Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Oh yes, it is all theoretical.

Anyway, off you go Ed, you have until 5pm.

You could always ask The Father, aka Check-Raise Gas. 

[edgascoigne]

Oh yes, it is all theoretical.

Anyway, off you go Ed, you have until 5pm.

You could always ask The Father, aka Check-Raise Gas. 

I've fallen at the first. How do I extract all unsettled bets in the easiest manner please?

[tikay]

Oh yes, it is all theoretical.

Anyway, off you go Ed, you have until 5pm.

You could always ask The Father, aka Check-Raise Gas.  

I've fallen at the first. How do I extract all unsettled bets in the easiest manner please?

Just view the current month, they are all there. Mere carries them all forward on the first of each month. The ones that have "blank" in the P/L column, which is Column L.

Here....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

 

[Ironside]

Ok I have just been looking at the big brother bets but I am so thick I cant work out who fred is routing for all 3 of the favourites seem to be winners

[TightEnd]

Sorry for the link http://www.betpal.com/2013-14-premier-league-betting-preview-part-2-goalscorers-relegation-handicaps-and-managers

I really like Cardiff +47 on the Prem Handicap

the argument is in the link

Last year Man U won the league with 89 points with City and Chelsea 11 and 14 points behind

It might be reasonable to expect the top of the league to be closer this season. City and Chelsea(?) better, we think Arsenal will be better...

So could they take more points off each other such that the league is won by fewer points?

To win the league, season by season going back a decade: 89,90,80,86,90,87,89,91,95,90

Anyway.

- putting up Cardiff +47 is going to be a minority view. Using 90 as the target, Cardiff would need to score 43 points to be in with a shot

- I saw them several times last season. This defence is the real deal. Top goalkeeper in Marshall, Hudson very under-rated centre-back. Very well developed style of play away from home that is going to grind them out points when not expected to. Could be an unders team on match goal bets for individual away games too.

- Like the signings of Caulker, Medel and like the idea of Cornelius as a target man though have nothing with my own eyes to go on there yet. Brayford from Derby is a clever signing too, decent player in a pretty non-descript team for several seasons

I think they are going to surprise a lot of people and the handicaps and outrights price them to be 17th-18th end of season. If Cardiff are 17-18th come October, the owners will do a lot in the January transfer window to give them a shot in the second half so that is a back stop to being in the handicap hunt near the end

You can get 15/1 +47 with BetVictor

As I say, I don't expect this to be supported but its a contrarian bet I have thought a lot about and am quite confident about

Oh, we have Mackay to be sacked first too, which I disagree with but I mention it for full disclosure

[edgascoigne]

Oh yes, it is all theoretical.

Anyway, off you go Ed, you have until 5pm.

You could always ask The Father, aka Check-Raise Gas.  

I've fallen at the first. How do I extract all unsettled bets in the easiest manner please?

Just view the current month, they are all there. Mere carries them all forward on the first of each month. The ones that have "blank" in the P/L column, which is Column L.

Here....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=28

 

Goddim. Fear it may be a bit time consuming but if I somehow get stuck into it I will obv post in the thread

[The Camel]

Morning Mr T.

I get a little depressed when you mention our ROI of around 3-4% as I feel with the expertise on offer and your astute stewardship it should be higher. I would like to think we should be able to achieve 10%. Anyway, I decided to compare the first 6 months of Fred  with the same 6 months a year later, to see if that could offer me some solace and to indicate that we are improving.

                                                 2012                                                             2013

                          TURNOVER           PROFIT/LOSS                               TURNOVER        PROFIT/LOSS

FEB                        1,795                  119                                            2,658                    801
MAR                       3,351                  188                                            4,107                 1,093
APR                        4,091                  793                                           5,026                 -1,231
MAY                       6,005                 -710                                           5,118                     615
JUN                        4,803                 -473                                           4,402                       24
JUL                        2,369                    88                                           2,675                     191

TOTAL                  22,414                   5                                              23,986                1,493

                                      ROI    almost 0 %                                                   ROI              6.2%

All in all I find the figures for this year to be quite pleasing and I think that the 10% is achieveable, especially if Gina can pull it off. Keep up the good work.

