could we sell that £3,000 forward book for?" sort of thing. It'd be incredible fun, but there are so many bets it would be jolly hard work to put a value against each one.

You can buy it for £4,000 if you wish, though?.......

I know we have some excellent outstanding bets, but think you are probably a bit optimistic.  Though there has been some greening out, I can't remember much redding out.  Redding out is something that goes against the human psyche.  Nobody likes to take a loss, so we cling on hoping the bet comes good.  The "I haven't made a loss until I sell" mentality is also ingrained on some investing fora. 

I might give it a go before the Big Brother positive boost disappears. 

No, I don't think that accurately reflects the position.

1) The "25%" figure was plucked out of the air, really, as somewhere to oil the wheels of debate. 15% more like, I'd say.

2) "No Redding out". No, that is an accounting quirk, just the way that Mere & I set the thing up really. It is VERY strict. Every losing bet MUST be written off the day it can no longer win. Not a day later. But we NEVER write off bad bets until that moment.  It would be an administrative nightmare to willy-nilly write off bad bets before they are technically dead. Taking them early messes with so many aspects of the numbers. As it is, everything is factual.

So yes, there are plenty of bad bets on the sheet still, but it gives Eso Kral his moment of glory, to see his name in lights.

I would LOVE you to do an exercise to assess the value of the forward book though.

We could even award a prize when all the bets mature if someone got within x%......

Rate My Portfolio

[tikay]

Daily Updates on Chess, & the Arsenal?

Jaffa Cake will be in Jaffa Cake Heaven.

Wait until booder & 'Boshi find out we have backed Liverpool to finish bottom half.....

[TightEnd]

I actually think the "OMG what WERE we thinking?" co-efficient in the forward book is comparatively small at the moment

A few, but not so bad

As a group of posters, opinion givers and head decision maker, the collective is a way better than it was a year ago. Tempted to believe this is reflected in a rising ROI over time as Hector showed though the recent incidence of a few big "boom" bets may be flattering it somewhat

[tikay]

I actually think the "OMG what WERE we thinking?" co-efficient in the forward book is comparatively small at the moment

A few, but not so bad

As a group of posters, opinion givers and head decision maker, the collective is a way better than it was a year ago. Tempted to believe this is reflected in a rising ROI over time as Hector showed though the recent incidence of a few big "boom" bets may be flattering it somewhat

Well yes, a few nice "BOOM" bets, but we have had big losers, too.

The BEST sweats we have had were losers - Barnet, Brighton & the 49-ers, although I think we got out of it on all three occasions via the reverse equity pissing route. But wow, how much fun did we have with them?

Eso Kral tho.

[edgascoigne]

Oh looking at tighty's report I see fred has nearly 3k in outstanding bets. I thought fred had starting roll of 1k has it been winning enough to enable this or is roll open ended now?

The starting roll was increased in increments to £3,000, once it was clear we could turn a profit, because £1,000 was impractical as a working bank, & we wanted the headroom to do long-term stuff. 

One of the things I have learned from Fred is that, like poker, we don't HAVE to have a strict bankroll, & the traditional bankroll rules are not always sensible or desirable. I think Chompy, in a rare moment of clarity, was the one who convinced me of that.

I'm neither thrilled nor upset that we have nearly £3,000 in forward bets.  It is far far more than I intended, but I think it stands scrutiny.

I try to review the forward book regularly, & I happen to be utterly convinced that it contains a profit of at least 25%. If it does - if - then it is a good investment.

I'd really like to run a Fun Competition where regulars try to value our forward book - "how much could we sell that £3,000 forward book for?" sort of thing. It'd be incredible fun, but there are so many bets it would be jolly hard work to put a value against each one.

You can buy it for £4,000 if you wish, though?.......

I know we have some excellent outstanding bets, but think you are probably a bit optimistic.  Though there has been some greening out, I can't remember much redding out.  Redding out is something that goes against the human psyche.  Nobody likes to take a loss, so we cling on hoping the bet comes good.  The "I haven't made a loss until I sell" mentality is also ingrained on some investing fora. 

I might give it a go before the Big Brother positive boost disappears. 

No, I don't think that accurately reflects the position.

1) The "25%" figure was plucked out of the air, really, as somewhere to oil the wheels of debate. 15% more like, I'd say.

2) "No Redding out". No, that is an accounting quirk, just the way that Mere & I set the thing up really. It is VERY strict. Every losing bet MUST be written off the day it can no longer win. Not a day later. But we NEVER write off bad bets until that moment.  It would be an administrative nightmare to willy-nilly write off bad bets before they are technically dead. Taking them early messes with so many aspects of the numbers. As it is, everything is factual.

So yes, there are plenty of bad bets on the sheet still, but it gives Eso Kral his moment of glory, to see his name in lights.

I would LOVE you to do an exercise to assess the value of the forward book though.

We could even award a prize when all the bets mature if someone got within x%......

Rate My Portfolio

In the entirely theoretical situation where every market was liquid (and assumed accurate) it would be a relatively simple, if time-consuming, exercise. Let me see how many bets are there...