Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

but you need to be able to move the ball Stu, through a series of first downs. Bad Teams don't do that against San Fran and Seattle, and not so easy against the Rams either these days

At the same time, Frank Gore and co keep you off the field.

[bobby1]

I think the idea behind the passing yards bet is a good one but Brees won last year because their D was so bad and he had to pass a lot to keep them in games, they didn't even have much of a run game to fall back on either. Romo is Romo, looks brill hurling it around after getting them in trouble and for Stafford ditto Brees.

The prob with the rec is basically if you ever back Carson Palmer to do something good (other than some individual passing yards bets in matches last year) it usually pays to find some way of talking yourself out of the bet imo.

[nirvana]

Yikes! Imagine how long it would take to read every page of this thread. Some good stuff on here but that's a job and a half.

It's stdd practise for any TfT newcomer to list their favourite five tipsters omm, with a line on each.

Suggest anyone with a financial interest on BB watches tonight's show. There's a twist coming. BB twists don't normally change a lot but this is an unusually bunch and things could switch. Gina remains a crazy-big price, though, and there could be a top-up coming.

Not sure if you we're joking Chompy as I can't see who else has done this but here you go..............

1) Tikay - Without a shadow of a doubt one of the most interesting people I have listen to from the world of poker. On reading through some of the posts from this thread his wisdom and comic genius oozes. Defiantly a person to be at the ultimate dinner party.

2) Tightend - I think tighty's post have a sense of command and strength, it seems to me the work that he puts in behind the scenes is tremendous, his explanations of the value he finds in his recommendations means you have to take notice. Tightend speaks and I listen.

3)  Chompy - any man/women or beast? That is crazy enough to not just watch Big Brother but also place a wager on it has my ear.

4) Badbeat - if I'm not mistaken this is Neil Channing, another who would get an invite to the dinner party, just so I could bend his ear about horse racing. He must have a large brain.

5) The Camel - Obviously a person of high intelligence, I saw a post yesterday by Tal, He questioned why a horse was running so far away. Camel said there was probably a buyer, once the horse won the trainer said he was up for sale. What a call. Also the line" I doubt he's the second coming of Sprinter Sacre"  had me chuckling.

So there u have it, top 5 in order and Chompy takes the bronze!!!! Look forward to getting and adding value.

Pretty com top 5, wp Sir ! Always surprised how many people defiantly state things rather than definitely

My top 5 shall remain secret but Channing stands out

[Tal]

I have an image of Omm running around his house with a plate of hors d'ouvres, serving all manner of high society, while surreptitiously trying to shoo away Tikay who is refusing to leave.


All that from one autocorrect. Sick.

[JoeBeevers]

5th Ashes Test Weds 21st August

Harris has easily been the best Aussie bowler this series and has 20 wickets in just 3 tests. He is however injury prone and there is talk he may not play at the Oval and be rested ahead of the Ashes down under later this year. However coach Lehmann says "We would love him to play"

He is closest to Fred's 11/2 top bowler for the series bet Swann who has 3 more wickets at 23. Siddle, Anderson and Broad all have 17.

It would be great for Fred if Harris doesn't play at the Oval. We can be fairly certain that he will only play if 100% fit.

Harris top first Aussie innings bowler is generally a 2/1 - 9/4 shot but Sky go a stand out 11/4 which could be a shade generous. If he doesn't play we get a refund.

It also works as a kind of hedge for Fred on the Swann action but of course both bets can win.

Not sure if Fred can bet Sky but would suggest a small interest if possible at 11/4.

[TightEnd]

5th Ashes Test Weds 21st August

Harris has easily been the best Aussie bowler this series and has 20 wickets in just 3 tests. He is however injury prone and there is talk he may not play at the Oval and be rested ahead of the Ashes down under later this year. However coach Lehmann says "We would love him to play"

He is closest to Fred's 11/2 top bowler for the series bet Swann who has 3 more wickets at 23. Siddle, Anderson and Broad all have 17.

It would be great for Fred if Harris doesn't play at the Oval. We can be fairly certain that he will only play if 100% fit.

Harris top first Aussie innings bowler is generally a 2/1 - 9/4 shot but Sky go a stand out 11/4 which could be a shade generous. If he doesn't play we get a refund.

It also works as a kind of hedge for Fred on the Swann action but of course both bets can win.

Not sure if Fred can bet Sky but would suggest a small interest if possible at 11/4.