Ooh, I'm glad you posted that hector, because it was exercising my mind last night.

Is 4% good? Yes, to me, I think it is amazing, though I claim no credit, the profit is down to our regulars, & guidance from the Elders. But as I spent 30 years as a mug punter, losing money non-stop, 4% looks outstanding to me.

Is 10% achievable? No, I think that is way too optimistic. 5% is my initial goal, & I think we can achieve that, with what we have learned. Doing so without losing the fun aspect is difficult, though.

By way of mitigation, however.....

The exercise is not purely profit. Mostly, yes, but add in these factors....

1) Having a bit of fun at no cost. The word "fun" is key.

2) Some "blonde Community" aspects. Tighty & I, in particular, have a responsibility to try & make blonde a better Forum, & a place people enjoy visiting, & we both try very hard to do that, but sometimes it clashes with the notion of profit. All newbies get a "free first bet", for example, to encourage more to get involved. For what it is worth, this thread represents exactly what I always wanted blonde to be from day one. Sensible, adult debates, folks helping each other, & fun. morons gonna moron & that sort of childish nonsense has never figured here. 

3) Bad discipline on my part from time to time, yesterday being a good example. In the euphoria after that big win yesterday, I was, perhaps, a bit trigger happy with "fun bets" for example. I need to toughen up sometimes, but I don't find it easy to say "no", in a manner which does not give offence. People, not unreasonably, get very uppity when a recommend gets knocked back.

4)  Blind bets. Some regulars here get their bets put on "blind". I don't agree with many of them, but I know they know better than me.  It is, primarily, these "blind bets" that are most of our profit. I back a lot of them off-thread, too, but definitely not all of them. My dilemma arises when two Elders have a different view, but thats all part of it I suppose. I actually crap mysrlf when, say, Lord Grumpy, Doobsy, Camel, Chumpy, Phil, Dubai reds or whoever say "stick £100 on that". But that's the buzz, too.  I'm more a hector type at heart, "ooh, £20 @ 6/4 is plenty".

5) Mostly, of Fred, it is the fact that all these seasoned Elders & Pro Punters spend so much time helping us understand what is what. They don't need to educate us, but they do. What a thing that is, eh?

We should not forget how much admin work goes into it either, primarily by Mere & Tighty. At present, Mere is taking a well-deserved break, so the whole burden sits on Tighty's shoulders. I know he enjoys it, you can tell, but it does take a lot of his time.

The biggest winning punters I know don't make 10% ROI.

They just bet far far bigger than Fred does and rely on somewhere about 7 or 8%.

4% is an incredible achievement when you consider 97%ish of punters are losers.

[tikay]

Sorry for the link http://www.betpal.com/2013-14-premier-league-betting-preview-part-2-goalscorers-relegation-handicaps-and-managers

I really like Cardiff +47 on the Prem Handicap

the argument is in the link

Last year Man U won the league with 89 points with City and Chelsea 11 and 14 points behind

It might be reasonable to expect the top of the league to be closer this season. City and Chelsea(?) better, we think Arsenal will be better...

So could they take more points off each other such that the league is won by fewer points?

To win the league, season by season going back a decade: 89,90,80,86,90,87,89,91,95,90

Anyway.

- putting up Cardiff +47 is going to be a minority view. Using 90 as the target, Cardiff would need to score 43 points to be in with a shot

- I saw them several times last season. This defence is the real deal. Top goalkeeper in Marshall, Hudson very under-rated centre-back. Very well developed style of play away from home that is going to grind them out points when not expected to. Could be an unders team on match goal bets for individual away games too.

