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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16363639 times)
Marky147
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« Reply #49815 on: August 21, 2013, 10:26:52 PM »


By amazing chance, TWO Fred Elders just bumped into each other in the Ring at York. Small world.

They are busy punishing.


How about this for a stroke of luck Tony, we both chatted about the last 2 races and Keith thought one in the next might be a 7/2 chance but would prob be friendless coz the trainer has a terrible record there. It won at 6/1. I mentioned one in the last I liked a little which also won. Bit of a turnaround to the day there.

Some race that Broxbourne won too Phil, thousands got traded right down to 1.01 on Party Line, and I think there was even a couple quid matched at 500/1 on Broxbourne!

Was some finish that wasn't it and was the only winner to come from well behind all day, might be worth keeping that in mind 2morrow, front runners/ones that took up the running a long way out ran great in the two sprint hcaps plus Treaty of Paris in the 7f.

If Jake followed his dad I think he will have had a good day Tony ;o)

Great viewing for someone who was already dead, and glad that you were both on the right end of it anyway.
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doubleup
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« Reply #49816 on: August 21, 2013, 10:47:06 PM »

I have just taken a look at the last race at York tomorrow as an example.  It is a 17 runner handicap and if you took best price on oddschecker (Obviously excluding the exchanges but I also excluded Betbright because I don't know anything about them) then the place book adds up to 385% and to be profitable it would need to be 400%+.  If you are selective with the horses you back you should be able to beat Betfair on the win prices or get very close which is giving you a very healthy advantage on the place element of the bet and that is just your starting point.  You can add EV by understanding and studying the race.  Is it as good as 8 places on the golf or betting a second favourite e/w in a race where the jolly is 1/4?  No probably not but these races occur every day often more than once and if you want to win at the game they are a constant source of profits.  You probably only make a couple of percentage points on them unless you are a good judge but you will win in the long run.  If bookies thought they could get away with not offering them anymore they would change them without a doubt.


We are getting a bit closer to agreeing but I can't help thinking that people who make money from these races do so primarily from their judgement (which neil obv has in abundance) rather than the structure of the races.

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tikay
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« Reply #49817 on: August 21, 2013, 10:58:16 PM »

Not sure who our golf correspondent was that got involved in the "just had a kid" bets, but just noticed my fav golfer Dustbin Johnson got engaged this week(to Wayne Gretskys daughter!). Does that count?!

Coupled with the fact he won the event 2011 and top tenned last year, it wont take much for me to go in hard!!!

Done, thanks.

We got 22/1 with FIVE places (quarter odds)with Coral. For those interested, PP go SIX places, but I can't get on.

£10 EW @ 22/1, Corals, Justingaged Johnson, Barclays Golf.

ON

Dustin Johnson22/1Outright - 22/08/2013
Each Way
Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£295.00
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £295.00
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redarmi
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« Reply #49818 on: August 21, 2013, 10:59:02 PM »

Obviously it is a big advantage to have a good opinion but it is often overrated too in terms of the work that is required and return for that.  If you start with the premise, like in these races, that you have an advantage already then you will can increase your turnover for much less work.  I hope Neil will forgive me for saying it but a lot of his bets can be identified by these kind of short cuts.  He finds an advantage of some sort and then applies his judgement to increase his returns.  I am the same.  i would rather spend my time looking for angles I can use again and again rather than spending hours on every event looking for mispricing.  Even if I am an awful judge I should at least break even in the long run then and these 16/17 runner races are great for taking that kind of approach.  I can bet them and get a 2-3% edge for five minutes work.
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tikay
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« Reply #49819 on: August 21, 2013, 10:59:55 PM »



Our Super Copa BTTS bet lost.

Glad I don't have to watch the 2nd half, horrible theatrics by the players, though the Villa goal made it worthwhile.
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tikay
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« Reply #49820 on: August 21, 2013, 11:03:25 PM »


That's me done, Ovaltine & all.

Am offline all tomorrow morning, but will be back Online in plenty of time for York.

If any York stuff goes up overnight, I may be able to get on early in the morning before I set off on my journey.
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Marky147
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« Reply #49821 on: August 21, 2013, 11:04:12 PM »


That's me done, Ovaltine & all.

Am offline all tomorrow morning, but will be back Online in plenty of time for York.

If any York stuff goes up overnight, I may be able to get on early in the morning before I set off on my journey.

You're on £10ew with PP @ 22/1 Tikay (if you want it ofc)
« Last Edit: August 21, 2013, 11:06:30 PM by Marky147 » Logged

Doobs
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« Reply #49822 on: August 21, 2013, 11:08:17 PM »


That's me done, Ovaltine & all.

Am offline all tomorrow morning, but will be back Online in plenty of time for York.

If any York stuff goes up overnight, I may be able to get on early in the morning before I set off on my journey.

Your on £10ew with PP @ 22/1 Tikay.

Betfair pays 25/1 with just better than 5.5/1 the place first 5.

Edit.  PP prob beats this, Coral doesn't.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2013, 11:10:14 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
bobby1
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« Reply #49823 on: August 21, 2013, 11:09:01 PM »

Good news for the various Cincy bets you have Tony is Pittsburgh's rookie running back Le'Von Bell is out for a minimum of 6 weeks with a lisfranc injury. That is a an injury that  is difficult to get fully fit from even when you are declared fit enough to train again. They were rather hoping he might lift their running game.


