Tips for Tikay

[a.sparrow]

Wouldn't put you off at all at 16-1.

There was a time when you'd be careful if Ladbrokes went top price but not any more. Their racing odds compilers are among the worst now imo. Not that any of them really compile odds.

Cheers chompy, my money is down anyway, was just wondering if there was anything in it for fred or anyone else who liked it for that matter.  Alsio are these the type of races generally you should back win only and avoid each way as the terms are in the bookies favour?

[ripple11]

Oh well, seemed large to me at 4/11 when perhaps 1/4 or 1/5 would have been more appropriate.

3-0 FT  

Cheers...had a dollop of ice cream on it.

[redarmi]

Looking for some feedback from more experience horse racing punters if possible, and if positive then maybe a recommended bet for Fred will come from it.

Looking through tomorrows card and i find Xinbama interesting in the 4:50 at Epsom.  It finished 9th from 17 on it's last race at goodwood but i've just watched the race and it looked like it was making a run for it from the rear before getting cutup badly and having to swoop around the back of the field to the other side of the track to get a run and seems to me to have been unlucky.  Previous to that it won twice over course and distance (only horse in the race to have done so), also with the same jockey on board. 

It's currently top price ladbrokes 16/1, and as low as 10/1 elsewhere, also 11 on betfair currently but no liquidity so prob can't use that as a guide.  I also read somewhere that if a horse is top price on ladbrokes that they know its a non trier!

It seems to have a weight of 9-4 tomorrow and its previous two wins at that course and distance it was weighted 9-11 and 9-9 if im reading correctly?  Or does that not include the jockets 7lb claim? so maybe tomorrow its weighted at 9-11 including the jockeys claim and the same weight it won at previously?

Tomorrow looks like good to soft, soft in places, and this horse has never won on that ground so maybe a negative.

It still seems to me that their may be some value in it, but i am really quite new in this horse game and still learning, so if anyone would like check the race out and see if they agree that would be great.

I am a bit out of touch with racing in UK as it is too early for me nowadays but couple of points from my experience.

 C&D wins at Epsom are very important there.  It is a unique track and a fair few horses don't handle it.  The run in is downhill though and that doesn't neccesarily suit hold up horses as the front runners tend to tire a bit less (imagine running in a race downhill yourself and giving someone a start).

 Ground is a negative.  I would really like my horse to have some form on soft and it only appears to have run once on softish ground and finished 6/15 at 22/1.  The weight doesnt include the jockeys claim and a 7lb claimer generally needs their claim and, whilst the best are normally very good value for their claim the worst can be very bad especially somewhere like Epsom where you need to keep your horse balanced.  That said this girl seems alright and won the last two times on the horse so shouldnt be a significant negative.  The weight, however, is less important that the handicap mark and those two wins were off 72 and he is running off 78 today so that is a negative.

The Ladbrokes thing is overdone.  They are well connected to some stables (Aidan O'Brien being the most important) but somewhere like John Hills wouldn't be someone I would think their odds compilers would have a good in with.  They might but I can't imagine them going out of their way to cultivate that relationship and if he bet with them then they would not find out until tomorrow I would have thought.  The differential is fairly big but not that unusual and probably not significant in its own right.  If the horse had been laid for a bit at below that on BF in the morning that would obviously be more significant.

Think one factor you have missed which is important is it is up in class.  This race is worth 9k to the winner and is a Class 3 handicap whereas the other two wins were a class 4 and 5 hcap so it is carrying a higher weight in a higher class and failed in this class last time (possibly unluckily).  

Without looking at the other runners in the race it doesn't look to me like it should be an 8-1 chance but also I would probably be willing to take a chance on it at a big price (20/1+) especially if I was confident in my reading of its last race as that isn't reflected in the race comments.  At 16/1 it doesn't seem awful but probably not amazing either.  Obv others might have a different view though and be more qualified to comment.

[Doobs]

Chappell -10 joint 3rd
Furyk and Watson 1 behind joint 6th

[ripple11]

Wouldn't put you off at all at 16-1.

There was a time when you'd be careful if Ladbrokes went top price but not any more. Their racing odds compilers are among the worst now imo. Not that any of them really compile odds.

