Tips for Tikay

[BigAdz]

Ralph.

I dont need to defend my thoughts same as you dont, but I am equally glad to see us win ANY game.

Still dont stop me thinking he has handled everything terribly, even if we win 20-0

[Nico29]

assuming betfair sps are close to true odds -

if demuras place sp was 4.5, it would get placed 22% of the time,

its win odds at 18 imply that it will win 5.6% 0f the time

So the bookies odds were 12-1 a win and 3-1 a place

the win return is 5.6% of 13 = .722

the place return is 22% of 4 = .889

So the return for the ew bet is 1.61

Neil said the following in his post:

The first race at York is a great example. If you simply divide the best price on odds-checker of all the runners by four you'll find that 16/16 times the figure you have is bigger than the place market on Betfair.

I don't know about betfair sp, i've never used the thing, but I do know that the above was correct at the time and pretty much for the entire run up to the race.

I really think it would be helpful doubleup if you could explain exactly what you mean by these returns you speak of, I don't understand the point you are making tbh*

I believe that in the demura example the horse just drifted like a barge and that the place part returned an unusually large number.

*Ok it's a bit late, sorry I get ya now, 1.61 thus not returning your stake of 2 units. My question is with the betfair sp anyway, am not realy sure about how that works exactly.

[nirvana]

This is what I'm talking bout, I make the original recommend and then some complete Cornetto rejects the tip.

6:23pm
btw, Fenerbutch 0 - 3 Arsenal
recommend a pony

Ars are shite though
Can't do it, not even for £2

yuh tey are
but fenerbash are worse

hostile fans tho
rec £3 on Fennerbatch

[Nico29]

Sorry doubleup but you are way off base here.  I can't really specifically comment on this race as I wasn't watching the market here but 16/17 runner races are very good value but whats more important is that they are also not account killers in the same way as the traditional bad e/w races.  It is very, very easy to find horses that are trading at 16/1 on the shows which are 17.5 to lay on BF and 3.8 the place.   Often there are 5 or 6 in the same race.  With a bit of price shopping in the morning and often an extra place or some kind of an offer they should be (and are) a cornerstone of advantage sports bettors arsenal.  Any semblance of idea about racing obviously adds to this.  Even in your figures there are three bets that would be +EV from 10 runners and this disregards the fact that arbers create a lot of supply on the lay side in these races and some runners are often a bit bigger than they should be on Betfair.

Baically this is what i was trying to say.

[TheDazzler]

Swings and roundabouts. Chelsea were so lucky tonight. As lucky as Villa were to win at Arsenal maybe.
Arsenal conceded a penalty that never was and had a player sent off incorrectly.
Chelsea should have had a player sent off (who then went on to score the winner!) and also should have conceded a penalty that was never given.

[bobby1]

Meanwhile Fulham are 5/2 at home to Arsenal at the weekend

An Arsenal with 13 fit first team players, and it appears Sagna at centre back against Berbatov and Bent

and coming back from Turkey mid-week when Fulham have been manicuring their cuticles in West London.

Sagnas best 2 games last year were at centre back and he even played there in preseason a couple of times. Fulham are absolute dross, Fred can have anything they want with me at 5/2

Only my opinion obviously but I think the markets these days way overrate factors that I call "Moneyball" things. Travelling home is one of them- unless Cazorla and Wilshere have to row home its hardly even an inconvience. I might write a piece about the "moneyball" factors- going to play in a "hostile environment like Turkey" is one for sure. Its not like they spend a night in a Turkish borstal after getting off a Ryanair flight

Just catching up about 15 pages but I have bet Arsenal at 13/10 for this game, think tonight's result is a boost not a hindrance myself tho the injury to Kosh not ideal.

[doubleup]

Nico if you can't understand that calc, I can't help futher sorry


Redarmi I could go through the whole race but the longer prices rarely have any value so I doubt there is any point.

Do you agree with the assumption that the betfair odds will be fairly close to true odds?  In that case there are 4 marginal ew bets and a lot of bad ones.

The ev on some golf ew bets (which was where I came in) is much higher.  The ev on ew stakes race is much higher.  The reason bookies are happy to accept bets on 16 runner handicaps should be obvious - punters aren't selective enough.

This is meant to be a thread to discuss gambling - if I've made a maths mistake in my approach then fine - if I haven't what is your point.

[bobby1]

By amazing chance, TWO Fred Elders just bumped into each other in the Ring at York. Small world.

They are busy punishing.

How about this for a stroke of luck Tony, we both chatted about the last 2 races and Keith thought one in the next might be a 7/2 chance but would prob be friendless coz the trainer has a terrible record there. It won at 6/1. I mentioned one in the last I liked a little which also won. Bit of a turnaround to the day there.