We have three options really, stick with the bet we have on Cincy at 23/10
Have a little more on Cincy at 9/4
Or if you want to get against Pitts and have Cincy running for you at 23/10 and 9/4 and can get on with Pinny who are almost 3/1 Baltimore for the Div we can bet close to 4/5 either Cincy or Baltimore win the Div.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the one team to win the Div or two teams against Pittsburgh?

Edit. Just to add Baltimore have a pretty tough looking out of Div schedule this year which I feel was the reason that Pitts were put in so short in the early Div quotes.


« Last Edit: August 21, 2013, 11:36:48 PM by bobby1 » Logged

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Marky147
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« Reply #49824 on: August 21, 2013, 11:10:54 PM »


That's me done, Ovaltine & all.

Am offline all tomorrow morning, but will be back Online in plenty of time for York.

If any York stuff goes up overnight, I may be able to get on early in the morning before I set off on my journey.

Your on £10ew with PP @ 22/1 Tikay.

Betfair pays 25/1 with just better than 5.5/1 the place first 5

My maths isn't good enough to know what paying 6 spots does to the bet?
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Doobs
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« Reply #49825 on: August 21, 2013, 11:42:44 PM »


That's me done, Ovaltine & all.

Am offline all tomorrow morning, but will be back Online in plenty of time for York.

If any York stuff goes up overnight, I may be able to get on early in the morning before I set off on my journey.

Your on £10ew with PP @ 22/1 Tikay.

Betfair pays 25/1 with just better than 5.5/1 the place first 5

My maths isn't good enough to know what paying 6 spots does to the bet?

It was edited before you replied
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
rfgqqabc
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« Reply #49826 on: August 22, 2013, 12:02:12 AM »

.
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Marky147
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« Reply #49827 on: August 22, 2013, 12:04:01 AM »


That's me done, Ovaltine & all.

Am offline all tomorrow morning, but will be back Online in plenty of time for York.

If any York stuff goes up overnight, I may be able to get on early in the morning before I set off on my journey.

Your on £10ew with PP @ 22/1 Tikay.

Betfair pays 25/1 with just better than 5.5/1 the place first 5

My maths isn't good enough to know what paying 6 spots does to the bet?

It was edited before you replied

I went to reply right away, but got sidetracked and didn't double check before posting.

Got it now, thanks.

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Tal
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« Reply #49828 on: August 22, 2013, 12:34:57 AM »

Good news for the various Cincy bets you have Tony is Pittsburgh's rookie running back Le'Von Bell is out for a minimum of 6 weeks with a lisfranc injury. That is a an injury that  is difficult to get fully fit from even when you are declared fit enough to train again. They were rather hoping he might lift their running game.


We have three options really, stick with the bet we have on Cincy at 23/10
Have a little more on Cincy at 9/4
Or if you want to get against Pitts and have Cincy running for you at 23/10 and 9/4 and can get on with Pinny who are almost 3/1 Baltimore for the Div we can bet close to 4/5 either Cincy or Baltimore win the Div.

Does anyone have any thoughts on the one team to win the Div or two teams against Pittsburgh?

Edit. Just to add Baltimore have a pretty tough looking out of Div schedule this year which I feel was the reason that Pitts were put in so short in the early Div quotes.




http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000232067/article/denver-broncos-are-not-elite-baltimore-ravens-defense-is-back

At point two, Schein says not only will the Ravens have a good defence and not only will they win the division, but they will have a better defence than last season.

They have to write stuff to provoke debate I'm sure, but that seems quite a statement.

Other than the obvious and deciding for yourself whether the New Jersey Turtlechuckers will finish above the Los Angeles Omlets (N.B. the spelling), is there a mathematical method for deciding which approach is better? Tighty's analysis for the Titans bet was very much comparing his own subjective analysis against the odds-setter's. Is there an objective equivalent?

By way of explanation, there are a few bets put up ITT that are fundamentally +EV bets even if you don't know who or what you are betting on: the dirty each ways in 7 horse races, a disparity in the odds on a market where one bookie is slow to react, an enhanced offer for first goalscorer or whatever. These bets can be placed without fear of recrimination, although they can be more profitable if selected wisely by adding your own knowledge of the field and choosing which ones you bet on.

A long while ago, I proposed a bet on a chess player to win a tournament. I had found a simulation that someone had carried out and compared it to the price available for that player to win. It was good. However, it was better when I was able to use my knowledge of the tournament, the players involved, form and so on to give what I believed to be a truer price. We did a bet and (sample size of one) we did a win.

I am getting to the point, I promise.

Bobby asks whether we should be topping up on Cincy or adding a bet on another team in the division, Baltimore. I'm not sure subjective analysis is enough of itself to justify either increasing our bet on Cincy or hedging with Baltimore. If we are saying that there is an error in the numbers somewhere and we are making money betting objectively, that's great. The nut scenario is to have a market edge in the numbers AND a knowledge/application edge in our analysis. Then we can really feel confident that we are getting our money in good.

With long sweats at small prices, perhaps I'm being petty by saying it's more important to be really confident that we have a notable edge, as there are so many variables and it takes so long for our EV to become Wonga.

I know Bobby knows all this and that he and others understand it far better than I've... y'know... nearly described what I think I mean. If someone can make sense of it and turn the above into English, you may have five Tal Points.
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« Reply #49829 on: August 22, 2013, 12:51:59 AM »

I don't know much/anything about Le'Von Bell but I must admit my first thought when I read Phil's post was that that injury alone wouldn't be enough to make me want to bet against Pitt in the division.  Over time it could prove to be a huge injury but I just wouldn't be sure enough of the difference he was going to make and I would suggest the fact he was a second round pick means neither were a lot of general managers.
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