Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

minus points for including Chompy in the top 5?

[TightEnd]

tikay

Can I reserve two spots for consideration in what no doubt will be a portfolio of NFL season bets?

No time to write them just now

Both AFC, and neither would queer any anticipated pitch on the 49ers etc in the "favourites" camp, these would be value/back to lay suggestions

@ Tighty

Thoughts on Carson Palmer 40/1 EW, 1/4 first 4 places, for most passing yards in the regular season? (Sky Bet, might be better elsewhere but couldn't find anything on Oddschecker)

Although he was accused of padding his stats against backup-filled defences in final few minutes of the game last year for the Raiders when the team had already lost heavily, over 4,000 yards passing in such a poor team is hard to ignore, and he also missed the final game so the Raiders could start Terrelle Pryor.

This year, he'll be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, and Cardinals' 1st round draft pick from last year, Michael Floyd.

Thought this was value until I remembered the Cardinals play the 49ers and the Seahawks twice, but might as well post it here anyway to get a second opinion.

Not a chance

For starters, as you say he has six games against the 49ers, Seatle and the Rams in the toughest division around. All are really strong defenses

For second, the Cardinals have beefed up their running game, in theory, so should at least be competitive in more games and not throwing from way behind from early in games

For third, they only have one bona fide receiving option, Fitzgerald. He is brilliant, but Floyd and the rest are no great shakes

Fourthly  http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards

Now while it is true you do not need to be on a contending team to throw for a lot of yards he has to make up a lot of ground to be in contention this season

Last season he scraped into the top 10 at Oakland. Arizona's QB was 36th

You just can't see him making up 1,000 yards plus to the top when Stafford has Calvin, Brees is around, Manning has Welker, Romo has Bryant, Ryan has White and Julio etc etc. Then there is Brady, where the WR situation is uncertain but its Brady.Oh and I forgot Rodgers and then Luck in his second season

Its a really strong QB and passing league.

Fifthly, he's not as good as he was and is in Arizona for a year as a stepping stone to a young quarterback

So, cliffs, no thanks

[TightEnd]

Ommmm

Scott O'Reilly that plays at Luton? Saw you at DTD a fortnight or so ago?

p.s some good picks on your top 5. and then me!

[Tal]

Omm, out of interest, do you have a personalised number plate?

[Omm]

minus points for including Chompy in the top 5?

Thought it might be controversial!

[Omm]

Ommmm

Scott O'Reilly that plays at Luton? Saw you at DTD a fortnight or so ago?

p.s some good picks on your top 5. and then me!

Hi Tighty , not sure how many Scott O'Reilly's play poker or even at Luton, but the only Dtd I've played recently was on Monday night on Sky. Although I will be going to Luton tonight to see if I can splash the cash in the donkament, no doubt ill introduce myself when I get to an Spt.

[Omm]

Omm, out of interest, do you have a personalised number plate?

No, why do u have one to sell?

[TightEnd]

I am doing a lot of work on the T20 Finals for articles

We are on Essex at 12-1, and have a shot certainly and a sweat before then whatever

Essex play Northants in the semi. I am on Northants for the whole thing from a way back. Both teams will be delighted to avoid Hampshire in the semi

Either way, its good


Northants Wickets in the 2013 T20 competition

Azharullah 24 in 10 Innings. He has 3 innings of 4 wickets taken

Willey 17 in 10 innings. 1 innings of 4 wickets taken

Crook 6 in 8 innings

Daggett 5 in 11 innings

Middlebrook 5 in 9 innings

Spriegel 5 in 9 innings


This is a match bet Willey/Azharullah for the semi final "Top Northants wicket taker". Both spinners are there to get through the overs, restrict runs. Daggett and Crook are third seamers and don't have the range of wicket taking balls the big two have

Willey and Azharullah bowl at the death, and Azharullah does not take the new ball. Generally takes an over after the powerplay, an over in the middle and two at the end, so he avoids the big hitters and can have half his overs at tail enders, for whom he can be unplayable. These overs pad his stats

Against Essex, a dangerous set of big hitting batsmen, Azharullah's variations of pace off the ball and yorkers will be the big threat (they have to go after him, and take risks, in most match situations for at least half his overs) and he is to me a warm favourite to top this market

Before I looked at prices I made it

Azharullah 7/4
Willey 11/4
Crook 6/1
Daggett 7/1
Middlebrook 7/1
Spriegel 10/1

(overround 111%)

Then I see the market

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/friends-life-t20/northamptonshire-v-essex/top-northamptonshire-bowler

(overround 117.6%)

5/2 Azharullah is wrong. Or wrong often enough that it simply has to be taken in whatever size you can

Match is Saturday 11am

[david3103]

It feels more than likely that Rooney will score tonight. Point to prove, no baggage in Engkand shirt etc.
9/2 @ W Hill, 7/2 Betfair as FGS
Or evens to score anytime on both which is beaten by backing ew at 4/1 with Bet365 at 1/3 odds for any time.
The 4/1 still beats bf although I understand that their price may not be the arbiter in this market.