Cheers chompy, my money is down anyway, was just wondering if there was anything in it for fred or anyone else who liked it for that matter.  Alsio are these the type of races generally you should back win only and avoid each way as the terms are in the bookies favour?

Twice course and distance winner, and the same jockey, at an undulating track such as Epsom is certainly a big positive. The lack of any running/form on soft/good to soft ground is a disappointing part of the puzzle for me  

 Good luck!

[a.sparrow]

Looking for some feedback from more experience horse racing punters if possible, and if positive then maybe a recommended bet for Fred will come from it.

Looking through tomorrows card and i find Xinbama interesting in the 4:50 at Epsom.  It finished 9th from 17 on it's last race at goodwood but i've just watched the race and it looked like it was making a run for it from the rear before getting cutup badly and having to swoop around the back of the field to the other side of the track to get a run and seems to me to have been unlucky.  Previous to that it won twice over course and distance (only horse in the race to have done so), also with the same jockey on board. 

It's currently top price ladbrokes 16/1, and as low as 10/1 elsewhere, also 11 on betfair currently but no liquidity so prob can't use that as a guide.  I also read somewhere that if a horse is top price on ladbrokes that they know its a non trier!

It seems to have a weight of 9-4 tomorrow and its previous two wins at that course and distance it was weighted 9-11 and 9-9 if im reading correctly?  Or does that not include the jockets 7lb claim? so maybe tomorrow its weighted at 9-11 including the jockeys claim and the same weight it won at previously?

Tomorrow looks like good to soft, soft in places, and this horse has never won on that ground so maybe a negative.

It still seems to me that their may be some value in it, but i am really quite new in this horse game and still learning, so if anyone would like check the race out and see if they agree that would be great.

I am a bit out of touch with racing in UK as it is too early for me nowadays but couple of points from my experience.

 C&D wins at Epsom are very important there.  It is a unique track and a fair few horses don't handle it.  The run in is downhill though and that doesn't neccesarily suit hold up horses as the front runners tend to tire a bit less (imagine running in a race downhill yourself and giving someone a start).

 Ground is a negative.  I would really like my horse to have some form on soft and it only appears to have run once on softish ground and finished 6/15 at 22/1.  The weight doesnt include the jockeys claim and a 7lb claimer generally needs their claim and, whilst the best are normally very good value for their claim the worst can be very bad especially somewhere like Epsom where you need to keep your horse balanced.  That said this girl seems alright and won the last two times on the horse so shouldnt be a significant negative.  The weight, however, is less important that the handicap mark and those two wins were off 72 and he is running off 78 today so that is a negative.

The Ladbrokes thing is overdone.  They are well connected to some stables (Aidan O'Brien being the most important) but somewhere like John Hills wouldn't be someone I would think their odds compilers would have a good in with.  They might but I can't imagine them going out of their way to cultivate that relationship and if he bet with them then they would not find out until tomorrow I would have thought.  The differential is fairly big but not that unusual and probably not significant in its own right.  If the horse had been laid for a bit at below that on BF in the morning that would obviously be more significant.

Think one factor you have missed which is important is it is up in class.  This race is worth 9k to the winner and is a Class 3 handicap whereas the other two wins were a class 4 and 5 hcap so it is carrying a higher weight in a higher class and failed in this class last time (possibly unluckily).  

Without looking at the other runners in the race it doesn't look to me like it should be an 8-1 chance but also I would probably be willing to take a chance on it at a big price (20/1+) especially if I was confident in my reading of its last race as that isn't reflected in the race comments.  At 16/1 it doesn't seem awful but probably not amazing either.  Obv others might have a different view though and be more qualified to comment.

Excellent post Redarmi and I really appreciate the time you've taken to give me some insight, all helps with the learning curve!

Definately looks like the ground is a negative at good to soft then, and as you quite rightly pointed out i did miss that it has been upped in class (rookie mistake and something i won't do again). Positive of the only course and distance winner is about the only positive then.  