- Like the signings of Caulker, Medel and like the idea of Cornelius as a target man though have nothing with my own eyes to go on there yet. Brayford from Derby is a clever signing too, decent player in a pretty non-descript team for several seasons

I think they are going to surprise a lot of people and the handicaps and outrights price them to be 17th-18th end of season. If Cardiff are 17-18th come October, the owners will do a lot in the January transfer window to give them a shot in the second half so that is a back stop to being in the handicap hunt near the end

You can get 15/1 +43 with BetVictor
As I say, I don't expect this to be supported but its a contrarian bet I have thought a lot about and am quite confident about

Oh, we have Mackay to be sacked first too, which I disagree with but I mention it for full disclosure

Am I misunderstanding something here, Rich?

Cardiff are + 47 (Forty Seven) with Butter Me Up, but only +43 or 44 elsewhere.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/handicaps

[The Camel]

Sorry for the link http://www.betpal.com/2013-14-premier-league-betting-preview-part-2-goalscorers-relegation-handicaps-and-managers

I really like Cardiff +47 on the Prem Handicap

the argument is in the link

Last year Man U won the league with 89 points with City and Chelsea 11 and 14 points behind

It might be reasonable to expect the top of the league to be closer this season. City and Chelsea(?) better, we think Arsenal will be better...

So could they take more points off each other such that the league is won by fewer points?

To win the league, season by season going back a decade: 89,90,80,86,90,87,89,91,95,90

Anyway.

- putting up Cardiff +47 is going to be a minority view. Using 90 as the target, Cardiff would need to score 43 points to be in with a shot

- I saw them several times last season. This defence is the real deal. Top goalkeeper in Marshall, Hudson very under-rated centre-back. Very well developed style of play away from home that is going to grind them out points when not expected to. Could be an unders team on match goal bets for individual away games too.

- Like the signings of Caulker, Medel and like the idea of Cornelius as a target man though have nothing with my own eyes to go on there yet. Brayford from Derby is a clever signing too, decent player in a pretty non-descript team for several seasons

I think they are going to surprise a lot of people and the handicaps and outrights price them to be 17th-18th end of season. If Cardiff are 17-18th come October, the owners will do a lot in the January transfer window to give them a shot in the second half so that is a back stop to being in the handicap hunt near the end

You can get 15/1 +43 with BetVictor

As I say, I don't expect this to be supported but its a contrarian bet I have thought a lot about and am quite confident about

Oh, we have Mackay to be sacked first too, which I disagree with but I mention it for full disclosure

Goddamn Tighty, I respect your judgement but I hate all those bets you've put up on Betpal (except Hughton at 16/1 to get the tin tack first).

10/3 Stoke to get relegated in particular looks an awful investment to me.

[TightEnd]

47 was the handicap that appealed yes

I can't say "its wrong"..its a season long handicap! but its out of line and gives you a real shot at being in the hunt towards the end, I think

each way only

As I say though, its so contrarian as to be unpopular, I would think

[tikay]

47 was the handicap that appealed yes

I can't say "its wrong"..its a season long handicap! but its out of line and gives you a real shot at being in the hunt towards the end, I think

each way only

As I say though, its so contrarian as to be unpopular, I would think

Why "each way only"?

Anyway, lets see what others think. I have reserved some at 15/1 though, which will go into my private file if Fred is not interested.

[TightEnd]

47 was the handicap that appealed yes

I can't say "its wrong"..its a season long handicap! but its out of line and gives you a real shot at being in the hunt towards the end, I think

each way only

As I say though, its so contrarian as to be unpopular, I would think

Why "each way only"?

Anyway, lets see what others think. I have reserved some at 15/1 though, which will go into my private file if Fred is not interested.

I meant e/w not win outright.

three things at once syndrome

Not unhappy if this is turned down, it doesn't have to be backed blind, but it is in my "value" pile

[McGlashan]

Each bookie has set a different line on the handicap. Cardiff gets the thumbs up from me as do Norwich at +44.

With BetVictor please remember to bet each way as they've given Spurs a filthy +20 point handicap which was quickly smashed into 8 to 1 from 15's.

[Doobs]

Why must we bet each way?  What are the terms?

[TightEnd]

One Quarter Odds 1,2,3,4 for Premier League handicaps

Last season on most handicaps 4 teams were in the hunt to win it on the last game, for reference