Its a good price I think. tikay can't use Sky on here though. 11/4 anywhere else I think is a good spot


on a similar tack we have Clarke 5/2 top Aussie bat and Clarke is 2 runs ahead of Rogers with two innings to go

Rogers obviously gets to bat ahead of Clarke in any innings

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/ashes/top-australia-batsman

trying not to recommend 5/4 Rogers on what is a 50-50 shot...

[henrik777]

4 out of the last 5 years when the Wyndham has been at Sedgefield have produced a hole in one. (last year we won here too)

8/11 paddy 4/6 elsewhere.

Sandy

PS last time i was able to access tipsters on spreadsheet it said, iirc, i had 17 bets but i only get 15 when searching through it although May 2012 looks a bit sparse. 5/6 on hole in ones is that correct ?

[Doobs]

4 out of the last 5 years when the Wyndham has been at Sedgefield have produced a hole in one. (last year we won here too)

8/11 paddy 4/6 elsewhere.

Sandy

PS last time i was able to access tipsters on spreadsheet it said, iirc, i had 17 bets but i only get 15 when searching through it although May 2012 looks a bit sparse. 5/6 on hole in ones is that correct ?

18

[henrik777]

4 out of the last 5 years when the Wyndham has been at Sedgefield have produced a hole in one. (last year we won here too)

8/11 paddy 4/6 elsewhere.

Sandy

PS last time i was able to access tipsters on spreadsheet it said, iirc, i had 17 bets but i only get 15 when searching through it although May 2012 looks a bit sparse. 5/6 on hole in ones is that correct ?

18

Got them

They were in the May but the view needed changing to see them A max bet loser but +£30 for the 3 bets

Sandy

[tikay]

BET DISCUSSION

CRYSTAL PALACE to finish bottom at 13/5 Coral

Biggest price by a fair way in the market.

Squad basically struggled towards end of last season.

Could easily argue it is a bit weaker if anything than last season.

Cardiff and to a lesser extent Hull seem more likely to spend than Palace do.


I very rarely bet in the premiership but this stood out a bit to me?

Thanks horsey, I got on this earlier today, but I've been pre-occupied since with my runner beans.

We have £50 @ 13/5, Coral, Crystal Palace to finish bottom of the Premier League.

ON


14/08/2013 09:33AM



Single
To Win

£ 50.00

Crystal Palace - Finish Bottom - Premier League Finish Bottom 2013/14 @ 13/5


£ 0.00

[tikay]

Sorry for the link http://www.betpal.com/2013-14-premier-league-betting-preview-part-2-goalscorers-relegation-handicaps-and-managers

I really like Cardiff +47 on the Prem Handicap

the argument is in the link

Last year Man U won the league with 89 points with City and Chelsea 11 and 14 points behind

It might be reasonable to expect the top of the league to be closer this season. City and Chelsea(?) better, we think Arsenal will be better...

So could they take more points off each other such that the league is won by fewer points?

To win the league, season by season going back a decade: 89,90,80,86,90,87,89,91,95,90

Anyway.

- putting up Cardiff +47 is going to be a minority view. Using 90 as the target, Cardiff would need to score 43 points to be in with a shot

- I saw them several times last season. This defence is the real deal. Top goalkeeper in Marshall, Hudson very under-rated centre-back. Very well developed style of play away from home that is going to grind them out points when not expected to. Could be an unders team on match goal bets for individual away games too.

- Like the signings of Caulker, Medel and like the idea of Cornelius as a target man though have nothing with my own eyes to go on there yet. Brayford from Derby is a clever signing too, decent player in a pretty non-descript team for several seasons

I think they are going to surprise a lot of people and the handicaps and outrights price them to be 17th-18th end of season. If Cardiff are 17-18th come October, the owners will do a lot in the January transfer window to give them a shot in the second half so that is a back stop to being in the handicap hunt near the end

You can get 15/1 +47 with BetVictor

As I say, I don't expect this to be supported but its a contrarian bet I have thought a lot about and am quite confident about

Oh, we have Mackay to be sacked first too, which I disagree with but I mention it for full disclosure

Thanks Tighty, I got on this yesterday, apologies for the late Update.

CONFIRMATION ONLY

£20 EW @ 15/1, (qtr, 1,2,3,4) BetVictor, Cardiff City (+47) Handicap, Premier League

ON

13/08/2013 GBP 20.00 EW Single: CARDIFF CITY (+47) @ 15/1




Betid 33218541300 Time: 12:36 Bet Type: Stake: £ 40.00

Season Handicap Premier League Specials
Outright - Specials

Cardiff City (+47)

15/1

EW 1/4 1,2,3,4

 

[tikay]

I was looking at the season handicaps after the recent discussion and bet victor seem way out of line for an ew punt on wba..

they have WBA + 36 at 28/1 ( 29/1 when i took it yesterday ) whereas 365 have them at 15/1

over the past 10 years average points for 4th place in the premiership is 68.4....with a high of 76... WBA in the 3 seasons they have been back have averaged 47.6..