Suggest £x ew at Bet365 where £10<= x <= £25

[bobby1]

I know someone that works football that likes the Palace to finish bottom bet a lot at that price.

Just caught up a good few pages, have to say top work Neil on the horse front, what a brill boost that was to the figures.

[Tal]

Omm, out of interest, do you have a personalised number plate?

No, why do u have one to sell?

I'm being ever so slightly mischievous. Camel hates them almost as much as Tikay hates people getting the names of planes wrong. A380 or 747?  

In a year, I've gone from being a massive ice cream (betting parlance for a mug punter - should be somewhere about page 1,138...) to what I hope most would agree was at worst a McFlurry. Others will have made similar, albeit less public, journeys.

[Chompy]

Excellent top five Mr Omm sir, although Tikay is more of a thread 'enthusiast' than a 'tipster' or 'expert'.

[Doobs]

It feels more than likely that Rooney will score tonight. Point to prove, no baggage in Engkand shirt etc.
9/2 @ W Hill, 7/2 Betfair as FGS
Or evens to score anytime on both which is beaten by backing ew at 4/1 with Bet365 at 1/3 odds for any time.
The 4/1 still beats bf although I understand that their price may not be the arbiter in this market.

Suggest £x ew at Bet365 where £10<= x <= £25

Rooney is 5/1 with Betfair (well 4.9/1).  I think you must be looking at their dreadful fixed odds prices in error.  He is about 6/4 to score anytime. 

There may be a slight edge over Betfair by backing him to score first at Hills, as 2nd scorer is a free bet.  The Bet365 price beats neither the first goalscorer and the place price on Betfair. 

[redarmi]

tikay

Can I reserve two spots for consideration in what no doubt will be a portfolio of NFL season bets?

No time to write them just now

Both AFC, and neither would queer any anticipated pitch on the 49ers etc in the "favourites" camp, these would be value/back to lay suggestions

@ Tighty

Thoughts on Carson Palmer 40/1 EW, 1/4 first 4 places, for most passing yards in the regular season? (Sky Bet, might be better elsewhere but couldn't find anything on Oddschecker)

Although he was accused of padding his stats against backup-filled defences in final few minutes of the game last year for the Raiders when the team had already lost heavily, over 4,000 yards passing in such a poor team is hard to ignore, and he also missed the final game so the Raiders could start Terrelle Pryor.

This year, he'll be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, and Cardinals' 1st round draft pick from last year, Michael Floyd.

Thought this was value until I remembered the Cardinals play the 49ers and the Seahawks twice, but might as well post it here anyway to get a second opinion.

Not a chance

For starters, as you say he has six games against the 49ers, Seatle and the Rams in the toughest division around. All are really strong defenses

For second, the Cardinals have beefed up their running game, in theory, so should at least be competitive in more games and not throwing from way behind from early in games

For third, they only have one bona fide receiving option, Fitzgerald. He is brilliant, but Floyd and the rest are no great shakes

Fourthly  http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/passing/sort/passingYards

Now while it is true you do not need to be on a contending team to throw for a lot of yards he has to make up a lot of ground to be in contention this season

Last season he scraped into the top 10 at Oakland. Arizona's QB was 36th

You just can't see him making up 1,000 yards plus to the top when Stafford has Calvin, Brees is around, Manning has Welker, Romo has Bryant, Ryan has White and Julio etc etc. Then there is Brady, where the WR situation is uncertain but its Brady.Oh and I forgot Rodgers and then Luck in his second season

Its a really strong QB and passing league.

Fifthly, he's not as good as he was and is in Arizona for a year as a stepping stone to a young quarterback

So, cliffs, no thanks

Not really a view as such on this bet but playing 49ers twice and Seahawks is not really a negative for the bet because they are more likely to find themselves behind and having to pass the ball more which is obv good for those stats.  Last year the top 3 passing QB's were Brees, Romo and Stafford none of whom played for a team with a winning record and the Lions in particular were very poor.  Generally a good approach to passing yards bets is to bet on a QB whose team is likely to be down a bit late in the game because the public see a passing yards bet between Peyton Manning and, say, Stafford and want to be with Manning because he is the better QB but don't take into consideration he might not pass the ball much at all in the last quarter.

[david3103]

It feels more than likely that Rooney will score tonight. Point to prove, no baggage in Engkand shirt etc.
9/2 @ W Hill, 7/2 Betfair as FGS
Or evens to score anytime on both which is beaten by backing ew at 4/1 with Bet365 at 1/3 odds for any time.
The 4/1 still beats bf although I understand that their price may not be the arbiter in this market.

Suggest £x ew at Bet365 where £10<= x <= £25

Rooney is 5/1 with Betfair (well 4.9/1).  I think you must be looking at their dreadful fixed odds prices in error.  He is about 6/4 to score anytime. 

There may be a slight edge over Betfair by backing him to score first at Hills, as 2nd scorer is a free bet.  The Bet365 price beats neither the first goalscorer and the place price on Betfair.