[tikay]

By amazing chance, TWO Fred Elders just bumped into each other in the Ring at York. Small world.

They are busy punishing.

How about this for a stroke of luck Tony, we both chatted about the last 2 races and Keith thought one in the next might be a 7/2 chance but would prob be friendless coz the trainer has a terrible record there. It won at 6/1. I mentioned one in the last I liked a little which also won. Bit of a turnaround to the day there.

Lovely. Did Jake back any winners?

[Marky147]

By amazing chance, TWO Fred Elders just bumped into each other in the Ring at York. Small world.

They are busy punishing.

How about this for a stroke of luck Tony, we both chatted about the last 2 races and Keith thought one in the next might be a 7/2 chance but would prob be friendless coz the trainer has a terrible record there. It won at 6/1. I mentioned one in the last I liked a little which also won. Bit of a turnaround to the day there.

Some race that Broxbourne won too Phil, thousands got traded right down to 1.01 on Party Line, and I think there was even a couple quid matched at 500/1 on Broxbourne!

[Nico29]

Nico if you can't understand that calc, I can't help futher sorry


Redarmi I could go through the whole race but the longer prices rarely have any value so I doubt there is any point.

Do you agree with the assumption that the betfair odds will be fairly close to true odds?  In that case there are 4 marginal ew bets and a lot of bad ones.

The ev on some golf ew bets (which was where I came in) is much higher.  The ev on ew stakes race is much higher.  The reason bookies are happy to accept bets on 16 runner handicaps should be obvious - punters aren't selective enough.

This is meant to be a thread to discuss gambling - if I've made a maths mistake in my approach then fine - if I haven't what is your point.

I understood the calc mate, I just didn't immediately get it as you didn't really explain your point imo.

Obviously  you are very clued up on this sort of thing, maybe you could be a little more basic in your explanation.

I guess betfair sp is their own version of sp, i've never bet on that as i've always disliked betfair's little 'improvements', bar their exchange I feel they often rip the punter off, the sportsbook for example seems a joke in terms of value.

Just feel you are rather aloof in your statements of 'fact' on this subject, it's one race you are disecting yet this proves their is little value each way in 16/17 runner races?

One thing I do agree with is that punters aren't selective enough, that's what I struggle with myself.

However, Neil's horse was selected brilliantly I thought and was def at the time a terrific each way bet, not a much better win bet at all.

[bobby1]

By amazing chance, TWO Fred Elders just bumped into each other in the Ring at York. Small world.

They are busy punishing.

How about this for a stroke of luck Tony, we both chatted about the last 2 races and Keith thought one in the next might be a 7/2 chance but would prob be friendless coz the trainer has a terrible record there. It won at 6/1. I mentioned one in the last I liked a little which also won. Bit of a turnaround to the day there.

Some race that Broxbourne won too Phil, thousands got traded right down to 1.01 on Party Line, and I think there was even a couple quid matched at 500/1 on Broxbourne!

Was some finish that wasn't it and was the only winner to come from well behind all day, might be worth keeping that in mind 2morrow, front runners/ones that took up the running a long way out ran great in the two sprint hcaps plus Treaty of Paris in the 7f.

If Jake followed his dad I think he will have had a good day Tony ;o)

[tikay]

Villa scores a tremendous goal for ATM, we have 35 minutes for Team Messi to reply now.

Good start.

[doubleup]

obv neil knows how to pick a winner and that has nothing to do with my general point (which I had observed previously and was illustrated in this race) is that there isn't as much value as many think in these races and if you back them blind you aren't going to win,  also you can get caught out with withdrawals.

I don't think I was being aloof - tetchy and intolerant more like.

betfair sp is just roughly the last prices that were available before the off, and is usually close to 100% book (its more than that but that will be ok as a description)

[redarmi]

I have just taken a look at the last race at York tomorrow as an example.  It is a 17 runner handicap and if you took best price on oddschecker (Obviously excluding the exchanges but I also excluded Betbright because I don't know anything about them) then the place book adds up to 385% and to be profitable it would need to be 400%+.  If you are selective with the horses you back you should be able to beat Betfair on the win prices or get very close which is giving you a very healthy advantage on the place element of the bet and that is just your starting point.  You can add EV by understanding and studying the race.  Is it as good as 8 places on the golf or betting a second favourite e/w in a race where the jolly is 1/4?  No probably not but these races occur every day often more than once and if you want to win at the game they are a constant source of profits.  You probably only make a couple of percentage points on them unless you are a good judge but you will win in the long run.  If bookies thought they could get away with not offering them anymore they would change them without a doubt.