They are a good solid team with a good manager in Clarke..have brought in Anelka and Vydra ( who i really like ) up front where they tended to lack..assuming they would, worst case scenario , have to get 77 at the most to finish 4th they would only need to gain 41 points... more likely 71 will do it meaning 35 will get them home..

I say this not that i think the handicap will place them as winners but reaching top 4 seems very realistic with that handicap at 28/1 effectively giving us a 7/1 shot? seems a value bet ? thoughts....

No feedback on this?

[JoeBeevers]

BET DISCUSSION

CRYSTAL PALACE to finish bottom at 13/5 Coral

Biggest price by a fair way in the market.

Squad basically struggled towards end of last season.

Could easily argue it is a bit weaker if anything than last season.

Cardiff and to a lesser extent Hull seem more likely to spend than Palace do.


I very rarely bet in the premiership but this stood out a bit to me?

Thanks horsey, I got on this earlier today, but I've been pre-occupied since with my runner beans.

We have £50 @ 13/5, Coral, Crystal Palace to finish bottom of the Premier League.

ON


14/08/2013 09:33AM



Single
To Win

£ 50.00

Crystal Palace - Finish Bottom - Premier League Finish Bottom 2013/14 @ 13/5


£ 0.00

If you don't mind tying the funds up you can bet 4/7 just be relegated with Coral and that is better than Betfair.

[tikay]

Yikes! Imagine how long it would take to read every page of this thread. Some good stuff on here but that's a job and a half.

It's stdd practise for any TfT newcomer to list their favourite five tipsters omm, with a line on each.

Suggest anyone with a financial interest on BB watches tonight's show. There's a twist coming. BB twists don't normally change a lot but this is an unusually bunch and things could switch. Gina remains a crazy-big price, though, and there could be a top-up coming.

Not sure if you we're joking Chompy as I can't see who else has done this but here you go..............

1) Tikay - Without a shadow of a doubt one of the most interesting people I have listen to from the world of poker. On reading through some of the posts from this thread his wisdom and comic genius oozes. Defiantly a person to be at the ultimate dinner party.

2) Tightend - I think tighty's post have a sense of command and strength, it seems to me the work that he puts in behind the scenes is tremendous, his explanations of the value he finds in his recommendations means you have to take notice. Tightend speaks and I listen.

3)  Chompy - any man/women or beast? That is crazy enough to not just watch Big Brother but also place a wager on it has my ear.

4) Badbeat - if I'm not mistaken this is Neil Channing, another who would get an invite to the dinner party, just so I could bend his ear about horse racing. He must have a large brain.

5) The Camel - Obviously a person of high intelligence, I saw a post yesterday by Tal, He questioned why a horse was running so far away. Camel said there was probably a buyer, once the horse won the trainer said he was up for sale. What a call. Also the line" I doubt he's the second coming of Sprinter Sacre"  had me chuckling.

So there u have it, top 5 in order and Chompy takes the bronze!!!! Look forward to getting and adding value.

You would have earned earn instant promotion to Senior Thread Elder, Mr Omm but foir the inexplicable inclusion of Chompy. Unforgiveable error. 

[tikay]

BET DISCUSSION

CRYSTAL PALACE to finish bottom at 13/5 Coral

Biggest price by a fair way in the market.

Squad basically struggled towards end of last season.

Could easily argue it is a bit weaker if anything than last season.

Cardiff and to a lesser extent Hull seem more likely to spend than Palace do.


I very rarely bet in the premiership but this stood out a bit to me?

Thanks horsey, I got on this earlier today, but I've been pre-occupied since with my runner beans.

We have £50 @ 13/5, Coral, Crystal Palace to finish bottom of the Premier League.

ON


14/08/2013 09:33AM



Single
To Win

£ 50.00

Crystal Palace - Finish Bottom - Premier League Finish Bottom 2013/14 @ 13/5


£ 0.00

If you don't mind tying the funds up you can bet 4/7 just be relegated with Coral and that is better than Betfair.

Does it make sense to back both?

I can see the logic of having, say, £80 @ 4/7 to make our "Bottom" bet fireproof though. And it may well win both ways.