Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

Bentekkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkke.

boom. (personal brag)

Manager of the Month award, great spot btw!

[horseplayer]

corners weighed in

[hector62]

Mr T.

Don't forget Big Adz's bet on Dustin Johnson. He didn't suggest an amount but £10 e/w should be fine.

[tikay]

corners weighed in

Lovely spot, well done.

No idea how you guys find these really obscure bets, I really don't.

[tikay]

Mr T.

Don't forget Big Adz's bet on Dustin Johnson. He didn't suggest an amount but £10 e/w should be fine.

Ooh, ta, I'm not around tomorrow morning, so I'll do it after my Ovaltine, just before bed tonight.

[tikay]

Boom!

2-0 the Arse.

[doubleup]

Oooohhhhh!

Will send tonight, think you double your £40.  

Cheers Neil

I should just add that I don't think everybody was excited about 8 places in the Open, think it was just me!

hmmmm

I don't think this race actually offered anything like the each way value of golf

If we assume that betfair sp win and place odds are close to true probability then the bookmakers return at sp for 1 unit ew for the first ten in the betting.

1.91
1.87
2.03
1.78
1.74
2.06
1.61 (demora)
2.07
1.54
2.01

obv Neils skills at horse selection are undeniable, but this would have been a better win bet imo.

A better win bet compared to the place value of top 4/5 places in a 17 runner race?

I really don't get this logic at all.

Demora's price on betfair before the off was about 16-1, with the place part trading way under 3/1.

Demora returned 12/1, so we got 3/1 on the place part of the bet, with top 5 places paid if we'd bet with skybet.

I actually don't really get the top ten list point at all.

demoras bf place sp was 4.5 and its win sp was 17

the point should be obvious

these 16 runner handicaps don't provide anything like the ew value of 8 runner/uncompetitive stakes/maiden races


nb the top 5 issue is a different point - I'm just debunking the notion that 4 places ew handicaps are value

[BigAdz]

Boom!

2-0 the Arse.

Great manager!...;o)


He was right. We only need a 13 man squad!

[Marky147]

Cheers mate, I'm sure it's done correctly.
1800 707 707 is the free phone number to call when you want a hostel. They can be a bit rough, mind you:)

It all went through fine, I couldn't see the picture that I attached when I previewed for some reason, but it was fine when posted.

Cheers, I'm hoping that my days of needing shelter after a night out are done... I will store it just in case though

[Nico29]

Oooohhhhh!

Will send tonight, think you double your £40.  

Cheers Neil

I should just add that I don't think everybody was excited about 8 places in the Open, think it was just me!

hmmmm

I don't think this race actually offered anything like the each way value of golf

If we assume that betfair sp win and place odds are close to true probability then the bookmakers return at sp for 1 unit ew for the first ten in the betting.

1.91
1.87
2.03
1.78
1.74
2.06
1.61 (demora)
2.07
1.54
2.01

obv Neils skills at horse selection are undeniable, but this would have been a better win bet imo.

A better win bet compared to the place value of top 4/5 places in a 17 runner race?

I really don't get this logic at all.

Demora's price on betfair before the off was about 16-1, with the place part trading way under 3/1.

Demora returned 12/1, so we got 3/1 on the place part of the bet, with top 5 places paid if we'd bet with skybet.

I actually don't really get the top ten list point at all.

demoras bf place sp was 4.5 and its win sp was 17

the point should be obvious

these 16 runner handicaps don't provide anything like the ew value of 8 runner/uncompetitive stakes/maiden races


nb the top 5 issue is a different point - I'm just debunking the notion that 4 places ew handicaps are value

I am very shocked the betfair sp on the place of Demura was 4.5, it had been trading around 3.5 for most of the afternoon.

Still don't get your top 10 point nor the numbers, demura 1.61 for example-what does this mean exactly?

Personally I don't think you are debunking the value of 16/17 runner handicap races being each way value at all.

I'm sure Neil could explain my point better tbh.

Just find your points a little confusing.

[tikay]

No they really aren't good, and Turkey isn't the place that people picture out of Midnight Express. Arsenal were way too big at 2.75, and are now about right. Just the spread firms haven't moved their prices so are now miles out. Selling Fenerbache at -0.1 is obviously a max

3-0 now.

Dubai knew.

Hope he got the lot.

[tikay]

Chelsea lead 2-1.

[doubleup]

assuming betfair sps are close to true odds -

if demuras place sp was 4.5, it would get placed 22% of the time,

its win odds at 18 imply that it will win 5.6% 0f the time

So the bookies odds were 12-1 a win and 3-1 a place

the win return is 5.6% of 13 = .722

the place return is 22% of 4 = .889

So the return for the ew bet is 1.61


I did the same calc for the first ten in the betting to make the point in general*



*obv i have a spreadsheet to do it 

[Karabiner]

Boom!

2-0 the Arse.

Great manager!...;o)


He was right. We only need a 13 man squad!

He is a great manager and this is a kick in the teeth for the knockers.

Some so-called Arsenal fans apparently wanted us to lose tonight to increase the pressure on the club and on Arsene, well stick 3-0 away in your eyes boys.

[redarmi]

Sorry doubleup but you are way off base here.  I can't really specifically comment on this race as I wasn't watching the market here but 16/17 runner races are very good value but whats more important is that they are also not account killers in the same way as the traditional bad e/w races.  It is very, very easy to find horses that are trading at 16/1 on the shows which are 17.5 to lay on BF and 3.8 the place.   Often there are 5 or 6 in the same race.  With a bit of price shopping in the morning and often an extra place or some kind of an offer they should be (and are) a cornerstone of advantage sports bettors arsenal.  Any semblance of idea about racing obviously adds to this.  Even in your figures there are three bets that would be +EV from 10 runners and this disregards the fact that arbers create a lot of supply on the lay side in these races and some runners are often a bit bigger than they should be on Betfair.