Not a bet for fred though at 16/1 it seems.  Also notice betvictor have pushed out to 16/1, i assume due to money for the top two horses in the betting.  A small shame that I bet it on ladbrokes before betvictor pushed out to joint top price as they have best odds guarenteed now, but ladbrokes only give best odds from 9am of the morning on the race, so any drift will not be added to the price.  

I'm off to see if i can watch its two course and distance wins at Epsom before and see if it ran from the front those times.

Thanks again!

[a.sparrow]

Thanks Ripple.  Also just to say betvictor are still 14s, Xinbama and discression swtiched places on my odds checker screen and confused me.

[Marky147]

Chappell just asploded over the last 1/2 dozen holes

[tikay]

Chappell just asploded over the last 1/2 dozen holes

Really feel for these guys when that happens. The prressure must be overwhelming, and of course they know they have failed with the eyes of the world upon them. It's what seperates winners from losers, but it has to pinch a bit.

[Marky147]

Chappell just asploded over the last 1/2 dozen holes

Really feel for these guys when that happens. The prressure must be overwhelming, and of course they know they have failed with the eyes of the world upon them. It's what seperates winners from losers, but it has to pinch a bit.

Yeah, they've got to have some minerals about them, and I imagine that it will take something special to separate him from the bottle for a couple days...

What about Woods though, been walking around like me for the last 10 holes, and then is inches from coming back to make it a playoff with Scott!

[Doobs]

Chappell just asploded over the last 1/2 dozen holes

Really feel for these guys when that happens. The prressure must be overwhelming, and of course they know they have failed with the eyes of the world upon them. It's what seperates winners from losers, but it has to pinch a bit.

All gone a bit wrong, after looking so promising half way round.  Matt Kuchar was such a short price overnight too.  Furyk gets us a share of something, but not much.  Bubba almost did too.  I also have Justin Rose myself.  

On to the next one

[redarmi]

It was a great bet.  Can't help thinking in these spots sometimes it is better if they don't contend in terms fo the place money.  Was a tough course today though.

[Chompy]

Back to Xinbama...

His last four runs have all been good, including his latest unlucky effort. All were in the tongue tie, all came for a female jockey, and three of them came round switchback courses. I'm with Redarmi here, some horses are happier round switchback tracks, ie, Epsom, Goodwood, Brighton and Lingfield. And he's obviously one of them.

His two previous runs on slow ground were inconclusive for me. First time he got smacked around by another horse; second time he met traffic when they all came over to the near side at Brighton, which often happens there.

This summer's improvement has come for being ridden more aggressively over further (1m2f).

In other words he has a lot in his favour and I'm actually quite liking him now. This is a decent race, but 16-1 is fine imo.

On soft ground at Epsom they'll come over the near side in the straight, and in those conditions you'd ideally want to be backing a horse that could be in front as they swing in. Like at Catterick when it's soft, whoever grabs the rail in front can be hard to pass, as the other have to switch off the fence in order to come round.

[doubleup]

What a course that would be for the Ryder Cup - I wonder if it will get played there?

[a.sparrow]

Back to Xinbama...

His last four runs have all been good, including his latest unlucky effort. All were in the tongue tie, all came for a female jockey, and three of them came round switchback courses. I'm with Redarmi here, some horses are happier round switchback tracks, ie, Epsom, Goodwood, Brighton and Lingfield. And he's obviously one of them.

His two previous runs on slow ground were inconclusive for me. First time he got smacked around by another horse; second time he met traffic when they all came over to the near side at Brighton, which often happens there.

This summer's improvement has come for being ridden more aggressively over further (1m2f).

In other words he has a lot in his favour and I'm actually quite liking him now. This is a decent race, but 16-1 is fine imo.

On soft ground at Epsom they'll come over the near side in the straight, and in those conditions you'd ideally want to be backing a horse that could be in front as they swing in. Like at Catterick when it's soft, whoever grabs the rail in front can be hard to pass, as the other have to switch off the fence in order to come round.

Looking at his last two wins at Epsom he is very capable of grabbing the rail in front, in stall 5 so he hasn't got to move over too far to get it if he breaks well.  I'm out of my depth in this discuss now but i really appreciate the replies